As expected, Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas) won the annual straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, an early, though unscientific, indicator of conservative favor as the 2012 presidential campaign cycle kicks into gear. Paul, with a 30 percent plurality, topped numerous high-profile White House contenders. He finished seven points ahead of former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who placed second. All other candidates finished with less than ten percent of the vote: former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson snagged six percent, as did Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich won five percent.
For Paul, whose 2008 presidential bid stirred thousands of libertarian-leaning conservatives to the polls, it was repeat performance: He won the CPAC contest last year, buoyed by strong grassroots support. This year, Paul’s highly-organized supporters followed a similar on-site strategy, rallying for the 75 year-old throughout the three-day gathering via panel sessions and heavy politicking in the lobby of the sprawling Marriott Wardman Park. As Paul remarked in his Friday speech, “I’m glad to see the revolution is continuing.”
CPAC brass played down the results. “The straw poll is not a poll; the straw poll is entertainment for the people that are here,” says David Keene, the former president of the American Conservative Union, in an interview with National Review Online. “He won it last time because he was the only one running. Even I could win it if I was the only one running. He is the only one who seems to focus on it exclusively.”
Grover Norquist, the influential taxpayer advocate, tells NRO that Paul’s win is far from meaningless. “If you are running for president, you need to be able to connect with the activists,” he says. “This is a measure of how connected you are to activists, especially the young activists. Some people talk about the money primary — this is the activist primary.”
Paul’s growing following on the right, Norquist predicts, could shake up the 2012 race, especially on issues championed by the Texas congressman, like monetary policy. “It’s like 1988, when Pat Robertson ran for president,” he observes. “Robertson brought a whole collection of people into the Republican party.” While acknowledging that some Republicans find Paul supporters “strange” for their dogged focus on the Federal Reserve, the fresh faces, Norquist says, are “very healthy” for the future of the GOP.
Alexander McCobin, a Paul supporter and founder of Students for Liberty, agrees. “This shows that libertarianism really is what Ronald Reagan said: the heart and soul of conservatism,” he tells us. “Libertarianism — belief in individual liberty, limited government, free markets — these are the principles that should be defining conservatism. If the GOP decides to ignore that lesson, they’re going to be hurt.”
At CPAC, Paul’s maneuvers were not limited to hallway organizing. The rail-thin congressman also generated sparks for his criticism of U.S. foreign policy — a rarity at CPAC. From the dais, facing thousands of conservatives, he shamed both parties for supporting former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak. “The people don’t like us propping up their dictators,” he said. “No more than we would like it if a foreign country propped up a dictator in our country.” He also had strong words about ladling cash to U.S. allies. “Foreign aid is taking money from the poor people of rich countries and giving it to the rich people of poor countries,” he argued.
Nearly 11,000 conservative activists attended the conference. However, two politicians with vocal backing from attendees — Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee — did not show, making the straw poll a notable, though hardly definitive, glimpse at the emerging field of candidates. The ballot box was also closed on Friday afternoon, hours before two prominent GOP governors, Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana and Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi, spoke, so Paul’s win, though newsworthy, may not carry too much weight in the run-up to 2012.
UPDATE: Full results:
Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas) — 30%
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney — 23%
Former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson — 6%
Gov. Chris Christie (R., N.J.) — 6%
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich — 5%
Former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty — 4%
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.) — 4%
Gov. Mitch Daniels (R., Ind.) — 4%
Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin — 3%
Former business executive Herman Cain — 2%
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee — 2%
Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum — 2%
Sen. John Thune (R., S.D.) — 2%
Amb. Jon Huntsman — 1%
Gov. Haley Barbour (R., Miss.) — 1%
Other — 5%
Undecided — 1%
Yep, in the words of Oprah, I do believe he's the one. Now if only he can be persuaded to run.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusemay not carry too much weight in the run-up to 2012--duh, you can say that again.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePerhaps if he had named his son Buckley instead of Rand, I would be more inclined to support him. It would also help if he weren't so doggedly anti-Israel.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhen I heard that Paul's supporters were booing and harassing VP Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld at the conference when they appeared, I knew this was another children's crusade and it will end the way the original one did.
