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Of Tigers and Tails



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If Mubarak falls and the army keeps to the sidelines, the power vacuum within Egypt is ultimately likely to be filled by the most organized force that remains on the ground — and it’s hard to believe that that force will be made up of middle-class liberals.

With Egypt reportedly mulling a transitional government, one potentially key figure, Mohamed El Baradei, would do well to ponder the political careers of  Iran’s Shapour Bakhtiar (the first transitional prime minister in revolutionary Iran) and, of course, that of Alexander Kerensky. I’d like to be optimistic about how this all will turn out, but the lessons of history would suggest that that might not be wise …



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