Barry Rubin, director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center, and author of books including The Muslim Brotherhood: The Organization and Policies of a Global Islamist Movement, took some questions Sunday from National Review Online on the situation in Egypt.
Kathryn Jean Lopez: Why all this optimism in the media vis-à-vis Egypt? Why do you believe it’s so wrong?
Barry Rubin: Everybody likes the idea of the oppressed and repressed masses rising up against a dictatorship. Both conservatives and liberals find this appealing. And because America is a democratic country and the current wisdom is that everyone all over the world is alike, the assumption is that Egyptians want to have civil rights and freedom. This is reinforced by the Bush-era support for democratic change in the Middle East based on the idea that the dictatorships have indoctrinated the people to be anti-American. That view is true as far as it goes, but one reason why the dictatorships have pushed the political line they do is precisely because they know it will be popular.
But what if this bipartisan preconception is wrong? What if the most likely alternatives are either an Arab-nationalist dictatorship or an Islamist dictatorship? First, the moderate democratic forces are weak, disorganized, and few in number compared with their two rivals. Second, in Egypt especially, many of the “moderate democrats” are quite extremist, even if they are leftist or radical-nationalist rather than Islamist in doctrine.
We also have some precedents: Iran’s revolution (Islamism); Palestinian elections (Hamas); Lebanese democracy (Hezbollah); Algerian free elections (bloody civil war); Turkish democracy (Islamist regime at present). This pattern cannot be ignored, there are reasons for it.
Lopez: You’ve compared U.S. policy in response to what’s going on in Egypt with its policy on recent uprisings in Iran. Why is this an important point?
Rubin: In Iran, the Obama administration generally remained silent and the stolen election, mass opposition movement, and repression had no effect on U.S. policy. Now, as Arab newspapers have noted, the administration is taking a tough line against the Egyptian regime. Why be so lenient when an Islamist enemy of the United States is challenged by democratic dissidents and so tough when a U.S. ally faces a revolt?
Lopez: What would you advise reporters as they watch what is going on?
Rubin: There are three key decisions.
First, will the army and elite push out Mubarak in order to make the regime’s survival more likely?
Second, will the army stick together and step in to restore order? Is it waiting to force Mubarak’s resignation? To wait until people are sick of disruptions and yearn for an end to anarchy? Or because the army is divided and isn’t sure that the troops will obey orders, including firing on civilians? If it is the third, the regime is doomed.
Third, will the Muslim Brotherhood decide that a revolutionary situation is at hand and stake everything on pushing for the regime’s end? The leaders know that if they are wrong they will end up dead or in concentration camps.
Lopez: If a Muslim Brotherhood government rises, what might the repercussions be regionally?
Rubin: If I believed that Egypt would become a moderate, stable, democratic state I would be quite happy. Yet there are many reasons that the possible result — and that’s a strong possibility — is that a new regime would be anti-American, either Islamist or Islamist-radical nationalist, threaten regional stability, stop opposing the Iran-Syria bloc, and go back to war with Israel. Those are pretty high stakes!
Lopez: Why is the Muslim street so anti-American?
Rubin: That is a long answer. Of course, some will say it is purely because of Israel but that’s nonsense. The shortest answer is this: On one hand, they have been indoctrinated by schools (where it is still taught that the United States attacked Egypt in 1967 and destroyed its air force), mosques, and media into anti-Americanism for decades. But it is not all passive, of course. As Arab nationalists, their worldview says America is the enemy, and as Islamists the same point applies. They blame the United States for the existing order — including the current regime — yet they were also anti-American when, before the mid-1970s, the government was also anti-American. The United States is an all-purpose scapegoat.
Lopez: What is the fate of Coptic Christians if there is a dramatic political change in Egypt?
Rubin: Again, it would be nice to imagine that everyone will be brothers in the new Egypt. But one can remember how the Young Turk revolution in the Ottoman Empire began with everyone embracing each other in the streets and ended in the massacre of Armenians. They have a hard time now and will be far worse off in an Islamist state. Even if Egypt became democratic they would keep a low profile, fearing attack from an Islamist opposition.
Lopez: What should we most be paying attention to as we watch events unfold? What should we be encouraging?
