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51 Votes to Obamacare Repeal?

That’s the case Karl Rove makes after talking to some folks who ought to know:

Keith Hennessey, a former White House colleague of mine, says Democrats are wrong. He argues that Republicans can repeal health-care reform with a simple Senate majority.

Director of the National Economic Council under President George W. Bush, Mr. Hennessey now teaches at Stanford Business School and is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. Last week on his website, KeithHennessey.com, he made the case that congressional Republicans could use the reconciliation process to kill ObamaCare with 51 votes in the Senate and a majority in the House of Representatives.

The Budget Act of 1974 established the reconciliation process. The House and Senate Budget Committees can direct other committees to make changes in mandatory spending (like ObamaCare’s Medicaid expansion and insurance subsidies) and the tax code (such as ObamaCare’s levies on insurance policies, hospitals and drug companies) to make spending and revenue conform with the goals set by the annual budget resolution.

For example, under reconciliation the Senate Budget Committee could instruct the Senate Finance Committee to reduce mandatory spending on insurance subsidies and Medicaid expansion. These two items make up more than 90% of spending in ObamaCare. All the changes from all the committees are then bundled into one measure and voted upon. Because reconciliation is protected by the rules of the budget process, it doesn’t take 60 votes to bring it up and it requires only a simple majority to pass.

Will this 51-vote strategy work? One long-time GOP budget whiz, embarrassed he hadn’t thought of this, told me it would. Another Republican veteran of the budget wars agreed, though she had some concerns that certain elements of ObamaCare, such as some insurance provisions, might be beyond the reach of reconciliation. For example, would reconciliation allow Republicans to kill the requirement that younger, healthier workers pay higher premiums than they rightly should to keep premiums for older workers lower?

Mr. Hennessey believes that these are “strategically unimportant” items. He says the goal should be to repeal ObamaCare’s big-cost drivers, and reconciliation provides the tool to do it.

As we learned last March, the reconciliation rules are to a certain extent open for interpretation. Even if Republicans were in a position to try this come 2013 (and had a friendly pen in the White House), they’d have to draw the lines around the reconcilable bits very carefully.

Food for thought, though.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   19

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williamlower
   02/10/11 11:47

What is so new about all this? The 51-vote reconciliation strategy to repeal has been discussed in many forums, including NRO. What can be enacted with 51 votes can be repealed with 51 votes and I don't care how loud the MSM screams. Yes, there are some reconciliation budgetary hurdles, but nothing that a new CBO director cannot fix. If the Democrats can doctor the numbers (no pun intended), so can the GOP.

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Anonymous
   02/10/11 11:52

Even if it's possible, it's a terrible idea. We should not be using the same strong-arm tactics the Democrats were rightly vilified for.

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   02/10/11 12:17

@ Anonymous "We should not be using the same strong-arm tactics the Democrats were rightly vilified for."

Disagree. With this particular bill, given the vile way it was passed (Deem and pass, reconciliation, you name it) then we should most definitely feel comfortable backing it up through the same roads. Kill it. Kill it with fire.

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   02/10/11 12:22

Back this back up the same pipe it was delivered from...Reconciliation. Has some poetic justice about it, and since the MSM already did the legwork of legitimizing the tactic, it should be perfectly kosher for turnabout.

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   02/10/11 12:37

It shouldn't be food for thought. Williamlower, Righteverytime, and Uncledave have exactly the wrong interpretation of this, and if the GOP behaves in exactly the same way that they complained about during the Obamacare fight... they will lose, big, in 2012.

What's good for the goose is NOT good for the gander, and an eye for an eye leaves everybody blind - this option shouldn't be on the table at all. It's awful politics.

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   02/10/11 12:55

The big difference between reconciliation to pass Obamacare in 2009 and reconciliation to repeal the same legislation in 2013 is that the 2008 election did not hinge on the legislation, whereas the 2012 election will.

The 2009 reconciliation was a method used to ignore the will of the people, and the 2013 reconciliation will be a method to implement the will of the people.

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TSB
   02/10/11 13:31

My understanding of the reconciliation process is that the bill has to be related to the budget for the current year. Couldn't the Democrats simply refuse to assist in passing a budget? If there are fewer than 60 Republicans in the Senate, they will need Democratic support for the budget.

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 Huey
   02/10/11 13:54

@Anonymous: Yeah, we should. We need to eliminate this liberty-killing monstrosity by whatever means are necessary.

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   02/10/11 14:00

Many commenters here seem to be missing the point. Using reconciliation before 2012 is not an option, inasmuch as the Republicans could not even get to 51 votes until they win some more seats in 2012. Yet several people who think themselves qualified to post an opinion suggest the using reconciliation is bad politics and would cost the Republicans additional seats in 2012. Please try to have a rudimentary grasp of what's being discussed before parading your ignorance in a bad costume marked "wisdom."

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   02/10/11 15:26

UncleDave, in the end, Obamacare passed under the fairly ordinary process. It did not rely on "deem and pass" or the budget reconciliation process. Proper conservative opposition to those tactics made the Democrats not use them.

