My graduate-school professor Alan Blinder took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal today to extol the job-creation virtues of a carbon tax: “The ‘bang for the buck’ from a phased-in carbon tax would be infinite at first: lots of jobs at zero cost to the federal budget.”
Wow, that sure sounds good. Unfortunately, it ignores some Economics 101.
Only in a government-centric view of the universe would something be “free” because it has no budgetary impact. It is costly — very costly — to change from one energy portfolio (and the infrastructure that supports it) to another. Period. Nobody should pretend otherwise. A principled argument would acknowledge this cost and provide convincing evidence of compensating benefits , and certainly any argument should propose keeping the costs as low as possible. So it is curious by omission that Professor Blinder does not mention the need for complete pre-emption of provisions of the Clean Air Act (and Clean Water Act, and Endangered Species Act…) that lead to draconian command-and-control outcomes. Why argue for markets and then chain them to regulatory anchors?
Worse, Professor Blinder’s argument is a classic Politics 101 bait-and-switch. He pays lip service to the need to cut spending in the future (“lower spending as shares of GDP”) but argues for passing a tax increase right now. This would inevitably reduce pressure for needed spending discipline over the near term, lead to a permanently higher level of spending and taxes, and harm U.S. growth and competitiveness.
Professor Blinder could have solved this probably by arguing that any carbon-tax revenues should be deposited into a trust fund that could be used for a single purpose: cutting payroll and corporation taxes. That way, the carbon tax would not cause government to grow, and would in a single stroke address the competitiveness and fairness issues usually associated with a carbon tax. Low-income workers would get a tax cut to offset higher traditional-energy costs, and U.S. corporations would get agreed-upon relief from the onerous U.S. corporation income tax.
In fairness, three of Professor Blinder’s points are spot on. First, the notion that raising taxes right now is a good idea was firmly put to rest by the actions of the president and the lame-duck Congress in December. Those legislative actions codified “policy as usual” in Washington. The good news is that taxes remained low; the bad news is that there has been no tangible progress on cutting spending to change the current policy of enormous deficits.
Next, there can be little doubt that bringing certainty to the policy outlook would benefit businesses. Utilities, in particular, have to make five-decade investment decisions. The more that can be done to reduce their uncertainty, the better. The same argument applies to every business structure investment, equipment choice, or long-term fuel contract. Other things being the same, knowing what is coming out of Washington is better than not.
Finally, it is indisputable that market-based policies are preferable. This lesson goes back at least as far as 1989–90, when the first Bush White House had to dragoon John Dingell and a Democratic Congress into using a permit-trading system to address acid rain. The result? Acid rain is no longer a daily topic of conversation in the Northeast, and the program came in way below its project economic cost.
In the bad old days, Democrats bad-mouthed trading systems and price mechanisms; Republicans opposed rifle-shot subsidies and mandates. Weirdly, conservatives have a need to relearn these lessons. Republicans need to swear off targeted subsidies (ethanol credits, wind and solar production tax credits, loan guarantees) and regulations (“renewable energy standards” and the like) and get back on the market train.
If you want to do something about carbon pollution, a carbon tax and a cap-and-trade system are the same policy. Set a carbon tax at $10 a ton and you will get a certain level of emissions. Set a cap at that level of emissions and permits will trade for $10 a ton.
Now, you may not want to engage in a carbon policy. Fair enough. But if one decides to move in that direction for political, business-certainty, or pollution reasons, there is no excuse for returning to the bad old days of subsidies and command-and-control regulation. Conservatives bashing their intellectual offspring is simply mystifying.
So, let’s summarize a complete argument: Nothing is free, don’t raise taxes now or grow the government, and use market forces.
— Douglas Holtz-Eakin is president of the American Action Forum.
A carbon tax is better than the corrupt Rube Goldbergian morass of "cap and trade" but that's about it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBlinder, indeed. Perhaps the gentleman should change his name to Blindest.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell, if we're going to tax Evil Leprechauns riding Giant 37-Hoofed Unicorns, it doesn't really matter how the system works. We're still taxing a complete fantasy, so you might as well make it a -12345.6789% tax, collected once every Klingon MicroYear, with exemptions for Counterclockwise Vampires. At least that would be interesting.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePlacing tax proceeds in a trust for a revenue-neutral policy is fine, so long as the beneficiaries control disbursement of the proceeds, as is done with IRA deposits. If the money is held by the government, as with FICA monies, the trustee will invest in government debt, so that the funds are used to finance government spending.
Blinder's op-ed made me cringe. As a former economics undergrad in his department, I find it eerie that so many of his faculty colleagues support equally disastrous policies.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBlinder states "everyone" agrees that "climate change" or global warming (or whatever is the rhetorical gimmick dujour to enhance the acceptance of the premise)is a problem.