When your supporters look like fools and idiots, your influence is negligible.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGood for Ron Paul. If the GOP is going to be successful over the long run it must connect with young people. And for the second year in a row young people gave Ron Paul a victory at CPAC. Good to know David Keene is leaving CPAC after his rank dismissal of Ron Paul's victory.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRon Paul has no chance. I don't understand why he doesn't just give up. Yeah, he is a economics wizard, but his foreign policy is awful. He is a 1930's Isolationist in a world where oceans mean nothing.
I also notice that Romney never discussed Romney care in his speech. Gee, wonder why?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePaul actually named his son Randall, a perfectly acceptable name IMHO. I too, wish he wasn't so anti-Isreal.
Why take a straw poll before all participants are heard - weird.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseActually, Students for Liberty isn't the group that used to be Students for Ron Paul....That is Young Americans for Liberty.
I know it sounds like a Monte Python script with the similarity of all the names, but there you are.
And it means as much as these things ever mean.
How much do these things ever mean, again? His supporters are charged, and ready to go.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCongrats to Ron Paul. The Republican party desperately needs to be reformed in a more small-government mold. And he's probably better positioned to lead that than anyone else. Here's to hoping it works out for the best of the nation and the GOP doesn't go back to its business-as-usual government growing policies that the rest of the field of presidential contenders all espouse.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGuys, Rand and Ron aren't anti Israel. Speak to them yourselves. They are more accessible than most.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe CPAC convention must be for Libertarians, not traditional Conservatives. Otherwise, Paul would not have won. Conservatives know full well that Paul cannot defeat President 0.0.
What is the relation between CPAC and the Tea Party?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWith all due respect to Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, that poll creates an unhealthy impression of the conservative electorate. We look like we're miles away from Ronald Reagan.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCPAC looks like a bunch of kooks in their embrace of Ron Paul and the pot guy. Love Norquist's Pat Buchanan analogy. Yeah, Pat did wonders for the GOP. Where is he now? Oh, yeah: MSNBC. Though I do suppose Ron Paul, Pat Buchanan and Grover Norquist have a lot in common....
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseA personally likeable candidate acceptable to all 3 major wings of the party better come forth soon. As I see it, leading the pack we have:
Romney: shameless chameleon and empty suit.
Palin: gaffe-prone and too caricatured for the general. (Unfairly so, but hey, that's life.)
Huckabee: Ned Flanders persona who thinks government is there to fulfill some "social gospel" mission.
Gingrich: the class know-it-all who came across to many like nails on a chalkboard while he was Speaker.
As I see it, absent some dark horse entry it's Thune, Pawlenty, or Daniels. What do y'all think?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr. Costa, thanks for the work.
I like Ron Paul and his son...their foreign policy? Not so much, otherwise they have me at "kill the leviathan"!!!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBoth Mr Paul and Mr Norquist are anti-Israel, with some evidence that Mr Norquist is in bed with the likes of CAIR (e.g. External Link
).
Seeing what transpired at CPAC is unsettling. The good news? It is far from clear that this enthusiasm for Mr Paul indicates anything of substance; it's just a CPAC straw poll, after all.
People, we can do better than Ron Paul. And should.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don't understand all the support for Mitt Romney. What's the appeal? It seems to me that Mitt is the GOP's Barack Obama. If conservatives want a 2nd Obama term, let's just not have any GOP candidate at all, or just throw John McCain back out on stage and wait/hope/pray for Christie 2016 (if we still have a republic by then).
(Personally I thought Mitch Daniels had a great speech, which telegraphed a good potential strategy aimed at centrists and independents - we're going to need more than the GOP establishment to get out the vote, if there's going to be any chance of defeating Obama in 2012.)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis stuff is harmless enough. But as Mitch Daniels said, ultimately, conservatives are going to have to bring in a lot of folks who think CPAC is a floatation device.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseShawn - you nailed it. Paul is just way too kooky - reminds me of Perot. It's politics, not a debate, the Repubs need a conservative that can win - someone who is likable, articulate, and doesn't appear to be on the fringe. Mr. Paul has some interesting ideas but I'd never want to see him on the ballot.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRon Paul and Gary Johnson received a combined 36% of the vote. That should be enough to make anyone nauseous.
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