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The Japanese Nuclear Crisis

My Radiation Guy, throws some coolant on the panic. Interesting stuff.

Did you read about us shipping “coolant” to Japan yesterday? “Coolant” is water. Highly pure water. So I don’t understand that manuever, unless American H2O is superior to Nipponese coolant. Doubtful.

Anyway, we’re seeing news like “radiation 1,000x normal“.  So just how many Japanese people will end up dying from radiation poisoning?

None.

Okay, to be precise, the answer is ”indeterminate”.  No one will die from acute exposure.  And if there’s any increase in cancer, it will be totally lost in statistical noise.

Yes, this is one of those cases where’ll I’ll bet my life against any asset you care to risk.

Where are you reading this?  Home, office, pretentious coffee bar?  Whatever.  Just imagine that the radiation level has increased a thousandfold!  OMG!!  How much danger are you in?!

You are in incalculable danger.

It’s incalculable because radiation is still damaging your body less quickly than it heals.  We’ve addressed that here before.

If I measured the dose rate where you’re sitting, I’d see about five micro-rem per hour, give or take a micro-rem.  (rem= Roentgen Equivalent Man).

One thousand times that would be five milli-rem per hour, which just happens to be the threshold where the NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and DOE (Department of Energy) must establish a Radiation Area. 

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   28

EXPAND  

Tom Manning
   03/12/11 14:29

Wow!! Just Look at those tractors - and we all thought those farmers were busy guys. Well whip them mules, I mean tractors around that captial building. Cool and give Susan a ride - she would look good in one of those - and then you guys can cheer. HAVE FUN EVERYONE - OH I FORGOT TO MENTION THE BILL PASSED. What the heck, you might have tried to destroy the capital building anyway even if it failed. You democrates love to tear things down and have big party on all us taxpayers. Is there any other equipment you can bring in and liven this up even more. Probably not, how is it possible to beat Michael Moore and Susan Sarandon. I guess I have to back to watching basketball. And all of you at the Wisconsin statehouse maybe if you stay long enough someone just might bring pizza in - WOW that is worth waiting for - that and maybe another one of those really cool red t-shirts. Do tractors have horns - tell those guys driving those tractors with their hats that say CAT to honk those horns.

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   03/12/11 15:10

Oh you must mean "safe" and "not die" like this: Tokaimura Nuclear Accident

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Jiminator
   03/12/11 15:15

I found an amplifying article by technology pundit Robert X. Cringely with a different take...he says that when Hillary Clinton said "coolant" she really meant "coolant", not water. Why would our military need to deliver water to Japan?

He says we delivered boric acid from spare supplies for our carriers, see the full article here:

External Link 

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   03/12/11 15:15

As a former submarine officer, I second all of that.

People have an irrational fear of nuclear power. Because people don't understand the nature of radiation, they are very fearful of it, even as they accept that people occasionally die as the result of technology and modern conveniences. Sadly, people die as the result of oil production, building construction, car accidents, and many other activities related to modern technology, but we (rightfully) don't get so bent out of shape about all these things that we stop drilling for oil (okay, that one is an issue of some people), stop building tall buildings, or give up our cars. Nuclear power is unfairly singled out as unacceptably dangerous no matter how safe its record really is.

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wormme
   03/12/11 15:36

Thanks for the link, Jonah.

Hey mcgruf! Several of my fellow RCTS are former Navy "nuke pukes". Best guys in the world to work with.

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   03/12/11 16:07

As someone who designs radiation hardened electronics I'll third all of that too.

Over the next few weeks we will hear pundits exclaiming that bodies are falling everywhere around the world because of the release of radiation from the Japanese reactors. You can expect several class actions suits to be filed claiming everything from cancer to acne being caused by radiation levels "unprecedented" in human history.

Nuclear plants in the US will be shut down until it can be proven that North America will never again experience an earthquake.

Eco-mystics will claim that the earthquake was Gaia's punishment of the Japanese for using nuclear power.

After that, things will get silly.

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   03/12/11 16:32

I give it a 2 in 3 chance that "The China Syndrome" will appear on one or more cable movie channels within the next 30 days.

Agree with the post and Radiation Guy, and I'm sure millions of Americans will spend the time to educate themselves before announcing, "ok, build one next to your house, not mine". No doubt Democrats across the nation (those too ashamed to protest in WI over pensions on a day when thousands of people are dying in Japan) will encourage cooler heads to prevail.

