Mitt Romney captures 24 percent of the Tea Party vote, according to a Pew poll released yesterday. Mike Huckabee came in second, nabbing 19 percent of Tea Partiers. Rounding off the top five are Newt Gingrich (15 percent), Ron Paul (13 percent), and Sarah Palin (12 percent).
That's a sad commentary. Anyone have anything for or against Pawlenty? All I know so far is, "Bland, but acceptable."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFour more years here we come.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnd, pray, what great contortions did the questions endure to place Mitt Romney high in the hearts of the Tea Party?
Please, if NRO wants to endorse Mitt, just do it already and stop pretending that these 'some-say' articles are anything else.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse382 self-described Republicans (6.5% error!)
503 self-described Democrats (5.5% error)
570 self-described Independents (5.0% error)
Does not sound like a very good sampling....
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don't buy it. The Tea Party hates ObamaCare and Romney (a great guy in many ways) is indelibly connected with it. And Mike Huckabee is worse on fiscal and foreign policy than BHO.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI suspect most tea partiers do not yet know about the disaster that Romneycare has been for MA. It will be up to pundits and his primary opponents to vigorously point this out. Romney's problem is that he seems unwilling to distance himself from the mistakes made in MA, so fairly or not, they will be viewed as his mistakes, too. If the GOP nominee cannot effectively attack Obamacare, then indeed we are doomed to another 4 years of The One.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSad is right, might as well throw in Bob Dole, John McCain, Christie Whitman, Nurse Bloomberg, etc...........
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe must hope that this poll is as flawed as wotan's analysis suggests. If it is not, then it indicates that the Tea Party is becoming too diffuse and losing the focus that makes it an influential element of the body politic. Some of this is to be expected in a GOP primary environment, as opposed to general election; but a quarter of TPers preferring the architect of Obamacare 1.0 is a surefire indication of the onset of incoherence. Let us hope that Pew has produced an outlier mess here.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI find it pretty hard to swallow that there's much love for Romney in the Tea Party. But between the fact that he comes in first with a tiny plurality and it's so early I don't put much stock in this poll. This is purely a measure of name recognition that will bear little resemblance to actual voting.
And yes, I have no doubt NR will endorse him, just as they did last time.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's increasingly hard to see anyone other than Mitt winning the Republican nomination. This poll suggests he has enough support among conservative, outside-the-beltway Republicans to prevent a rightwing revolt if he begins to become the presumptive GOP nominee. All Romney probably needs is some support on the conservative wing of the Republican Party, since he already is a favored candidate for more moderate, establishment Republicans. And if Romney is not totally despised by the Tea Party, it makes it less viable for another candidate to run as the anti-Romney, especially when those potential candidates have liabilities of their own.
In addition, Romney seems to be winning the war for Republican donors, which could give him the airtime and groundgame he needs to deal with any criticisms:
External Link
Many commenters here have suggested that it is premature for sites like this to compare and criticize Republicans before they have even announced that they are running. But given the advantages Romney has, and the GOP's tendency to nominate the "next in line," these are basically arguments for making Romney the nominee. By the time the first serious debates roll around, Romney may have the money and base of support to simply roll over any rivals, and may be able to keep stronger candidates from entering the race at all. I don't have any dog in this fight, but Romney seems like the likely nominee unless the base rallies around an anti-Romney even before debates and primaries begin in earnest.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRomney is ahead due to electability concerns of the other candidates.
Check out this PPP poll on Palin: She doesnt even dent 50% in a single state that they polled.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseExternal Link
Define Tea Party...
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuseand what exactly is a "Tea Partier"?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis all changes the day that Huckabee announces he's not running.
19% + Palin's 12% = 31%
It will be a long waiting game. The media, which needs GOP candidates NOW to keep their staffers busy and increase their web traffic and ratings, cannot rig this election.
The "boys" are all waiting to see what "the girl" does. As I said, it will be a long waiting game.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePalin places 4th in a "Tea Party" poll, and yet all the ususal suspects uses the opportunity to attack Palin.
If this poll is correct, why all the worry about Palin? She would not win the nomination, right?
I think we all know the answer to both the validity to this poll and motivation behind the attacks on Palin.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHow is it explained away that Romney doesn't get 24% of the vote from Republicans at large but can get 24% of the gr*ss-roots "Tea Partiers".
This is the type of an*lysis we can look forward to from NRO? Thanks but no thanks.
Almost comical (and sorry about the multiple posts, I can assure you it won't happen again.)
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMitt will get my vote.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe "Tea Party" is basically a loose group of politically active conservatives that don't like Obama or his policies, just like the "anti-war" movement during Bush's Presidency was a group of Leftists that didn't like Bush. (you'll notice now they're completely silent).
I don't buy that the Tea Party is a "pure" group that only cares about fiscal policy. Even "rock-ribbed" conservatives and "tea party" participants are backing Romney because they want to win, not because he's some perfect fiscal conservative.
That's actually quite rational, I think the "Tea Party" saw the results of candidates like Christine O'Donnell and Sharon Angle, and they learned a very painful lesson. Losing to left-wing Democrats because you want to run "pure" candidates actually doesn't help achieve anything.
Unless someone else jumps in like Chris Christie or Paul Ryan, the contest will come down to Pawlenty or Romney. I actually think either will likely beat Obama in 2012. I'm willing to cut Romney some slack because defeating Obama is 90% of the goal for me, and I think Romney would do really well with independent voters.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJulie, I think it's a mistake to assume that all the support Huckabee gets in this poll would go to Palin. It is true that their actual policy beliefs are probably similar, but their personalities are very different. People who appreciate Huckabee's sunniness and emphathetic nature may not be drawn to Palin's more caustic, aggressive political personality.
Indeed, the increasingly common Republican view that Palin is unelectable does not really have to do with her politics, which are not particularly fringe, but with her temperment, personality, and intelligence. Even a Huckabee supporter who agrees, in principle, with much of what Palin says may be put off by how she says it, and will likely be reluctant to enter the Palin fold.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs we get closer to the election (and yes I know we are still far far away), Republican voters (including tea partiers)are going to assess the candidates, weigh the flaws they each have, and then vote for the one who can beat Obama. And I think that's the correct way to go. (and it's also why Romney will win the nomination).
Recall that in the days after the Nov08 election there was quite a bit of buyer's remorse among Republicans, who realized that Romney would have beaten Obama. In the months to come, the candidates will all duke it out, and Romney will have to better explain (or write off) what happened with Mass care, but in the end is it realistic to think that tea partiers don't realize Romney is pro-economic growth? Of course he is. Mass care is a problem, but it won't doom him.
(BTW I had originally written Mass care as one word and the NRO filter wouldn't let it through: Your comment cannot be posted since it contains objectionable language. Even the computer know that state mandated healthcare is objectionable :-)
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse