According to al-Arabiya, Hosni Mubarak will announce on Egyptian television tonight that he will not run for reelection, but that he will stay in office until the September 2011 elections.
While Mubarak might have done wonders for Arab democracy if he had stepped down after two terms — establishing the precedent that there is such a thing as a living and not-exiled Arab ex-president — now it is too little, too late. Chaos will reign in Egypt unless Mubarak leaves the country and, from an American standpoint, this will empower more radical elements in society to rally against Mubarak.
What is needed now is a technocratic transitional government to lead the country until September 2011. Mohamed ElBaradei is probably not the man to lead it. Certainly, he’s not one who can stand up and condemn corruption with a straight face. And while he’s loved by the diplomats, his credentials are all from outside Egypt. ElBaradei knows as much about what ordinary Egyptians feel as I know about what it’s like to be an Eskimo.
What worries me is this: Today marks the 32nd anniversary of Khomeini’s return to Iran. Most people making dark allusions to Iran forget that more than nine months passed between Khomeini’s return and the seizure of the U.S. Embassy. The question then becomes, what grievances can the Muslim Brotherhood or other anti-Western forces manufacture in those nine months to try to appeal beyond their natural constituency of perhaps 25 percent? (I discuss this in a piece I did for AOL today.)
While President Obama and Secretary Clinton are doing about as well as could be expected in handling the crisis once it erupted — Biden, alas, has hurt U.S. interests with his comments — the real issue is what we do to (1) quickly establish a transitional government; (2) put out the sparks the Muslim Brotherhood creates during the transition, as they try to inflame the Egyptian tinderbox; and (3) ensure that elections are contested only by those groups which eschew violence and accept the Egyptian constitution. President Obama should not repeat President Bush’s mistake and enable political groups which maintain militias to claim the mantle of electoral legitimacy.
Michael Rubin is correct in that his resignation is not enough, but it is a start and will hopefully allow a little bit of time to cobble together a plan. And perhaps his (Rubin's) approach whereby he suggests: "What is needed now is a technocratic transitional government to lead the country until September 2011." Let us hope so. (I will use the word hope;though the word has become overused by scoundrels, scalawags, and knaves of late!)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's too late only if the army says it's too late. If they take a stand otherwise and there is a choice between patience and confrontation with the army, they'll wait for the transition.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseActually Turtle, I think Michael is right. This has been building up for a long time. I don't think the crowds will accept that and we'll soon see whose guess is correct.
I read that Al-Jazeera says he's going to the Egyptian Embassy in Tel Aviv. If they don't like him now, they'll be murderous if that turns out to be true. But at least it's not Phoenix or somewhere here. Bringing him here wouldn't win us any friends in Egypt.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf Egypt has a nuclear weapons program, ElBaradei is unlikely to detect it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"President Obama should not repeat President Bush’s mistake and enable political groups which maintain militias to claim the mantle of electoral legitimacy."
True. But hasn't Obama already done precisely that by conferring legitimacy on the Muslim Brotherhood as a participant in a future government? How does this help the army to contain the MB between now and September, whether Mubarak stays or leaves?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseEgyptians need to be patient, let Mubarak stay until September, if he leaves now, there will be a disasterous power vaccuum left behind that would be devastating for Egypt. I think you should seriously think the situation through more completely before saying he needs to leave now. Seriously, think it through and be careful what you ask for.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseD Garcia,
The question is whether Mubarak remaining until September would be an irritant around which the Muslim Brotherhood would rally. As for the vacuum: I share your concern. But then the question is whether something else could fill that vacuum, for example, if the Egyptian army stepped in to usher in a transitional government.
With regards,
Michael
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLook, admittedly I'm not an expert but do you think sometime in the last, say, 30 years, our State Department and CIA might have pondered how power was going to be transitioned in the largest Muslim country, and our most strategic Muslim ally, in the Middle East and thought up some ideas about how to handle it? Do you think we might have learned something from Iran? It is absolutely incredible that we are fumbling around now without any clue what to do.
We didn't have carte blanche but we provide the core of aid to Egypt and had tremendous leverage to help guide this process. Now? Well, the very best we can hope for is that Egypt will be another Turkey, democratic but ambivalent, if not hostile. At worst...Tehran II.
What exactly do they do in Langley, anyway?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr. Rubin, thanks for the work.
"ElBaradei knows as much about what ordinary Egyptians feel as I know about what it’s like to be an Eskimo." That's funny stuff...good one...what fun!!!
We could say the same about the POTUS BHO; and not only about the "ordinary Egyptians" but about ordinary Americans!!! Funny? Not so much. Pathetically sad and frightening!!!
Mr. Lowry, turn up the heat!!!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAbout "the precedent that there is such a thing as a living and not-exiled Arab ex-president". How about Iraq? And on that note, imagine an Iraq in flames with dictator Sadam Husein and Moqtada Sadr playing the role of the opposition?
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