Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) released the fifth issue of its English-language magazine, Inspire, on jihadist forums this week. The recent issue, “The Tsunami of Change,” dedicates significant space to the spreading political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. The underlying theme of previous issues — encouraging individuals to attack Western targets — is carried over into the new issue. The existence of AQAP in Yemen makes the recent instability in that country unique in the broader wave of unrest across the Middle East.
The protests throughout Yemen are occurring at a time when AQAP is al-Qaeda’s most active franchise. AQAP has launched two attacks on the U.S. homeland since late 2009. The unrest in Yemen could benefit AQAP in two immediate ways: The unrest creates more space for AQAP’s activities and increases AQAP’s chances of evading counterterrorism operations. In the past week, an Islamic emirate has been declared in Abyan governorate while Ali Abdullah Saleh’s historically weak regime appeared to have lost further control over territory. There are already indications that AQAP is planning another attack and that the plot may be more concrete than the information typically picked up from terrorist chatter.
Saleh’s regime in Yemen is unstable as protracted negotiations over Yemen’s political future proceed indecisively. The specter of state collapse or fragmentation has become very real. Secretary of Defense Gates said this past weekend that “if [Saleh’s] government collapses or is replaced by one that is dramatically more weak, then I think we’ll face some additional challenges out of Yemen.” There are several key issues that need to be addressed in order to re-evaluate U.S. policy in Yemen and think ahead about potential challenges; one of which is how the perception of tacit U.S. support for an increasingly illegitimate Saleh regime will impact any future U.S. relationship with Yemen.
AEI’s Critical Threats Project is following the situation in Yemen closely and will be providing updates on rapid developments there.
— Maseh Zarif is research manager at AEI’s Critical Threats Project.
Islam is the problem and that's why we should restrict the growth of Islam in the USA via immigration.
More muslim immigrants mean the spread of Sharia Law, means more terror incidents, means more honor killings, means more backward customs and traditions.
Restrict their immigration.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI often wonder why "jihadist forums" even still exist. Surely, these forums are used to transmit communications, coded or otherwise, among violent radicals. Is the logic that we will learn more from them by leaving them up, than we will hamper those communications by bringing them down?
If not, this would seem an ample opportunity for whatever digital espionage units we have in the intelligence service.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat's amazing is with Obama we have someone who *should* understand AQ better than anyone - when I see things like this it seems that they, too, operate from the Alinski playbook - community agitation, "community organizer".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe US should reevaluate the policy of lobbying for the retention of Saleh's relative in the CT units. The Saleh regime is the regional nexus of drug and weapons smuggling and currency counterfeiting as well as diesel smuggling. To call it a blight on the Middle East is an insult to blights.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse