Here’s the nub of the problem that the U.S. and its allies now face in Libya: They’ve got a very expansive authorization to use force, but on behalf of a very limited objective, i.e., protecting Libyan civilians. However, President Obama and his British and French counterparts have made clear that Qaddafi’s ouster is the strategic purpose of their national policies. At least in theory, if Qaddafi were smart enough to actually suspend his military operations, stop attacking civilians, and seek urgent mediation of a ceasefire through the good offices of the U.N. secretary general, he might indeed be able to stay the hand of allied forces and buy himself some much-needed time to undermine the disparate international coalition that now confronts him. Supplied with the slightest hint of reasonableness from Qaddafi, I bet there’s a decent chance that the likes of Russia, China, and Turkey, to name but a few, would jump at the opportunity to give peace a chance, throw Qaddafi a lifeline, and short-circuit any chance of a successful Western military intervention.
Resolution 1973 actually identifies a ceasefire as its goal. But a ceasefire that leaves Qaddafi in control of at least half of Libya is a formula for long-term stalemate that the U.S. should want no part of. While it averts, temporarily at least, the worst-case outcome of a humanitarian nightmare wherein the rebel stronghold of Benghazi is wiped out, it does little to advance the strategic goal of quickly seeing the bloody-minded Qaddafi replaced by a new order that treats its people with some minimal degree of decency, restores Libya’s place in the world economy, and works with friendly countries to combat extremism. On the contrary, it leaves the U.S. military policing an open-ended face-off between Tripoli and Benghazi; U.S. diplomats fighting a losing battle to maintain the cohesion of what is almost certain to be a fair-weather coalition (the Arab League is already moaning that they asked for a no-fly zone, not a bombardment); and U.S. credibility and prestige eroding each time Qaddafi trumpets to the world that he’s defied Obama’s demand that he go. Quagmire, anyone?
In his statement on Friday, Obama wisely sought to avoid this predicament by establishing “non-negotiable” conditions for a ceasefire that went well beyond merely an end to hostilities. In addition to silencing their guns, he demanded that Qaddafi’s forces withdraw from territory in eastern and western Libya that they’d previously re-taken from the rebels, including areas within striking distance of Tripoli itself. Being forced to undertake such a retreat would subject Qaddafi and his forces to a much-heightened degree of humiliation and demoralization. It would certainly increase the likelihood of mass defections from his ranks, or that someone from his inner circle acts decisively against him. Of course, should Qaddafi choose not to comply, the coalition would be free to continue the systematic dismantling of his military capabilities, which could well trigger the same instinct for self-survival and flight amongst his loyalists.
But assuming that Qaddafi could comply with Obama’s ceasefire demands and survive, then what? Presumably, the rebels would be subject to the ceasefire as well. What would happen if they regrouped and began again to march their forces west toward Qaddafi’s stronghold in Sitre and, eventually, Tripoli? Resolution 1973 authorizes foreign militaries to act to defend civilians from the onslaught of Qaddafi’s forces. But what are the rules of engagement when it’s the rebels who are initiating hostilities and on the offensive? Do Qaddafi’s forces have the right to fight back and defend his regime if the rebels violate the ceasefire? Would the U.S. and its allies fly air cover for an advancing rebel army? That would certainly be consistent with their goal of seeing Qaddafi removed from power. But it would also almost certainly put them at odds with the U.N. resolution that Obama has put so much stock in and made the touchstone of his policy.
The bottom line is that the U.S., its allies, and the Libyan rebels should be doing everything in their power to avoid a ceasefire and drive Qaddafi from power quickly. Obama’s preemptive move to set a very high ceasefire bar, which will be difficult for Qaddafi to accept, was exactly the right thing to do. All the evidence so far also suggests that Qaddafi will be an unwitting ally in this effort, as his forces continue their brutal assaults around the country even as his diplomats blatantly lie that their guns have gone silent. Allied air power must exploit the free hand they currently have to degrade massively Qaddafi’s entire military machine in all its facets, ground, air and naval. Command and control nodes, including the headquarters and bunkers of Qaddafi and his key sons must also be targeted. To borrow a much maligned phrase, “shock and awe” should be the order of the day if we hope to shorten the conflict, limit overall suffering, and achieve our strategic objectives.
