Get FREE NRO Newsletters

 

June 11 Issue  |  Subscribe  |  Renew

Close

New on NRO . . .

The Corner

The one and only.

Print   |  Text
 

Some Caveats on Canada

In today’s Wall Street Journal, Charles Koch defends his business empire and his free-market ideology. While discussing the latter, Koch argues — contra President Obama — that cutting government spending will help the economy, not hurt it. He offers our neighbor to the north as an example: “When Canada recently reduced its federal spending to 11.3% of GDP from 17.5% eight years earlier, the economy rebounded and unemployment dropped. By comparison, our federal spending is 25% of GDP.”

David Henderson of the Hoover Institute recounts this story in his paper, “Canada’s Budget Triumph.” In 1993, Canada’s economy was sickly. Its unemployment rate hovered around 11.4 percent and the national debt totaled 67 percent of GDP. Moreover, the federal government consumed over 23 percent of GDP. (Sound familiar?)

The next year, however, the newly elected Liberal prime minister, Jean Chretien, and his finance minister, Paul Martin, raised taxes slightly and cut budgets drastically. Unemployment insurance, department funding, defense spending, and business subsidies all took hits. Chretien and Martin continued cutting for years and by 1997, Canada enjoyed a budget surplus of $3 billion — the first surplus since 1969.

Between 1993 and 1997, federal spending on programs — the precise datum Koch cites — dropped from 17.4 percent of GDP to 12.3 percent. Meanwhile, the federal government’s share of GDP fell from 22.3 in 1993 to 15.2 in 2006, when Martin and the Liberal party lost to the Conservatives.

Although Canada’s experience suggests that cutting government spending will not draw forth the apocalypse, a few caveats are necessary. First, Canada benefited from an economic boom in the U.S. — the same boom that made balancing our budget much easier. Second, as Paul Krugman argues, the Bank of Canada pursued a policy of easy money, which helped offset any constricting effects of smaller government budgets.

“My own sense is the Bank of Canada did good things,” Henderson says. “They were kind of like the Greenspan of Canada.”

Henderson agrees with Krugman that this monetary policy and the trade boom played roles in rectifying Canada’s fiscal troubles. But he also thinks the government’s responsible budgeting was in on the act. “What’s really striking,” he tells NRO, “is if you assume Canadian growth depended solely on the U.S. and you look at Canadian GDP in 2001, when the U.S. hit its recession, you would have expected Canada to have a recession. It didn’t.” From 2000 to 2001, the Canadian GDP-growth rate dropped from 5.2% to 1.8%.

Unfortunately, the Canadian leviathan has reinflated recently under Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. His government implemented a stimulus package in response to the Great Recession two years ago. And the federal government’s share of GDP has ticked up to 18 percent. “Stephen Harper was expected to be the most libertarian prime minister in the last 100 years — and he isn’t,” says Henderson. “He’s the one who’s really reversed most of this.”

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   4

EXPAND  

 gbh
   03/01/11 17:26

I'm sorry, but asserting that there is a direct causal link between lower government spending and economic growth throughout the business cycle is economic illiteracy. It misses a fundamental piece of the puzzle, which is to take into account the points of the cycle at which the comparison is drawn, and in particular, prevailing interest rates.

The key reason that government deficits can act as a brake on economic growth is because they tend to push up interest rates and inflation. That's exactly what the situation was in Canada in the early 1990s, and that's what the situation was in the US as well. In both those cases, cutting budget deficits relieved upward pressure on interest rates and inflation, which is what contributed to GDP growth.

In our current situation, interest rates are effectively zero, and there is minimal inflation. Therefore, as things stand, budget deficits have no effect on economic growth. That may change in the future, but that's the situation right now.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   03/01/11 19:35

Harper is definitely not a Libertarian, at least not publicly, more a pragmatist, if that's a term you can use to describe a politician who discards conservative principles to get elected (see Potash Corp. Saskatchewan).

The great Mark Steyn has written before that it's hard to be a centre-right politician in a centre-left country like Canada.

I have voted for Harper's Tories before, and will continue to do so because he's the only thing we have on our side of the fence, as low as that fence may be.

So I guess that makes me a pragmatist too.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   03/02/11 09:05

@gbh: Government disinterest in curbing its appetite -- present or future -- for the profits of private sector efforts will always reduce the willingness of the private sector to produce. Or, at least, reduce the willingness of it to produce HERE. Tax sheltering, outsourcing, general regulatory avoidance, increased rainy day funds against economic catastrophy, etc.

Also, I think that your assertion that inflation is minimal does not hold water.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   03/02/11 09:23

Mr. Bolduc, this has me tearing my hair out.
Why do we keep claiming that Clinton had a surplus?

The treasury's website clearly shows that the federal government has run a deficit every single year since 1957:

External Link 

The lowest deficit that Clinton had was ~$18 billion from 1999 to 2000.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse

Add a Comment

Already Registered? Log In Here.


The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.


* Designates a required field.
© National Review Online 2012
All Rights Reserved.
Subscriptions
NR / Print
NR / Digital

Gift Subscriptions
NR / Print
NR / Digital
NR Apps
iPhone/iPad
Android

NRO Apps
iPhone
Support Us
Donate
Media Kit
Contact