As is their habit, President Obama and his post-speech spinners have framed his supposed achievements in Libya at the expense of his predecessors. As is also their habit, they have played with the truth.
Yes, Bill Clinton dithered in the Balkans and obtained neither congressional nor U.N. approval before beginning to bomb Milosevic. But Clinton was seeking to bomb a European Christian capital on behalf of Muslim victims, which was a hard sell to many Europeans and an impossible one to Russia on the Security Council. I suggest that, should the Balkans heat up and we again see ethnic cleansing of the late 1990s sort, the laureate Obama will be even less successful than was Clinton in galvanizing the Europeans to take action and persuading Russia not to veto a U.N. resolution. Clinton and Holbrooke also made it clear that they wanted Milosevic out — and accomplished that clear goal in 11 weeks following military operations, with a much larger coalition than the present one.
As for Iraq, the spin has involved disturbing distortions well aside from the administration’s serial contradictions on that war (at various times, Obama has wanted all troops out by March 2008, declared the surge a failure, suggested “There’s not much of a difference between my position on Iraq and George Bush’s position at this stage,” etc.). Bush, unlike Obama, went to both houses of Congress for authorization to use military force to remove Saddam (obtaining 23 resolutions way beyond fears of WMD), and he tried to go to the U.N. over a year-long period of negotiations. He had more allies in his coalition than Obama has now, both in numbers and in size of military assets, and had a clear vision of what the mission was (e.g., remove Saddam and foster a constitutional government to avoid the reappearance of a Saddam-like tyrant). Going into the heart of the ancient caliphate, between theocratic Iran and Saudi Arabia and with neighbors such as Syria, to take out someone who had fought one war with the U.S., survived 12 years of a no-fly zone, attacked four surrounding countries, and long presided over vast oil wealth and 26 million people, is a somewhat more difficult task than following the British and French into a Mediterranean country of 6.5 million people.
One can argue over the wisdom of American involvement in both the Balkans and Iraq, but to suggest that our Libyan endeavor presents anywhere near the military, logistical, diplomatic, or political challenges of those two involvements is ludicrous.
Instead of critiquing past interventions in this ahistorical and self-serving fashion, the president needs to state clearly: What is the mission, what methods will be used to complete it, and what end result do we desire to accrue from it? Despite a belated address to the nation, we still have no idea whether we are or are not after Qaddafi. We both brag of taking out ground assets and seem to promise that we won’t do it again. We boast of U.N. and Arab League resolutions, then, with a wink and nod, sometimes sorta-but-sorta-not go beyond their letter and spirit. We talk about congressional dialogue, but still have not presented a request to use force against Libya to either house of Congress. And, to my knowledge, we still haven’t figured out who the rebels are, and whether they are preferable to the Qaddafi monster in rehab, for whom (along with his petrodollars) Western universities, diplomats, intellectuals, and academics seemed recently to have developed a creepy affinity.
So, before we pass historical judgment on two past interventions (and, for all their tragedies, Iraq is now one of the few constitutional states in the region and the Balkans are still relatively quiet), let us first ensure that the Libya adventure works. It would be premature to claim, in mediis rebus, not only success, but success in ways that Obama’s predecessors might have envied.
Well stated.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell said as always, Dr. Hanson.
The further wrinkle with Libya is that we already know this war CAN NOT "work." The best result at this point is the removal of Qaddafi. And that still leaves us with (1) a nation-building mess on our hands, (2) armed, triumphant and likely bloodthirsty rebels whose best-organized faction are the Islamists, and (3) a clear message sent to anti-American dictators everywhere: DO NOT LET THE AMERICANS TRICK YOU INTO GIVING UP YOUR NUKES!
So the best case scenario is still a bad result for America, and we'd have been better off not getting involved in this emotion-driven fiasco.
The worst case scenario is Qaddafi sticks around, and then we have all the same problems as above, plus a Qaddafi who's ticked off at America and eager to revive his nuclear program and terrorism. While we probably feel obligated to spend a fortune on some kind of permanent military cordon around the hapless rebels.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe U.S. foreign military adventure by the numbers: (1) Ruthless despot brutalizes his people. (2) The story makes it to the front page of the mainstream media. (3) American President responds to MSM headlines with increasingly frequent pronouncements that it's not nice for ruthless despots to brutalize their people. (4) Nattering nabobs of negativity opine that American prestige is now on the line, that our enemies are watching, that our *friends* are watching, that gosh-darn-it-we gotta-do-something! (5) We *do* something. (6) Oops we broke it. (7) We own it. (8) A couple years and a couple hundred billion later: "Who's next?"
So depressing, so familiar, so predictable. How to break the cycle? Easy: stop at Number 3. Our national prestige is *not* on the line every time some pipsqueak dictator decides to take out his Daddy issues on his subject. *We* define our national interest, not the transnational multi-culti members of the MSM, not the gimme gimme boys of the UN, not the knee-jerk "fur the last'n, fur this'n, fur the next'n" warmongers of the right, and surely not the ruthless despots with the Daddy issues.
To the extent Obama does stop at Number 3, whether in Egypt, Yemen, Syria, or "the next'n," he's got it right. Give him credit and urge him to keep up the good work.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou all seem to proceed on the premise that Quaaddafi will lose. Last reports I read had the "rebels" retreating as fast as their armed Toyotas could carry them. What do we do when they collapse, and Moamar remains in power? The choices seem then to be to go in and do the jobs ourselves. (Won't that be fun? We will then be in a position to democratize another Muslim country, who will sing our praise, and thank us endlessly.) Or in the alternative, do nothing more, and wait for the Victorious Conqueror of the North African Peoples to resume bombing our planes filled with tourists out of the sky, and sending suicide minions into cafes to self explode, taking countless infidels with them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhere are the Libyan rebels retreating to? General Montgomery, the last military commander routed from eastern Libya probably could tell you.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse180 out
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think that we are already at #5, and BTW, the insulting, incredibly condescending "southern" red neck "accent" (I was waiting for you to add the standard word "gubmint") shows that despite your moniker, you aren't really too many degrees out from your elitist SF neighbors.
<< But Clinton was seeking to bomb a European Christian capital on behalf of Muslim victims >>
Sorry,VDH has this wrong (and I usually think he's right).
First, Belgrade was no more Christian than Havana is. Milosevic and the rest of the Yugoslav leadership were longtime hardcore communists and not religious at all. The religion on the residents of Belgrade or anywhere else in the region is/was irrelevant.
Second, when Serb troops marched into Kosovar Albanian homes they didnt ask them if they were Muslim or Christian (and many Albanians are Christian). They carried out an ETHNIC cleansing, not a religious one. The war was against all Albanians, not against Muslims.
Third, to VDH's point that Europe was reluctant to intervene because of religion, this was certainly true during the Bosnian war. But by the time of the Kosovo war, European capitals had had plenty of experience with Albanians to know that they are a very secular.
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