As quickly as they are able to regroup, rebel forces should be enabled and encouraged to take advantage of ongoing allied military efforts to resume their march west, re-seizing lost territory and threatening Qaddafi strongholds. At the same time, as daunting as it may be, the rebels should encourage their supporters in Tripoli to resurrect their uprising in the capital. If Qaddafi’s forces move again to repress civilians there, the liberation of Tripoli from the regime’s thugs would then become a legitimate addition to Obama’s ceasefire demands and further grounds for continuing to dismantle his military. And if Qaddafi were to waver in Tripoli, the likelihood that his regime would soon be overwhelmed by the street and rapidly unravel would increase exponentially.
If President Obama acts now with boldness and resolve, a window does exist for avoiding a long-term U.S. military commitment in Libya and achieving a rapid end of Qaddafi’s regime. But the opening is narrow and could close fast. It will likely require the president to demonstrate a degree of ruthlessness on the battlefield, and a willingness to incur a degree of criticism internationally, that have not exactly been his forte to date. One hopes that the dark shadow of a costly, drawn-out military engagement in the Mediterranean without end in sight will provide the president sufficient incentive to overcome whatever hesitation may exist in this regard. If he does, Obama will have succeeded in limiting the suffering of the Libyan people and significantly advancing America’s national interests and global standing, a pretty good day’s work that all Americans would rightly applaud.
— John Hannah is a former national-security adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney.
Re: "If President Obama acts now with boldness and resolve...demonstrate a degree of ruthlessness on the battlefield,"
Obama? On his own? By what Constitutional authority? That is absolutely nuts!
But of course Hannah learned everything he knows about Executive usurpation from the Constitutional Shredder in Chief Dick Cheney.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJust as there is no showing that any likely replacement regime would be better than the Khadafy status quo, there is no showing that the Hannah-Cheney approach would be better than the Clinton-Rice-Powers status quo. They all stink, and that fact alone is enough for the U.S. have stayed away.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWho says today's rebels won't be tomorrow's new oppressors?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn what universe of foreign policy is a policy to oust a foreign leader simply assumed into existence on top of a humanitarian mission that's about three days old?
"[O]uster is the strategic purpose of [U.S.] national polic[y]."
On what grounds, might I ask, does ousting Qaddafi qualify as a U.S. strategic purpose?
If it could somehow be defined as a strategic purpose, given the limited store of U.S. strategic capital, then Qaddafi's ouster would fall very far down the queue of strategic items on which to invest that capital.
If the only answer to that is that Obama "already said so" (Qaddafi must go), then I respectfully say that what we have here is a fundamental misunderstanding of the American role in the world.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse>"To borrow a much maligned phrase, “shock and awe” should be the order of the day if we hope to shorten the conflict, limit overall suffering, and achieve our strategic objectives."
We don't HAVE a strategic objective. The only justifications I hear for going to war in Libya are (1) to save Libyan "civilians", by which in practice is meant the the anti-Qaddafi rebels, and (2) because the US must be seen to as "a world leader" for some reason which is never spelled out.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt is utterly mindless to extend this war on terror into a new theater.
This war is going on 13 years and there is no end in sight.
It will be known as one of the greatest mistakes in our history - a foreign entanglement with an enemy of little threat while our own cities fall in decay.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr Hannah, do you realize that we are dropping bombs in support of the same terrorists that perpetrated 9-11. It is no secret that some of these jihadis are al-Queda.
We now fight on the same side as Abu Yahya al-Libi (the Libyan)...go ahead, google that name.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy should Gadhaffi be driven from power, seeing as how we can't even agree on how to spell his name? Is this from a nation where a considerable proportion of the populace isn't sure if its President is constitutionally qualified for the job, and where the evidence can't be produced?
Has anyone ever produced evidence that crimes such as the Lockerbie bombing trace back to Gadhaffi, rather than to the opposition forces that seek to depose him?
Sure, maybe he's a nut case. But I see no evidence that his opponents are less nutty. And, if the purpose is not to support his opponents, but rather military conquest and installation of a government favorable to foreign (that's us and Israel) interests, then it's just as nutty and criminal.
So glad I dodged the draft.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDid you fail to notice that the French were the first to fight and take out the tanks near Benghazi on their own?
Obama is not running the show, he already did our part. By tomorrow Sarkozi (sp) is in charge and QuackDaffy is toast. Obama was the last guy to show up to the party after all. He is no longer needed, much less wanted. I will give him credit for doing what he did. Our role will be minimal now though and the slog will be handled by the Brits and French.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLet me get this straight.
So, we bypass Iran, which is a mad Islamic regime run by a lunatic who can't tie his own tie because he's too busy enriching uranium and fantasizing about the 12th Imam and the annihilation of Israel.
We bypass Syria, which is another mad regime, run by another lunatic who has never met a terrorist he didn't like.
We bypass North Korea, which is run by a chia-pet-looking madman who starves his own people so that he can sink his neighbor's ships, destabilize a whole region and pal up with the world's absolute worst.
We bend over to Russia, Venezuela and Brasil.
We send millions to "Palestine," so that they can keep buying their monthly supply of Presto EverSharp to produce cleaner cuts on lactating Israeli babies. Oh, that's right, it's because of a few apartment blocks built on "their" "land." Silly me.
We respond to the decapitations and mass executions in a narco-hellhole like Mexico by opening up our borders even more and suing the state of Arizona.
We have no idea of who is opposing Ghaddafi, what their ties are to Islamic extremism, what our national interest is to pick one species of roaches over another, in a place that is at least in the double digits down our national interest priority list.
...And I should be rooting for Ghaddafi's oust because?
Mr. Hannah, you have been inhaling inside-the-beltway fumes for too long. Take a break and give us a break as well.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy did Obama want others (Britain, France, and Lebanon) to take the lead in sponsoring a UN Security Council resolution to authorize use of military force to protect innocent civilians in Libya?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo, in Libya we have a civil war, started by the rebels. Those rebels (who we don't know) are fighting Quadaffi (who we don't like). The rebels attack their government and capture territory (and we play golf). Quadaffi "saddles up" and attacks the rebels. Some of the military can't be trusted (they are now rebels) so he hires some mercenaries. Quadaffi is driving the rebels back and retaking territory (in his country) that the rebels had occupied. Most of Libya's oil goes to Europe and they are concerned.
We are still playing golf and the UN puts together a resolution that is basically impossible to follow and we start a no fly zone. Obama puts conditions on a cease fire that would require Quadaffi, the leader of the country, to withdraw from all territory that the rebels had won from, and subsequently lost to, loyal Libyan forces.
We believe that this is a reasonable requirement, that the Government of Libya give up territory that was lost and then retaken from rebels. At the same time, we are dumping all over Israel for building an apartment building on land that is owned by Jews in Jerusalem, their capital. This is also land that Israel won after being attacked repeatedly by their neighbors.
Is it possible for our foreign policy to be more erratic? The key to stability is consistency. This works in your household with the rules for your family, domestically with items such as taxes and internationally when we act consistently in our dealings with other nations.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMore than 120 Tomahawk missile were fired into Libya to knockout their air defenses to establish a 'no-fly zone'-24/7 over Libya. An American jet was shot down in Libya but the pilots ejected and were recovered and flown to safety. How and why did happen?
In order to keep a minimum of four American jets flying to cover Libya 24/7...a minimum 18 sorties by air refueling tankers is required. Very expensive and extremely dangerous.
I suggest the coalition put together by the UN be allowed them to 'kill' all of the airports landing strips to prevent flights from leaving or entering Libya.
Helicopters should be shot down when they become airborn. This action will save lives and a bunch of money to assist the rebels in defeating Kadaffi and his remaining army. BTW, who are the rebels??
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI know I'm a bit of a Constitutionalist prig, but it is entirely incorrect to say we've "got a very expansive authorization to use force" in Libya. All that exists is a UN resolution. The UN does not have the capacity to authorize any use of force by our country. That power rests solely and exclusively with our Congress; last time I looked the UN did not have a seat in our Congress. To accept that a UN resolution constitutes authorization for the American president to commit troops without Congressional authorization is to accept that our government is subordinate to the UN. I don't think so.
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