The problem with Obama’s Middle East policy is that there is no policy, and that’s why we have heard nothing consistent or comprehensive from the administration that would try to explain our glee at Mubarak and Ali leaving but outreach to the far worse Assad, the monster Ahmadinejad’s enjoying exemption from “meddling” butQaddafi’s being merely “unacceptable,” talk of going into Libya as good but no talk of Saudi Arabia going into Bahrain as good or bad, reset diplomacy as not judging other regimes but human rights declared universal, no idea whether plebiscites without constitutional guarantees will bring governments worse than the pro-American autocracies that fall, and loud declarations of Bush’s policies as bad but also reset diplomacy’s quietly embracing most of them in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the not-to-be-named war on terror.
All this is in line with simultaneously establishing withdrawal dates and surging into Afghanistan, virtually closing Guantanamo, and regretting Iraq while claiming it as a possible “greatest achievement.” All that can be said for it is that the chaos keeps our friends and enemies guessing — and that confused inaction is, I suppose, preferable to confused intervention.
What then is or was at the heart of U.S. bewilderment in the region?
Three flawed assumptions:
1) Not being George Bush meant that we should keep mum about “democracy” and “human rights” and not judge the culturally constructed practices of ‘other’ indigenous governments. We saw that rhetoric early in 2009, and it was reified by our silence over the Iranian protests six months later. Oddly, we were to assume that a right-wing Bush had been too idealistic, and that a left-wing Obama was going to return to realpolitik dressed up in multicultural platitudes of non-intervention. The result is that we have become loud multicultural neocons who sermonize but are not taken too seriously;
2) We trumpeted multilateralism in the sense that we would follow the lead of the U.N. or the EU/NATO or the Arab League, all of whom are always waiting to follow America’s lead. Apparently, the administration believed that the usual serial criticism from these international bodies meant that they don’t like U.S. leadership. In fact, they both do like us to lead and even more do like to criticize us for leading — and find absolutely no contradiction in that at all. The result is that they are all unhappy that they finally got what they have always wanted and did not want.
3) As we saw in Obama’s first interview (with al Arabiya), his Cairo speech, and commentary from his advisers, the president as Barack Hussein Obama believed that his unique racial heritage, his non-traditional name, his father’s Muslim ancestry, and his left-of-center politics were all supposed to combine to reassure our former enemies and suspicious neutrals that we were now on the right side of progressive history-making — as if a democratic, capitalist, wealthy military superpower could at last be seen as quasi-revolutionary, and therefore they should both like us and desist from inappropriate behavior. It was almost the foreign-policy equivalent of a stuffy, big-city establishment organization cynically hiring a hip community-organizing liaison to go out into the neighborhood and convince suspicious locals that it was ‘really’ on their side — and it has worked about as well as these things usually do for all parties involved.
So where do we go from here? In the next crisis, I suggest that we can always boycott the Olympics.
sssshhhh... the obamateur is setting up a very difficult putt...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAt this point, an encore of Jimmy Carter is perhaps the best outcome for which we can hope.
At least we can rest securely in the knowledge that natural catastrophe in Japan, human catastrophe in Libya, and budget crisis and skyrocketing energy and food prices at home haven't impeded Obama's ability to complete his college basketball bracket and play golf.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLet me get this straight. Obama is incompetent. Obama has zero leadership skills. Duh. I knew that in the Summer of 2008. Tell me something I don't already know.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLet me get this straight. Obama is incompetent. Obama has zero leadership skills. He hasn't singlehandedly resolved the mess that is the Middle East.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat was Nixon's Middle East policy? Did that work?
What was Reagan's Middle East policy? Did that work?
What was Bush 41's Middle East policy? Did that work?
What was Bush 43's Middle East policy? Did that . . . never mind.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMikeB -- just because a policy doesn't resolve the "Middle East problem" doesn't mean it doesn't exist, but to exist as a policy it has to have some characteristics that distinguish it from a total lack of a policy (i.e. it must have some foundational principles).
I'm not saying Dr. Hanson is correct, though I do agree with him. It just may mean that Obama's policy is so nuanced it appears somewhat random (to me). Are you able to articulate Obama's Middle East policy?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMike ...
calm down ... read the article again ... VDH is talking about the doctrine aka the policy ... not about success or failure in solving any one particular issue ...
maybe I didn't pay enough attention in 2008 but it sure seemed to me that Obama acted like and assumed he COULD solve the Middle East crisis ... don't blame VDH for his failure to reach his own expectation ...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMike - Obama assured us that "this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal". Don't you feel just a tad chagrined that his hype didn't begin to match his ability?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama has developed more strategy for picking Kansas, Pittsburgh, Ohio State and Duke.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama's policy on anything not in his own personal interests is "nuanced, cool but competent, distant yet aloof" and any other description you care to add for dangerously incompetent.
The "problem" of the middle east is 50+ years in the making. There are no easy solutions, only some sober albeit, difficult choices - like stopping funding for people who actively despise us.
This President has no interest in foreign affairs, and has proven it on any number of occasions - but none so blatant as current events.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseVery Un-Presidential, and thoroughly Un-American. We lead - we don't follow anyone.
Thanks Mr. Hanson.
The subtititle is..."The problem with Obama’s Middle East policy is that there is no policy."