Rubin: I explained the three key things to watch above. For me, what would be encouraging is if the army and leadership got rid of Mubarak and his son, took firm hold of the situation, and made some changes to win popular support. But in that context the regime would survive even if the current ruler did not.
Saying these things doesn’t make me happy. I know many Arab reformers, I respect them, and I’d like to see them triumphant. This might happen in Tunisia, but the situation is very different in Egypt. Wishful thinking is neither a good analysis nor a good policy.
Lots of speculation and chatter about the Egyptian army and its appearance of having control and being the decider for whatever outcome ensues.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBut, what about MB infiltration? It was an MB officer who penetrated an elite army unit and assassinated Sadat 30 years ago. Unlike the Pakistani army, is the Egyptian army sufficiently free of MB adherents and influence (notwithstanding its reportedly still close relationship with the US) to steer a 'pro-West' course?
Do you remember when right after 9/11 Ann Coulter said we should invade the Islamic countries behind the attacks, kill their leaders and convert their populations to Christianity. I'm sure it was at least partially tongue in cheek but looking back I'm not so sure it wasn't the absolute best policy we could have adopted.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr. Rubin's analysis seems spot on. The military is the key.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Egyptian army is largely free of Islamist infiltration except perhaps some at the lowest ranks. The real problem is whether privates will fire at civilians, even if they are not themselves Islamists they would look at demonstrators as fellow Egyptians.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDemocracy is the one thing that you can be sure will hot happen in Egypt.
It is very tempting to compare Egypt to some benign example like the Phillipines. The problem is this. In a recent Pew poll, Egyptians were asked who they would favor in free elections, Islamists or secular “modernizers.” The result was Islamists, 57 percent, secular “modernizers” 24 percent. I think the likelihood of a government by the Muslim Brotherhood (many of whom are in the parliament and engage in the most disreputable Jew-baiting) is more likely everyday and ever time Obama or Hillary speak. I can only hope that they are totally cynical and making anodyne public statements while pushing for a crack-down behind the scenes. Otherwise, their statements are inexcusably foolish and reach for temporary applause at the cost of a major national disaster.
This is the first real step towards Al Queda’s goal of reconstruction of the Caliphate. Laugh, if you will, but comes back in five years and tell me what you see. It may be a loose confecderation at the beginning, but it is awful, perhaps fatal, news for Isreal, expecially if the United States takes a “hands off” or "wait and see" view of the situation. Isreal would be wisee to wean itself off United States aid before Obama pulls it to impose an Arab-blessed “peace plan.”
Imagin an Isreal without a friend in the White House (a situation that already exists, although Obama has been careful to hide it) surrounded by Lebanon and Syria, armed by Iran; an Egypt, restored to the Arab rejectionist front, armed by the United States; and Jordan, with the monarchy overthrown and replalced by the dominant Paalestinian majority.
The Jews will be lucky to get a new home in the badlands of Nevada, on federal land, courtesy of the gracious Obama, as a “humanitarian” gesture.
With Turkey going Islamist in slow motion (would the Turkey of 1980 have launched the Gaza flotilla?); Tunisia rocked by riots (the Islamist leader in exile has just returned home); Egypt tottering; Algeria having riots; Jordan convulsed in a non-reported uprising (led by groups who serve as the core of the police and army, not the Palestinians); leaks of documents showing the PLO Palestinians INSUFFICIENTLY militant; predictions that Libya is next (although it is had to believe that Kaddaffi will go quietly); and Pakistan with nukes; we appear to be living in 1938, except with nuclear weapons. No doubt Obama will tell us that this is reason for more “dialogue” and understanding of why they hate us.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseResponse to Kevin M: It is very tempting to compare Egypt to some benign example like the Phillipines. The problem is this. In a recent Pew poll, Egyptians were asked who they would favor in free elections, Islamists or secular “modernists.” The result was Islamists, 57 percent, secular “modernists” 24 percent. I think the likelihood of a Muslim Brotherhood many of whom are in the parliament and engage in the most disreputable Jew-baiting) government is more likely everyday and ever time Obama or Hillary speak. I can only hope that they are totally cynical and making anodyne public statements while pushing for a crack-down behind the scenes. Otherwise, their statements are inexcusably foolish and reach for temporary applause at the cost of a major national disaster.
