For the record, I’m a dedicated tax junkie and former editor of the National Tax Journal. But something is wrong when one of the biggest applause lines in a State of the Union address is a call for revenue-neutral corporate tax reform.
Perhaps it was a reflection of the bipartisan seating pattern, which may have stopped waves of partisan applause from building. But I think it was more a reflection of the oddly schizophrenic character of the speech.
Leading up to the president’s speech I thought that there were three possible avenues he could take. He could deliver a “vision speech” that aggressively articulated a vision for addressing America’s vulnerabilities — inadequate job growth and dangerous debt projections driven by burgeoning spending, and the foreign-policy weakness stemming from these — and the policy solutions consistent with that vision. Put differently, he could have chosen to breathe a vision into the budgetary frameworks laid out by his own fiscal commission. Objectively, this would have been a big-risk/big-return speech depending on whether his vision was widely applauded.
Paul Ryan gave that speech. Three cheers.
Alternatively, he could have done a roundup of the past year’s accomplishments, “checked the box” with various political constituencies, listed progressives’ legislative priorities for the next year, and committed his efforts to meeting those goals. This would have had a different big return (from the progressive base) and a different big risk (convincing Americans he’s out of touch with their hopes and concerns).
Instead, we got mostly a series of broad, sweeping vision statements followed by narrow, more-of-the-same policy prescriptions. Take for example innovation. The president praised the government’s widely recognized role in funding basic research. But in the next paragraph, he switched to “research and development” (not the same) and targeted on vague progressive agenda items like clean energy, information technology, and biomedical research. Why those, when the president acknowledged that “none of us can predict … what the next big industry will be”?
Why should 80 percent of electricity come from “clean energy”? How do we get there? Why should 80 percent of Americans have access to high-speed rail? These are proposals, but not a vision of any sort.
On the biggest item on the domestic policy agenda — controlling debt — the president promised a five-year freeze on non-security spending. Super underwhelming.
First, the out-year freezes really don’t have any bite unless he commits to discretionary spending caps, which he has not. Second, the “freeze” bakes into the cake the elevated spending since 2008. A more defensible freeze would acknowledge Republicans’ desires to get back to business-as-usual funding and then freeze spending. Finally, this is a tiny part of the problem. If he is unwilling to actually cut here, where is the seriousness on the budget problem in general?
So I got really excited at the big moment teeing up his entitlement reforms: “Now, most of the cuts and savings I’ve proposed only address annual domestic spending, which represents a little more than 12 percent of our budget. To make further progress, we have to stop pretending that cutting this kind of spending alone will be enough. It won’t.”
And then … nothing.
To be fair, most of these addresses disappoint. And there were nuggets of promise in the emphasis on education, and the acknowledgment that corporate profits are not a bad thing and that corporate tax reform is desirable. But there was little in specifics and it was countered by the pro forma attacks on oil companies and banks, and the stone-walling of fixing the health-care mistake.
In the end, this speech did little to change the landscape.
See a tag cloud of Obama's 2011 State of the Union Address: External Link
And see how it compares to the 2010 State of the Union Address
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTea Party Bigot! Give Obama a chance. He has just delivered the speech of our lifetimes and all you do is find fault. It is hard to overcome the horrors that the Bush-era criminals foisted on us over the past decade. Obama has the vision and ideas that the Texas rodeo clown never had.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr. Obama has demonstrated that even a man "with a gift" cannot turn chicken manure into chicken salad. Joe Biden smiled and nodded his head in agreement occasionally, but it was a relief to see Speaker Boehner taking it in politely instead of Cong Pelosi wearing a red suit and leaping to her feet and applauding wildly after every other sentence.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHoney, my income has gone down for the past two years, I'm laid off, and your spending has gone up for the past four years. We're going broke, and in order to improve things I'm going to insist on a freeze on spending for food which accounts for 12% of our household budget for the next five years. That should take care of our problems. Meanwhile, let's go on a vacation to Aruba for a month.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf the President were to tie every dollar he wants to "invest" (spend) to 2 dollars of spending cuts elsewhere (and not all of that from Defense) then I would be all for it. A spending freeze obviously doesn't come close.
Anyway despite the above caveat, this is the first time I have watched an Obama speech from start to end without my blood pressure going through the roof. So on that score, I call tonight's SOTU a big success. Like Bush before him, I think he is growing into the role. I felt like this was the first time he seemed Presidential, as in, he tried to be above party. The last 2 years (starting with "we won - you lost") he has been very partisan and very dismissive of opposing views. Tonight he struck a new tone, and I felt like he was being sincere. He extended the olive branch tonight, and I for one accept it gladly. Trust, but verify.
So tomorrow I will go back to being a passionate critic of any policies with which I strongly disagree, but for tonight I say, "a fine speech, Mr. President!"
The one point of annoyance was the reference to patdowns leading to laughter from the crowd - a crowd of elites who don't have to be subjected to the indignities of the masses and serfs. But that is an annoyance with Congress, not the President.
I definitely liked the fact that he hit on the issue of cronyism in the business tax code. If he can fulfill that promise, it'll show a lot more leadership than the terrible scene of back room deals that got Obamacare through. And I like that he acknowledged the fact that non-defense discretionary spending is only 12% of the budget, that we have to address entitlements (although he failed to mention the reason Obamacare reduces the defecit is that it raises taxes.) I like his promise to veto any legislation with earmarks. His promise of government spending transparency is nice, but we did hear the same thing back in 2008.
He sounded good - enough to agree with and to disagree with, but the devil is in the details - let's see if the lunatics in his party can be dragged along to actually support a smaller/simpler government agenda. That in itself might be an achievement which carry him to a second term.
PS I like the new seating arrangement not for the fact of them sitting together, but because it limited the overall amount of applause during the speech. I always felt like that was inappropriate - the SOTU is not for Congress to promote their views, but for POTUS to speak to Congress and to the people.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRand Paul's response was the best speech of the night.
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Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFlat in content, and delivery left a lot to be desired too. Not a fan of flourishing finishes or anything, but it seemed to me he expected to give a speech like a campaign speech...to ride the waves of applause as he tends to like to do when he gives a public speech to a friendly crowd. I don't know. Maybe the speech was written before last November and he forgot to update it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHoly cow! This is unbelievable -- DHE nails it within minutes of the conclusion of the speech. Nicely done, Doug.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe trajectory will not change - we're in big trouble - and the Prez doesn't have solutions that impact it substantially in any way. Ryan and friends can't do it alone.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis is the same guy. He'll always BE the same guy.
For anyone buying the soap being sold tonight, I've got 4 words for you - "Charlie Brown and Lucy."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGerri, your argument consists of name-calling:
Tea Party Bigot, Bush-era criminals, Texas rodeo clown.
Really? Name calling?
Schoolyard-level tactics?
What's the point? I truly don't understand.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis speech, like all of his other speeches, still shows that he doesn't genuinely believe in the American dream, personal liberty and capitalism. Any reference to the huge issues we're facing as a nation is always followed up with some reference to big government saving the day. Nothing changed, only some additional bone-throwing to moderates he's trying to win back over.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama is too committed a big government ideologue to change his stripes at this stage, too egotistical and vain to engage in reflection and skeptical assessment of the destructiveness of his policies, too enamored of his self-aggrandizing, ego-based magnanimity in passing Obamacare and other government entitlements, to abandon this course.
Obama will be re-elected in 2012, ensuring that we have another five years of his destructive rule, after which the country will elect a hobbled Republican in 2016 to clean up the mess he has left behind, which will be a hopeless task.
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