The surprise is?
You poor lib-progresive-independents...the failure of your ultimate Castrati is really hard you...sad that your view of "history" is your last and only refuge...your last tiresome and enemic but predictable feline argument!!!
What Fun!!!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFunny, Rimfrel -- I ask what each Republican president's Middle East policy was, and you ask me what Obama's is?
I could probably articulate each president's policy given enough time and space, and they wouldn't differ all that much from each other's. Israel is our close friend and ally whose right to exist within secure borders is a bedrock principle of American policy, we nevertheless need to be a fair peace broker, we support freedom and democracy in Arab lands, blah blah blah.
Dr. Hanson is nothing but empty criticism. He's like a professor at a second-tier school who thinks every leading light in his field is a purveyor of pure garbage. He's conservatism-by-the-word. He knows how to blow dog-whistle notes though his snide-o-phone so as to make conservatives think they're hearing a symphony. Together with his acknowledged expertise in areas unrelated to governance in industrialized nations, this makes him an NR favorite and C-SPAN regular. I have been reading his pieces closely for the past several months. I'll assume that he's a real expert on the Peloponnesian War. But when it comes to public policy, he's a dud. A well educated, articulate, gentleman-farmer dud.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think that Obama is trying not to make a decision, so as not to make anyone feel that the US is trying to impose its will...but what he does not seem to understand is that not making a decision is making a decision and carries with it all of the risks of any choice of action.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDemocracy and an Islamic state are irreconcilably inconsistent. An Islamic state will continuously be trending toward an ever more extreme version of sharia law. Because the rules of sharia law are the revealed word of Allah, no democratically elected government has the power to modify sharia law, at least not for long. It follows, ironically, that the form of government which is most likely to secure the blessings of Western liberal values in a majority Muslim country is a secular dictatorship.
In addition, and regardless of the level of civil liberty practiced on the domestic front in any given secular dictatorship, a secular dictatorship tends to be more favorable to American interests than either an Islamic dictatorship or an Islamic republic. (Note too that the term "Islamic republic" is probably redundant, as there can be no such thing as a non-Islamic republic in a Muslim country, at least not for long.)
While these dirty little secrets are the truth of the matter, it is unreasonable to criticize any Western head of state who fails to say them out loud. Rather, we should judge our leaders by their results. On a proof of the pudding metric, the Bush 43 adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan score very poorly, with the long term prognosis being even worse than the present realities. The Obama examples of Egypt and Tunisia currently score as, so far so good. Ultimately both countries will devolve into theocratic, sharia-infused disasters. But for now, and at least through the general election in November 2012, they compare very favorably to Afghanistan and Iraq.
In the case of Libya, assuming Khadafy survives, domestic civil liberties are and will be non-existent. But as far as the effect on American interests, a continuation of the Khadafy regime also compares very favorably to Afghanistan and Libya. This is a condition which is also likely to persist through November 2012.
In any event, neither in Tunisia, Egypt, nor Libya has there been a meaningful opportunity for President Obama to have influenced the result; at least not short of another Iraq-style invasion. Unless we're ready to argue that we should have mounted another such invasion -- or three! -- this is another reason why it's unreasonable to criticize the President with respect to these three countries.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMike B...you forgot C2...Carter and Clinton...or was that on purpose?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLet's review MikeB's contribution. As I read his screed he seems to say, after much thought, that all President's policies were the same and since Obama is a President his policies are the same. This would imply that allPresident's are equally good and therefore Obama is equally good.
I've haven't heard such nonsensical equivocation and relativism since I was an undergraduate, and I loathed it then.
Obama ran against everything he does and when faced with something new freezes and does nothing. Eventually our enemies will figure out just what our ability to react is (not a whit) and after we lose a city or two, half of the Middle East oil production and a few countries the MikeB defenders of the progressive status quo will scurry back under their sophmoric rocks and adults can return to government.
Unfortunately, by then, we'll be in a war environment and lots of people will be dieing. The only good news is moral relativism, pseudo realpolitik (not even applicable within an Islamicist driven world) and progressivism will be driven from the public space.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhen leftists like MikeB feel their best argument is the claim that Republican presidents weren't any better than The Anointed One, you know that Obama is indeed a failure.
And conveniently skipping over Carter and Clinton even further reduces the intellectual honesty and value of said argument.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@ MikeB
You've been reading VDH closely for a whole bunch of undisclosed number of months? Congratulations! That obviously means you can, as you said, articulate any number of Obama's positions. Unfortunately, you don't do that. You also say you won't do that. That's too bad, because someone who's been reading VDH closely for an undisclosed number of months should know at least as much as VDH does (if not a LOT more). Someone who only seriously tackles stuff like the Peloponnesian War really should branch out and write about 9/11, college education, immigration, World War II, Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, jihad, economics....
Oh wait. People who've been reading VDH for an undisclosed number of years already know he has.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse'tis glaringly obvious by now that the All Talk No Action Nonentity at the WH is innately incapable of making decisions. The obvious question is: why is that the case? One would logically conclude that someone who worked so hard to be POTUS would be someone not afraid to make decisions, even hard and potentially risky decisions.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMikeB: Just because other presidents tried things that didn't work doesn't excuse Obama from not trying anything at all.
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