Gallup reports that President Obama’s approval rating among blacks has fallen to an all-time low of 85 percent. His rating fell five points in the last month alone.
Although on an absolute basis Obama’s approval among blacks remains high, this number should be worrisome for the Obama 2012 presidential campaign. Approximately 2.9 million more blacks voted in 2008 than in 2004. Obama received 96 percent of that vote. Obama is likely to receive a stratospheric percentage of the black vote in 2012, but the new Gallup numbers suggest that black voter enthusiasm — and thus turnout – will be lower in 2012 than in 2008. (By the way, Obama’s approval among Hispanics has plummeted as well.)
The declining numbers could help swing pivotal states away from Obama in the next election. For example, Ohio had a 13 percent increase in black voter turnout in 2008 over 2004, a net of 66,000 more votes (conversely, Ohio’s white voters were remarkably unenthusiastic in 2008, resulting in 540,000 fewer white voters going to the polls). The increase in black voter turnout alone accounted for nearly a third of the differential between the Ohio vote totals of Obama and McCain.
The problem for the Obama campaign is that the 2012 election will not generate the enthusiasm associated with the possibility of electing the first black president.
As Obama's "policies" have done nothing for blacks, and in a rational world his approval would be closer to zero than 100 for all groups including blacks, one can only surmise that blacks are voting racially and not rationally.
But whites are the racists!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIsn't voting for someone because of their skin color equally as "racist" as voting against them for the same reason?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI mean, if I were voting for white candidates simply because they were white....
So long as the field of potential Republican challengers ranges from the implausible to the downright ridiculous some would say the problem for the Obama campaign is to publicly restrain its giddiness.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Gallup reports that President Obama’s approval rating among blacks has fallen to an all-time low of 85 percent."
That's actually pretty funny. 85 percent. Yeah, I'm sure he's sweating now.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama isn't going to have much of a problem winning OH, because Kasich is so busy angering the populace there, the Dems are going to coast to a victory. Depressing.
I have relatives in OH who are active in the State GOP and they are just shaking their heads over what they are seeing these days.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell, to be frank, Frank; it's still early. As I recall, in April 2007, Obama was considered at best to be implausible.
The only reason Trump is getting a lot of play right now is because the press loves to tease the birtherism trope to prep the populace against Republicans. But like Kathryn said, it's a sideshow.
Who will it be? who knows, but my money is on Pawlenty.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMaybe the only good thing to come out of the Obama election is, having gotten over it, the black community begins to be freed up to be independent instead of overtly practicing a kind of excused racialism in the country which is really embarrassing. Excusing blacks for it is kind of condescending. It would be great for Blacks to find their own voice and stop being so reactionary and victimized by one party.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI have no doubt that the demoncrats will once again generate fear and hysteria during the 2012 campaign. No matter who the GOP nominee is, s/he will be a racist who wants to starve poor children and yank medicine out of granny's hands.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@Douglas:
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLaugh if you like, but this is certainly a worrisome thing for Obama's re-election effort. Here are the reasons why (all verifiable facts):
1) He won several states last time that do not usually go Democrat because of very high black voter turnout. A slip in his approval ratings clearly implies that driving turnout may be harder.
2) Eighty-five percent might not sound too bad, but it represents about as low a Democratic number as anyone has seen for black support in decades. If the poll is accurate, it means that Obama's popularity is now no better than that of a generic Democrat.
3) Near unanimous black support has long been a huge tactical advantage for Democrats. Why? Because the demographic is easily identifiable, not only by sight, but by zip code and by last name analysis. This has presented a fabulous target, technically speaking, for get-out-the-vote efforts, with little or no fear that the vote being gotten out would go to the opponent.
4) If Obama is genuinely losing even a small number of supporters in his heretofore most committed demographic, what does that say of his prospects in other slices of the electorate?
5) Finally, if they are not worried, why did Obama go visit with Al Sharpton last week?
Fish: I find it amazing that every time you give advice to a Republican, that advice is on the lines of, "Be more like a Democrat".
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse“That's actually pretty funny. 85 percent. Yeah, I'm sure he's sweating now.”
@Douglas, as funny as sweating such a high approval number is, the evidence is that Obama actually is worried. There’s no other way to explain Obama’s appearance with the race baiter and Jew hater Al Sharpton this week. Obama has spent his time on the national stage distancing himself from racial politics, which is why he tossed Rev. Wright under the bus as soon as the association began to politically damage him, and now he goes out of his way to associate with Sharpton! How many of those 85% are likely voters?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseTheFish: Keep dreaming: that's what they were saying about Wisconsin, an even bluer state than Ohio. Go have a cold one with Kloppy.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@MarkW:
I didn't give advice to anyone in the post you are referring to, so I'm afraid your criticism falls rather flat.
I think that you may be annoyed that someone isn't entranced by endless amounts of shallow cheerleading and echoes instead of actual analysis. Sorry to reveal to you that everything isn't sunshine and rainbows out there; I mean, if you listen to some here, the American people have been united behind Conservative causes for all of known history and the tide that is going to sweep through the nation is ALWAYS about to come. And yet, it never materializes....
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuseas usual "the fish" is just plain wrong. I live in Ohio and the Democrat party machinery here is reeling.
The state party chairman, chris redfern, continues to make a fool of himself in public. Senate bill 5 coasted thru with a tenth of the protest we saw in WI. And look at how will that worked out for the left!
Oh and a prominent Democrat, Jimmy DiMora, was just indicted for another THIRTY CRIMINAL CHARGES. that brings the total to about sixty I think. Among them, Jimmy is charged with running a criminal enterprise out of the county offices. That's nonsense, the government in the hands of the Democrats is, in and of itself, a criminal enterprise.
I think he's up for the coveted "Traficante" award for exemplary behavior from a Democrat.
Not only that, but the census results means that the state will lose two house seats. And the Republicans are in charge of the government. How do you think that'll work out for the lefties? Hmmmm?
Oh and photo ID requirements for voting will pass which means that the return of the son of ACORN can longer pay "urban dwellers" to vote multiple times in the next election.
So dream on fish. Denial is a significant aspect of the modern liberal mindset.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@TheFish:
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWere you around last November? What is 63 House seats, chopped liver? It looks like a tide to me. It will look more like one in 2012, when Obama loses, Republicans take over the Senate, and repeal of the PPACA is first up on the legislative docket.
reheiler: Unless the Republicans get at least 60 members in the senate, the Democrats will fillibuster any attempt to repeal Obama care.
Then certain Republicans will complain that we are risking a shutdown and our legislative majority.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere's no doubt Obama will win over 90% of the black vote, but it does show that blacks are starting to focus less on his skin color, and he's polling like an average Democrat to this group.
There just isn't going to be the enthusiasm on the Left in 2012 like there was in 2008, and all the hype seems absurd now.
I expect average turnout for Obama, but unusually high turnout for the GOP in 2012.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMaybe some are listening to Rep. Allen West or Rep. Tim Scott or Presidential Candidate Herman Cain.
I hope some are reading Thomas Sowell and Walter E. Williams
I am looking forward to hearing more from Reps West and Scott.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDouglas,
"That's actually pretty funny. 85 percent. Yeah, I'm sure he's sweating now."
Obama (and you) had better start sweating: guess which voting demographic will be hit hardest by continued high gas prices? I've give you a hint: it ain't the folks in zip code 90210.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJust think...if black votes were distributed rationally, the Democrats would lose big.
In other words, a breakup of the black monolith, even 1/3 of blacks (20 percentage point shift of the black bloc) going GOP, would spell doom for the Democrats.
Another thought: given how many black votes come from fraud-vulnerable, Dem-controlled inner cities, I wonder how much of the monolithic "black vote" is fraud-produced?
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