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So What Now?

The administration’s incoherence about the Libyan intervention is the logical culmination of Obama’s naive reset-button diplomacy and his skepticism about the role and history of the U.S. abroad — a sort of capstone to, for instance, surging while setting troop withdrawal deadlines in Afghanistan, loudly promising to close Guantanamo within a year then failing to do so, and praising the U.N. and apologizing for the U.S. In a sense, all that hubris earned this present nemesis.

That said, the administration will have to, at some point, ignore all its past and present rhetoric, and accept that its imperiled mission now hinges on destroying from the air as many of Qaddafi’s assets as possible to ensure that the rebels take Tripoli and slay the monster — given that Qaddafi could easily still defeat the insurgency without using his airspace. Obama no doubt realizes that he can do this pivot, and still offer his trademark ‘make no mistake about it,’ ‘let me be perfectly clear’ Guantanamo-like hedging, claiming that he really is still sticking to a no-fly-zone-only intervention, which so far he most certainly has not.

In other words, I think the dilemma now for the administration is to stop the public rhetoric about toning down the war, and as soon as possible so damage Qaddafi’s resources through air attacks that the rebels might be able to take the country, and to use what little leverage we have with the insurgency to find out who they — and what their aims and objectives — really are.

In the days ahead, I would suppose we will hear less of these conflicting public dramatics and assume a far more quiet position of “no-fly zone” and “patrolling” attacks on armor, artillery, and troop concentrations, many of them outsourced to our allies. There is no other way to stop the slaughter — which is not to say that it is a sure way to stop the slaughter, given that Qaddafi’s troops are far better equipped and trained, and are still fully capable of themselves becoming insurgents and dead-enders like the Baathists in Iraq, should the rebels prove inept and weak at governance. Still, at this point, there is little other choice — unless one would tolerate a divided East Libya/West Libya, a multi-year no-fly zone, a Somalia, or a ‘tamed’ Qaddafi still in power. I assume all the latter are unacceptable scenarios, given the sure-to-come unending bloodshed, as well as the raising of the ante and the degree of American prestige, competency, and resolve that is now out on the table — and yet under real doubt.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   11

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   03/24/11 10:43

The Administration has "decided" it will hand over control of the no-fly-zone on Saturday. Hardly the actions of a President who intends to roll up his sleeves and do the hard work VDH suggests.

If America prevails in Libya, by which I mean Qaddafi is deposed...or decomposed perhaps...nothing more, it will be because the amazingly resourceful and capable U.S. Military dragged Obama over the goal line.

Victory beyond that? Difficult to see anyone in Libya coming out better on the other side.

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   03/24/11 10:44

The Administration has "decided" it will hand over control of the no-fly-zone on Saturday. Hardly the actions of a President who intends to roll up his sleeves and do the hard work VDH suggests.

If America prevails in Libya, by which I mean Qaddafi is deposed...or decomposed perhaps...nothing more, it will be because the amazingly resourceful and capable U.S. Military dragged Obama over the goal line.

Victory beyond that? Difficult to see anyone in Libya coming out better on the other side.

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   03/24/11 11:04

I would rather see Obama say and do nothing on Libya than be completely eratic and then allow Qadaffi to win. That would be a complete disaster.

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   03/24/11 11:17

With air superiority over Libya the coalition aircraft can hit Gaddafi's air force (what still remains of it that is) as well as any armor that has been deployed to the east. With precision guided munitions, the coalition can take out his tanks and artillery as if they were sitting ducks. Should the French lets say drop off a few hundred anti-tank weapons to the rebels, eastern Libya can be protected from further attack. Resupply of Gaddafis forces by Iran or Syria by air or sea can easily be stopped by coalition aircraft or ships, as long as they stay. Does this decimation of Tripoli's
defenses allow the rebels to prevail? At least, in the near term it means that Bengahzi is likely to be able to defend itself and restore oil supplies to Italy.

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Dennis Nicholls
   03/24/11 11:37

If I understand correctly, modern day Libya was cobbled together by the occupying Italians from Tripolitania and Cyrenaica just prior to WWI. Would a partition back into those two states be that unreasonable, given the long history of tribal government in the area? Note: most all the oil is in Cyrenaica.

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jtainsf
   03/24/11 12:00

I would feel better if I thought the President's blanket exclusion of land combat forces was understood by the President and the Pentagon not to exclude forward air support observers -- that is, on-the-ground teams identifying and marking potential targets for air attack, and also, importantly, defining bomb lines and other identifications of friends and foes. In Afghanistan, FASOs were typically Air Force personnel, I believe, though the Marines certainly also have the capability.

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   03/24/11 12:27

France gave the irregulars in Chad Milan antitank missiles and put about 24 Mirages on top cover to keep the gunships off of them. Those irregulars had 400 Toyota pickup trucks and not much else. Libya lost that war. And they were united politically at the time.

This is not the Warsaw Pact. It is a very weak force with very low readiness and no professionalism or combat experience at all. Yes they have armor and artillery and at the moment the rebels have only RPGs and HMGs on technicals. But equip those rebels with a few modern weapons and add air cover, and they most certainly can defeat Qaddafi's goon squad.

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 cab
   03/24/11 14:21

Hillary is surely enjoying Obama's bungling while she gets ready to move back to the White House. What a mess on so many levels.

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   03/24/11 16:17

If we find out that these rebels are not our friends, why not allow Qaddafi to kill as many as possible as quickly as possible. Once he's minimized their numbers, then we take him out.

Time won't be on our side for that strategy, since allowing Qaddafi to kill undermines our raison d'etre there, but this seems to me to be the most sensible way to angle this.

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   03/24/11 21:03

Hillary isn't going to run. It's March, she is not fundraising, she was in debt up to her ears after 2008, Ted Kennedy wounded Carter, and the first caucuses/primaries start in January. If she isn't on the ground campaigning by August, it's done.

Never say never the old saying goes...but I don't see Hillary wading into that swamp. She got *beat* by Obama, replete with charges of racism. Hillary will hold out for 2016. There is no way the Dems nominate Joe Biden.

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bigdaddy#21
   03/27/11 19:29

Handing off to NATO = Handing off to a U.S. led coalition. The ability to tout a "hand-off" to NATO is nothing more then a political play on words. The only force capable of running something this complex on the face of the earth is the United States Military. The NATO commander will still be based in Naples and looks a great deal just like the ADM who is in charge right now.... It continues to amaze me, that through two successive administrations, no true understanding of the strategic use of force exists... I am in complete amazement at the lack of strategic forethought currently possessed by our current "leadership." Idealists are great at starting wars, but they will have to be fought and won by realists. Where is our Eisenhower, when we need him?

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