Props to the Japanese though. If this is the worst it gets, then they built one heck of an amazing power plant. 9.1 earthquake, 33ft tsunami. Short of a precision guided bomb, I'm not sure what could have hit that reactor harder. That they are even able to take steps to contain it is incredible.

Recall that after Chernobyl, there were military helicopter pilots flying over the reactor trying to pour concrete onto the exposed reactor core. Most died from insane radiation exposure, but gave their lives to save a lot of people. I haven't read anything that would indicate this is like Chernobyl.

External Link 

It was Chernobyl, more than TMI, that spooked the world about nuclear power.

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   03/12/11 16:41

Its more than people having irrational fears--it is that those with an agenda PLAY those fears for their own aims. This situation is serious, but nevermind "1,000 times" as much radiation--it is safe to say that 100,000 times more people will die from the quake and the tsunami than will die from radiation from this reactor---so will the enviro luddite anti-nuclear anti-energy anti-capitalists now ask the government to ban oceans and earth?

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Nate
   03/12/11 18:11

External Link 

This is the best explanation I've seen so far

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   03/12/11 18:40

Hmm.
Lots of whistling past the graveyard here.
What I would like to know is why this plant's containment vessel appears to have failed. Is it really because the power went out? And yes, the apparent failure of the vessel is a big deal. Chernobyl was blamed on shoddy soviet carelessness but this one is being blamed on a diesel engine that did not start?

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   03/12/11 20:32

@bmp: There's some speculation that hydrogen gas built up in the containment building, and it blew up the building, but not the steel containment vessil inside. From what I've read the design of the facility means that once they lost power/cooling that the reaction stops and a slow cooldown ensues. Slow. It's still a hot mess, but not getting any hotter which is good.

Still pretty scary. I don't think anyone is whistling past the graveyard, but like someone else noted, thousands more people will die from the earthquake and flood and not radiation. The slow drip, drip, drip of news makes this feel more ominous I have to admit.

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   03/12/11 22:07

So why are people being treated for radiation sickness already?

External Link 

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Mike#9
   03/12/11 22:27

The "shipping coolant" story was suspicious from the beginning -- I know Hilary said it, but journalists should have checked it for plausibility, and that story has now been revoked/corrected.

But even when it was alive, "coolant" is certainly not water, or special pure water, ... I thought maybe heavy water, but they don't use heavy water in Japan, so that too does not work.

But what could it be???

My latest guess: Boron. They have been adding it to the sea water to kill the nuclear reaction (if it is still going).

Perhaps they had Boron somewhere in Japan, or somewhere else that USAF airplanes could move it quicker. But in the end they were able to do it without help.

So, bad journalism, bad analysis. Upgrade your "Radiation Guy" if you can.

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Podman
   03/12/11 22:47

Maybe I'm confused but your radiation guy seems to be saying that a meltdown at a nuclear power plant is no big deal.

Well I'll put up $1 against his life (his challenge, not mine, and I'm sure one that he won't honor if he loses) that no one will die from this.

I hope he's right (despite the "statistical noise" dodge} but with exploding containment structures it seems a bit, ahh, agressive and, to be honest, weird.

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   03/12/11 23:33

> "So why are people being treated for radiation sickness already?"

Because Jonah's Radiation Guy probably doesn't know what he's talking about. Never trust an anonymous "expert."

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   03/13/11 00:12

Regardless of the facts about radiation, you're asking us to believe an anonymous blogger who doesn't reveal his name or credentials? Next you'll have an opinion based on Ask Yahoo.

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   03/13/11 00:22

@littleoldme If by people being treated for radiation you mean workers at the facility, then that doesn't prove anything about the danger of radiation levels outside the facility. Radiation drops off with the square of distance even without shielding. If you're refering to the dispencing of potasium-iodide pills, they are a prophylactic not a treatment.

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bluesdog7
   03/13/11 03:49

No, most sane people express a rational informed fear of radiation poisoning; at least those aware of the Chernobyl disaster and its sickening aftermath.

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Ted45
   03/13/11 06:05

This is a horrible catastrophe. This is the end of nuclear power as an option for generations, probably forever. And you post this complete nonsense, from an anonymous emailer? Wow. Jonah's contributions to the Corner are usually trifling silliness, but this is just moronic.

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Ben David
   03/13/11 07:19

Uh, no.
The "coolant" is sodium perborate - a source of boron that absorbs neutrons and further damps down the nuclear reactions of the core.

If this is the level of "expertise" - you need another expert...

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