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The Obama Budget’s Magic Asterisks

Past presidential budgets have been declared “DOA,” or dead on arrival. President Obama’s budget should be declared “TBD” — to be determined. Despite taking an extra week to release this year’s budget, the president’s budget is an incomplete list of magic asterisks.

Overall, the budget’s claimed $2.2 trillion in deficit reduction over the decade is based on smoke and mirrors. It claims $315 billion saved from eliminating “certain tax expenditures” — but doesn’t list which ones. It claims to finance a $328 billion transportation trust fund without specifying what taxes would be raised. It takes credit for $321 billion in spending cuts to offset the Medicare “doc fix” from 2014 through 2021. What are the cuts? To be determined. It claims more than $150 billion in “program integrity” savings so vague that the Congressional Budget Office could not even score them in past budget estimates. The budget takes credit for $700 billion in “cuts” by comparing the long-planned drawdown of Iraq and Afghanistan spending against a baseline that implausibly assumes those costs would rise forever.

Throw in $200 billion in net interest savings from the above “cuts,” and it means that $2.0 trillion of the $2.2 trillion in claimed savings are pure gimmicks and magic asterisks, rather than specific, legitimate, measurable policy proposals.

Of course, the proposed spending increases — the Medicare doc fix, new transportation spending, high-speed rail, more Pell Grant entitlements, and another round of $250 checks for senior citizens — are all real and scoreable.

The biggest punt of all is on Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare, where the president who once said he “refuses to pass this problem on to another generation of Americans” did exactly that by ignoring the entitlement recommendations of his own deficit commission. This prompted deficit commission co-chairman Erskine Bowles to add that the president’s budget is “nowhere near where they will have to go to resolve our fiscal nightmare.”

President Obama has stated that his budget eventually reduces non-security discretionary spending as a share of the economy to the lowest levels since the Eisenhower administration. Since discretionary spending is written from scratch annually, all figures beyond 2012 are just placeholders.

Given that, the president found an ingenious way to reduce projected discretionary spending: just reclassify highway spending and a portion of Pell Grants as entitlement spending. It’s like the old headline from The Onion: “Millions lifted out of poverty by redefinition of the term.” By the president’s logic, we could slash entitlement spending immediately simply by deciding to no longer count Medicare as an entitlement.

Strip away all the magic asterisks and gimmicks, and what remains is a budget too similar to the president’s previous tax-borrow-and-spend budgets. It raises taxes by $1.5 trillion, keeps spending at its highest level sustained level since World War II, and nearly doubles the national debt. Leadership cannot be TBD.

Brian Riedl is Grover M. Hermann fellow in federal budgetary affairs at the Heritage Foundation.

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COMMENTS   4

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   02/15/11 12:02

Obama's asterisks can get together with Boehner and Ryan's 'cuts to be named later' and have a magical time balancing the budget in pretend-ville.

I think that referring to the 'debt commission' is a very silly thing to do. The commission was a joke and didn't accomplish their mission in the slightest, which was to come up with a politically acceptable plan for dealing with these issues. Instead, they splintered their own commission and Simpson went into his usual freak-out mode and started ranting about greedy Americans. Obama would be foolish to have anything to do with it at all, and I highly doubt that any voters care.

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john4cats
   02/15/11 13:27

You're right Fish, I'm a die-hard righty, but deeply disappointed with the
conservative's offering of cuts. 3.7T and you can only find 80 or so Bil ?
Come on ! This is the problem, the pres is doing IRREVERSIBLE damage,
because even WHEN the conservatives take control, they will do nothing.
Business as usual, both sides of the street. No one is looking out for you and me.

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   02/15/11 14:03

Mr. Reidl,

I would add that one of the gimmicks used by the president to claim 2021's non-security discretionary spending to be the lowest share of GDP since Eisenhower is to make unreasonable projections of GDP growth.

Per the president's budget summary table, GDP is projected to grow between 2012 and 2021 by 56%. By way of comparison, GDP increased by only 42% during the Reagan years (1983-1992)* and by 34% during the Clinton years (1994-2003)*. Upon what basis is President Obama projecting a significantly faster growth in GDP than during our two most recent periods of significant expansion?

*These two periods obviously do not precisely match the Reagan and Clinton terms, but I tried to use a similar period as represented in President Obama's budget: 10 years, 2012-2021.

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   02/15/11 19:29

The ultimate gimmick and the reason we need entitlement reform is because they stole money out the social security fund every year for the last 40 years and applied it against the budget deficit to make it look smaller. They robbed Peter to pay Paul. Now Peter wants his money.

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