What's next? Should conservatives demand that our bills be voted on without reading them, simply because they are implementing what WE deem to be the "will of the people"? We rightly made a huge fit about the procedural improprieties of the Democrats when they controlled Congress. We cannot in honor resort to the same flawed, undemocratic processes.

We can be a party of principles, or we can be a party dedicated to retaining power at whatever cost. We can't be both.

That's not to say we need to "play nice" with the Democrats. We should fight hard and use appropriate parliamentary advantages. But we can't violate our principles, the principles we used to help get our candidates elected, to do so.

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Windy City Commentary
   02/10/11 15:51

If you could pass the bill with 51 votes; you can repeal it with 51 votes; CASE CLOSED. Someone here tell me what more significant piece of domestic legislation has come about in recent years than Obamacare? Which piece of legislation was more discussed by the masses and more widely unpopular than Obamacare?

Obamacare passed with a 51 vote reconciliation and the Democrats took a 63 House seat hit. I am amazed that there is anyone posting here, who is more afraid of some GOP lifers losing seats in the next election, than dealing with the effects of Obamacare once it is fully implemented. It is with complete stupidity that anyone would sit here and hold cleanliness of the legislative process above all else. How fair of you to police the legislative process while we all face a bureaucracy between us and medicine.

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   02/10/11 16:16

@TSB. No budget - no help for the chhiilllllrrrennnn. Oldsters will be thrown out on the street.

Think Democrats want that? That's their demagogic playbook.

BTW, today saw that Obama wants to cut the Low Income Heating budget back to 2008 leves - a 50% cut!!! Obama must hate poor people.

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   02/10/11 16:20

This is all well and good... but I would rather move forward with a goal to win a 60 seat majority. Even if we fall short, if we come close we could look to a handful of blue dogs like Manchin to cross over.

Keep reconciliation in our back pocket in case needed, but go for the gold, people!

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Spiral
   02/10/11 16:31

The framers of the US Constitution intended that the US Senate would conduct itself on a majority basis.

That is why in Article 1, Section 5 it says that a simple majority only is required for a quorum.

Also, in Article 1, Section 3, the Constitution says that the Vice President does not get a vote in the US Senate unless the vote is "evenly divided." The reason for giving the Vice President the ability to break a tie was because the framers intended a majority to run the US Senate.

There are, of course, exceptions, such as the 2/3rds requirement for treaties and over-riding a presidential veto and for amending the US Constitution.

But for ordinary legislation and for nominations to the executive branch and the judicial branch, a simple majority is all that is needed. And the US Constitution trumps rule 5 of the US Senate, which is an invalid rule because it attempts to bind a future Senate to supermajority requirements.

In other words, any Republican opposed to repealing Obama-care with 50 votes plus the Vice President actually supports Obama-care, but is just not honest enough to say so.

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TSB
   02/10/11 17:26

Bandmom,

A budget is not the same as an appropriation. Even without a budget, congress can still spend money. The Democrats proved this last year by not even attempting to pass a budget, which is one reason why they couldn't use reconciliation (only 51 votes) to pass the omnibus spending bill in the lame duck session.

So, my original question still stands; could the Democrats stop the use of reconciliation to kill Obamacare simply by refusing to support a budget?

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Sprial
   02/10/11 17:46

TSB,

You asked: could the Democrats stop the use of reconciliation to kill Obamacare simply by refusing to support a budget?

The answer is "No" for two reasons.

The first reason is the reason I gave in my comment below: The US Constitution gives power to a simple majority of the US Senate except when it specifically states that a 2/3rds majority is required (over-riding a presidential veto, treaty ratification and so on).

The second reason is the 1974 Budget Act does not allow filibusters on budget resolutions and budget reconciliation. The Senate may only debate for 50 hours.

That is why the worship of filibuster rule is so silly. Budgets are arguably the more important legislative items the Senate deals with. Yet the filibuster does not apply to the budget. Yet we are told by some liberals and some conservatives that if we allow the US Senate to operate on a majority rule basis, the United States will collapse. It's nonsense, but lots of people buy it, thinking that majority rule in a legislative body is equivilent to "mob rule." Again, pure nonsense and scare tactics.

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Spiral
   02/10/11 19:40

Just Google "Gold Gupta Filibuster"

This provides all kinds of great information about Senate rules and how they are often ignored or modified.

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   02/10/11 20:12

There is A LOT of wiggle-room in the budget reconciliation procedure. One overlooked example is the argument from the left that you can't repeal it because it will raise the deficit to do so and that violates the Byrd rules unless you find offsetting cuts in spending. HOWEVER, as Keith Hennessey points out in his original piece, the Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee (hopefully a Republican by that time) can OVERRULE the original budget estimates that CBO was forced to use by the Democrats. It is a ham-fisted approach to the problem that would surely cause howls of indignation from the remaining Senate Democrats but I say, "TFB, you used a procedural trick to pass this sham and we're using one to repeal it! Go pound sand."

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Frank Provasek
   02/13/11 21:37

" If you could pass the bill with 51 votes; you can repeal it with 51 votes; CASE CLOSED"

The Health Care Reform bill passed in the Senate 60-39, it was NOT 51 votes as many posters here think.

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