This is the first real step towards Al Queda’s goal of reconstruction of the Caliphate. Laugh, if you will, but comes back in five years and tell me what you see. It may be a loosse confecderation at the beginning, but it is awful, perhaps fatal, news for Isreal, expecially if the United States takes a “hands off” or tolerant view of the situation. Isreal would be wisee to wean itself off United States aid before Obama pulls it to impose an Arab-blessed “peace plan.”
Imagin an Isreal without a friend in the White House (a situation that already exists, although Obama has been careful to hide it) surrounded by Lebanon and Syria, armed by Iran; an Egypt restored to the Arab rejectionist front, armed by the United States; and Jordan, with the monarchy overthrown and replalced by the dominant Paalestinian majority.
The Jews will be lucky to get a new home in the badlands of Nevada, on federal land, courtesy of the gracious Obama, as a “humanitarian” gesture.
With Turkey going Islamist in slow motion (would the Turkey of 1980 have launched the Gasa flotilla?); Tunisia rocked by riots (the Islamist leader in exile has just announced plans to return home); Egypt tottering; Algeria having riots; Jordan convulsed in a non-reported uprising (led by groups who serve as the core of the police and army, not the Palestinians); leaks of documents showing the PLO Palestinians insufficiently militant; predictions that Libya is next (although it is had to believe that Kaddaffi will go quietly); and Pakistan with nukes; we appear to be living in 2938, except with nuclear weapons. No double Obama will tell us that this is reason for more “dialogue” and understanding of why they hate us.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Lopez: Why is the Muslim street so anti-American?
Rubin: Of course, some will say it is purely because of Israel but that’s nonsense."
I'm afraid Rubin totally discredits himself by saying this- how can any serious analyst say that the Israel/Palestinian issue does not contribute to anti-American feeling. Its a pity as he seemed quite astute in his analysis up to that point.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI am a little alarmed by a large portion of the NRO readership Pollyanna wishfulness for a "democratic" rising in Egypt. The dismissing of the Muslim Brotherhood ascendancy is woefully underestimated and understated. This is the exact time that MB has waited for and when you have ElBariadah lying that they've forsaken violence, it is more credible that the MB has a better chance at having a heavy hand in the result. If we lose Egypt to radical Islam we might as well get out of the area forthwith and hunker down in Europe and safeguard our border.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Washington Times has reported this morning that the Muslim Brotherhood has declared that it will support Ela-Baradei in negotiations with the Mubarak government. Slowly, slowly, the Islamists are slipping into power. In a few months (or weeks) the MB will reign. The US and Israel must prepare now for the worst. As for the latter country, this means military preparations, and even preemptive strikes, especially in the Sinai Peninsula,
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIsrael cannot permit another radical Islamic state a la Iran, on its very borders.
Ms. Lopez, thank you for the interview and work. You asked the question, "Why is the Muslim street so anti-American?"...Mr Rubin started with, "That is a long answer".
The political answer, we can agree is "long". Nevertheless, it affords a possible messy and difficult "political" solution...but a solultion nonetheless. But, to this day, do we really believe that their hatred is politically driven???. Forgive my sketicism but IF the reason for their hatred is not political but religious, what then is the solution???!!! Peaceful co-existence? Good luck with that!!!
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"...the Young Turk revolution in the Ottoman Empire began with everyone embracing each other in the streets and ended in the massacre of Armenians."
Sometimes its difficult to keep the massacres straight (there are so many of them). If I remember correctly, the Armenian Massacre was during WW I, before the 'Young Turks' gained power. Those Young Turks massacred and ethnically cleansed the Greeks, especially in Smyrna in the 1920s.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLopez: Why is the Muslim street so anti-American?
Rubin: Of course, some will say it is purely because of Israel but that’s nonsense."
"I'm afraid Rubin totally discredits himself by saying this- how can any serious analyst say that the Israel/Palestinian issue does not contribute to anti-American feeling. Its a pity as he seemed quite astute in his analysis up to that point."
He's not saying that it doesn't contribute to anti-American feeling. He's saying that its not that simple. He goes on to describe other influences.
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