Wrong. There is a THEORY that man is causing some degree of elevated temperatures. There is no proof that man, alone, is the cause of the increases. The statistics behind the theory are questionable as to the method used to collect the data and the authors of the theory have been reluctant to publish all their findings in a comprehensive manner.
This isn't scientific. Nor is the lack of research or discussion into sunspot activity which may or may not contribute massively to any rising temperatures. Right now you get paid for "climate change" research which points to man, not for solar research which won't justify more power, control or taxes for bureaucrats.
To use the term "everyone" means Blinder completely disregards the reasoned debate surrounding the THEORY. How intellectually sound is that?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSerious question--how was the permit-trading system that ended acid rain different from cap and trade? I thought they both used the same mechanism.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnother cringe-worthy part of the op-ed was his blithe dismissal of the employment effects of the tax. He acknowledges that at some point in the future, manufacturing jobs could leave the US because of higher costs. But to Blinder that's OK, because all of those skilled but jobless manufacturing people can get new and "better" jobs in sales, management, marketing or design. Some comments about this-
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse* Nice to know that Alan doesn't respect manufacturing jobs.
* I travel often to China to visit factories, and can enthusiastically confirm that because the jobs lost in the US will go to places like China, then the net environmental impact of the carbon tax will be negative, not positive, because the Chinese have far weaker controls over pollution.
* Disinvestment by manufacturers in building, expanding or even maintaining a manufacturing presence in the US would be just as immediate as the investment in CO2 emissions reduction he touts. That's because manufacturers would also be certain that their costs in the future will go nowhere but up.
Weary Traveler is correct. The US Consumer and the US politician is the most ignorant type of consumer on the planet. We regulate ourselves with more stringent environmental law only to have more of our jobs to go overseas and more of our food to be imported from countries with much weaker environmental laws, creating more pollution as a whole.
I used to think it was all because our our environmental guilt. Now as I've aged I think it's because of the large sums of money environmental groups make by exploiting ignorant consumers.
Environmentalism is a Big Business filled with enough cronyism to make GE & GM blush.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse...... or perhaps the government ought to give up on the seemingly irresistible idea to tax the air.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBill N 01/31/11 13:45
----"Serious question--how was the permit-trading system that ended acid rain different from cap and trade? I thought they both used the same mechanism."----
Superficially they do. The difference is that the pollutants that were the subject of the acid rain permit trading system were almost exclusively produced by point source power plants, mostly located in the Northeast US. That meant there was a specific identifiable maximum from human sources and none from natural sources.
Carbon dioxide is emitted by, well, every living thing, in addition to combustion by everything from college football bonfires to lawn mowers, to sparklers, to third world agricultural burning to volcanoes etc. etc....all over the world.
That is to say, although the permit trading system appears, superficially, to be similar, what it would be applied to is so different that implementation would be nightmarishly different.
But it would be a major profit opportunity for Goldman Sachs.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe quickest way to screw up an economy is to raise the cost of energy (in fact the current recession was started by oil price increases in 2008). To raise the price of energy while our economy is still in profound trouble is insane both economically and politically. That is why the Democrats will make no serious effort to do so, especially when it has zero chance to pass.
The real energy political struggle right now is how to limit the EPA's ability to regulate CO2. That is what we should be discussing. Long term, maybe a bit of a return to federalism (via the courts) will help. Short term, the EPA must be attacked, particularly that it has out sourced CO2 findings to the IPCC. Constraining the EPA budget is probably the best approach in the short run.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMany thanks, Leveut--this is much clearer now.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat is the point of the carbon tax? What benefit will there be from it? What cost will it impose? There is no reliable evidence at this time that anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is real. So, it sounds like the tax would be all cost and no benefit. (I observe, there would be plenty of benefits from some increased warming, especially given how difficult this winter has been.) If there is AGW, then it was "Mann" made (as opposed to man-made); AGW appears to be a fraud perpetrated by Mann and others at Hadley CRU. Moreover, one of the perpetrators of the fraud, Phil Jones testified before a parliamentary committee that there has no global warming since 1993. That's eighteen years and counting. Also, a recent paper by Jules Kalbfeld (A Challenge to the Carbon Dioxide/Global Warming Connection) indicates that there is simply not enough carbon dioxide around to be an issue for global warming. Finally, estimated temperatures today appear to be substantially below those of 10,000 years. So, why should we even worry about AGW?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr. Holtz-Eakin is right to highlight the merits of a carbon tax.
Perhaps two thirds of Democrats would accept such a measure to protect the climate. And at least one third of Republicans might welcome a cut in the corporate income tax, with replacement revenue coming from a less-distortionary consumption tax (the carbon fee).
Those numbers add up to the possibility of adoption.
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