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Paul Ryan’s Fiscal Framework

As Congress continues to battle over this year’s budget, House Budget chairman Paul Ryan released a blueprint today to guide Republican fiscal policies for years to come. Ryan’s budget proposes spending cuts, tax reforms, and the restructuring of entitlement programs.

His plan will dominate budget discussions for the rest of the year, and it will help frame the fiscal debate for the 2012 presidential campaign. That’s why liberal pundits are already attacking it with gusto. In the Washington Post, E. J. Dionne called Ryan’s plan “radical,” “irresponsible,” and “extreme.” But serious fiscal experts know that the real extreme plan is President Obama’s “do nothing” budget, which would result in disastrous levels of debt and crushing tax burdens on families in coming years.

As a first step toward budget sanity, Ryan proposes further cuts to discretionary spending beyond those currently being debated. However, his main focus is on transforming the so-called entitlements. He would transition Medicare from the current Soviet-style system to one based on consumer choice. Instead of a system based on payments to health-care providers, new retirees would receive a “premium support” payment to buy a private insurance plan of their own choosing. 

That reform would allow Congress to directly limit taxpayer costs, while encouraging providers and patients to reduce inefficiencies in the system. It would also improve the quality of care through more competition. Without such reforms, rising costs will likely compel Congress to start rationing care to seniors and making other cuts that would seriously distort the health-care system.

For Medicaid, food stamps, and other federal-state aid programs, the Ryan plan embraces block grants. The states would receive a fixed pot of money, but be given more flexibility on program design. That would end incentives for states to over-expand their programs with “free” federal dollars. Block granting was the successful approach of welfare reform in 1996, and it should be warmly received by today’s large group of conservative governors.

Over the first decade, Ryan’s reforms would reduce federal spending from 25 percent of gross domestic product to about 20 percent, although that level would still be higher than it was as recently as 2007. The big savings would come over the longer term. By 2040, the size of the federal government under Ryan’s plan would be half the size under a “do nothing” plan — roughly 20 percent of GDP vs. 40 percent. For young Americans, the resulting differences in tax burdens and prosperity between those alternative fiscal futures would be massive.

On taxes, Ryan would reduce rates and simplify the system. His previous plan collapsed individual income taxes to a simple structure of 10 and 25 percent, while ending most deductions and other special breaks. His new plan drops the top rate to 25 percent, but leaves most of the simplification details to the House tax-writing committee.

E. J. Dionne also attacked Ryan’s plan as “tax cuts for the rich,” but that’s nonsense. It’s easy to design a two-rate tax system that doesn’t change the current distribution of tax payments at all. I favor a system with a single flat rate, so Ryan’s plan is too “progressive” for me, but it would certainly simplify the tax code and help spur economic growth.

Ryan would cut the federal corporate-tax rate from 35 to 25 percent. That would still leave us with a higher rate than the average in Europe, but it would be a major spur to investment and job creation. To his credit, Ryan scrapped the idea from his prior plan of converting the corporate tax to a value-added tax, which would have been a money machine for the government.

In sum, Paul Ryan has proposed a fiscal reform structure that should win broad political support. Moderates can take comfort that the premium support idea for Medicare reform is endorsed by prominent Democratic economist, Alice Rivlin. Fiscal conservatives can take comfort that the Ryan plan is a step toward even larger spending and tax reforms. Block granting, for example, can be a step toward fully devolving programs such as food stamps to the states, and the Ryan tax plan can be a first step toward a flat tax.  

Political leaders keep saying that we need an “adult conversation” on federal budget reforms. Republican Ryan has started that conversation, and now it is up to Democrats to put aside their childish rants about “extremism” and offer up their own plan to avert the coming fiscal disaster.

Chris Edwards is editor of the Cato Institute’s DownsizingGovernment.org.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   10

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   04/05/11 10:13

"E. J. Dionne also attacked Ryan’s plan as 'tax cuts for the rich,' but that's nonsense."

BINGO. When you reduce the number of deductions and credits, you can lower the tax rate and still bring in a comparable amount of revenue as before (and possibly more in the case of those especially adept at gaming the current tax code). The inability of otherwise intelligent people to understand this point (or, moreover, how a flat tax can be structured to help the poor and middle class) convinces me that they are willfully ignoring it in order to preserve the current system of dispensing favors and goodies in the current code.

Also, because I have not mentioned it today: CAPTCHA DELENDA EST.

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top6
   04/05/11 10:14

FYI, I stopped reading your article after you suggested Ryan's plan was serious and would prompt serious debate, and then referred to Medicare as the "current Soviet-style system." Seriously, I stopped reading after that so I have no way of responding to the substantive points, if there were any. Just wanted to let you know.

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   04/05/11 10:22

top6: Are you really that allergic to reality?

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Ryan Aaron
   04/05/11 11:08

So, top6, any proposal that doesn't involve taking more of "Other people's money' is dead on arrival for you, eh?

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   04/05/11 11:22

top6: I notice that you list three seperate places where you stopped reading? What? One for each eye?

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 Chas
   04/05/11 11:22

from that wapo column

"Put the two parts of the Ryan design together — tax cuts for the rich, program cuts for the poor — and its radically redistributionist purposes become clear."

talk about turning things upside down, dionne has drank so much of the kool aid that he things letting people keep more of THEIR money and not giving that money to people who havent earned it is "redistributionist". we have to work hard and erase that type of mindset or else our country will become a third world power shortly.

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   04/05/11 11:22

top6: I notice that you list three seperate places where you stopped reading? What? One for each eye?

I hate the new Gotcha.

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ArielD
   04/05/11 12:00

Chas,

1. In what world do "budget crisis" and "shared sacrifice" translate to tax cuts for the rich?

2. If you eliminate benefits for the poor and middle class, that's a form of a tax hike (e.g. child tax credits).

3. Our tax code penalizes labor and subsidizes investment in stock. What's fair about that? How is that not class warfare? Why does my hard-earned salary need to subsidize Warren Buffet's portfolio?

4. Conservatives think that Paris Hilton has a greater moral claim to tax-free inheritance than I do to a tax-free salary, however much my boss would love to give me that. Why is that not class warefare?

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top6
   04/05/11 13:24

Ryan Aaron:

No, any discussion about a serious blueprint for future debate that starts with comparing Medicare, a very popular, mainstream and successful government program, to the Soviet Union, the US's bitter enemy for half a century, is dead on arrival to me.

Again, I am not making any comment on the substance of this post. I haven't read it all. I stopped at the words "Soviet-style system." (Mark W., not sure why that was unclear to you, but I guess I wasn't as clear as I should have been.)

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krazy kaju
   04/09/11 11:39

Medicare is anything but a successful government program, unless you measure success by how many votes it has garnered for politicians. The cost of Medicare is literally out of control.

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