Some in the political class maintain that Americans frustrated with the budget deal are shortsighted. The “real” battles are the debt ceiling and the FY 2012 budget.
The narrative is that Republicans couldn’t have done better on the CR because
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they only control the House;
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the media would’ve blamed them for the shutdown; and
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such blame would hamstring their political ability to get greater cuts and reforms in the FY 2012 budget.
So now, having gotten the sideshow of the CR behind them, Republicans supposedly can concentrate on securing the big cuts in FY 2012. Or so the narrative goes.
Precisely how well will that work? How has Republican bargaining leverage now changed for the better going into the next round of negotiations?
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Will Republicans now control both houses and the presidency?
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Will the media not blame the Republicans for any future shutdowns?
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How credible will any future Republican threats be now that Democrats have seen Republicans blink — particularly when they blinked when the political stakes arguably were much lower?
1) "beltway" "conventional" and "wisdom" cannot exist together in a non-humorous post
2) when the GOP did control everything, they spent money poorly, freely, and with more than one eye on pleasing the leftist, progressive, cocktail-party echochamber.
thus
3) WE must be what is different this time. hold their feet to the fire and if that doesn't work we move the fire to their tender underparts and see if that gets the point across. or we could just vote 'em out*, whatever you're comfortable with.
*they are all just replaceable parts, and need to be reminded of that fact frequently. parts is parts.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think the big issue for the leadership was the way a shutdown would have played out with voters. A shutdown is a big deal - and ultimately what we were talking about was the difference between $38 billion and $61 billion in a budget that spends over $3 trillion. To be seen as shutting down the government over what amounts to the cost of a Starbucks latte is just bad politics.
But the debt ceiling and, especially, the FY12 budget are going to involve much bigger numbers. Fighting over Medicare and Medicaid, cuts taht would take hundreds of billions off the baseline, tax reform that would drastically restructure our revenue generation - those aren't chump changes. And shutting down the government over those disagreements will play out differently.
A drastic action threatened in response to a significant and sizeable disagreement is far more justified and justifiable than a drastic action threatened over a trifle. It would be the same as the difference between a woman threatening to divorce her husband for clipping his toenails in bed and threatening to divorce her husband for gambling away all the couple's money in Vegas once a month.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGenerally I consider most politicians something to be scraped off the shoe of a used car salesman; but I don't envy their position. Even if they want to do the right thing the ignorant masses, led by the ignorant mass media, will crucify them for any attempt at "doing the right thing"
Having said that, we still need them to charge the hill and eventually some will survive to victory.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBasically, many polls show that a fairly large majority of the public is against raising the debt limit. Therefore, they are now fighting on better ground. It would be easier to shut down the government over the debt limit with the public on your side, than it would have been to shut down the government over a few riders and $20 billion.
The government shutdown is the biggest weapon available, and you don't use it in a minor fight over a CR covering 5 months.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe big problem is that the GOP should have understood what the Dems gameplan was and should have been preparing the ground of shutdown. Instead they let the media and the Dems control the message. The same thing is happening w/ the big budget fight. Our guys are idiots and aren't being proactive about pitching the arguments for cuts. The campaign should never have stopped should have just shifted to being about the principles and policies conservatives want instead of about the election.
Remember that Lindsey Graham and others basically cut a compromise in the lame duck that they didn't have to...which hurt us moving forward.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNo kidding. Come September (or even later after a a CR or two) the whining will be that it's too close to the 2012 elections to have the fight.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseShutting the government down 19 months out from an election to achieve a 1% or 2% reduction in annual spending that expires anyway six months later is just dumb.
The point of shutting the government down is to shake voters by the shoulders and get more of them to see the seriousness of the situation. If you're going to get people's attention like this, you'd better be demanding real change, not drops in the bucket. If you're not demanding real change, then you lose all credibility with your government shut-down. And since the Dems will never agree to real change anyway, better to do it closer to the election so that the confrontation will have more of a lasting impression on voters.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn 2010 I did not vote for a single Republican (or Democrat, for that matter) for any office at any level. Why should I? 99% of them are cowards and Democrat wannabes anyway. Their total cave-in on the CR is yet more proof. The GOP is not called the Stupid Party for nothing!
A third party, please. Now. Right now. No more lefty Demopublicans and Republicrats. Anyone who holds their nose and votes for Republicans in 2012 deserves what they get - more lies and bankrupt leftist spending policies.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"they only control the House"
Actually, they say "we're only 1/2 of 1/3 of the gubmint," even though
a) The judiciary doesn't get a vote in budget matters
b) All budgetary bills must originate in the House
Whatta buncha maroons. Whatta buncha ignoranimuses.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe've been here before, don't forget---the GOP controlled everything during a big slug of the Bush II years. They did nothing but jack up spending and betray conservatives.
Sorry, Boehner et al have ZERO credibility.
Cut NOW. Or go home.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI have a lot of sympathy for Peter's argument, but I agree with others that cleaning up the last congress' mess isn't worth the political capital.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt seems to me that making the debt limit a real limit by not raising it is a more effective stick than shutting down the government. We can pay our debt obligations, but would have to cut spending immediately on many other things. It would put everybody on the spot as to priorities. The Republicans could hammer Obama and the Democrats on their massive spending increases and, yes, even throw Bush under the bus, too.
A few observations:
1) Peter's right about the 2012 budget in that it will be a similar scenario, politically, to the current one. The main difference will be that the GOP will have more time to get it to the President, force vetos, pressure Democrats facing a hostile electorate, before a shutdown crisis ensues - but the balance of power is the same. However, the implied prescription - that we might as well fight it out now - is backwards. We need to push enough now to set the stage for the 2012 elections. We need control of the Senate and WH. Then you can have all the leadership fights you want, and in the meantime, the Tea Party can recruit conservative candidates to challenge in the primaries.
2) Those who argue that conservatives or Tea Partiers should form a third party are not the allies of budget reform. Unless they can provide a serious, convincing electoral path to victory (and control of the legislature) they are just engaging in irresponsible petulance. Make the GOP more conservative, yes. Third-party in this environment? Crazy talk.
3) And the GOP is currently more conservative than it was. Not all the "Tea Party" republicans opposed the deal. People enjoy pounding on the heads of the leadership, but does anyone really think Boehner is a RINO? Really? He got a bad deal. He made a mistake. If everyone who doesn't get everything you want is a RINO, pretty soon, you're going to be in a room, by yourself, muttering about how great it is that you can finally get something done. Only, the only thing you'll have the votes to do is to rearrange your office furniture.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse>"The judiciary doesn't get a vote in budget matters"
If only it were so!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs Breaker of Horses noted, the Stupid Party under Dubya were Big Government Compassion Fascists who squandered what little remained of the Newt Revolution and setting up a situation where liberals were/are able to sneer, "Bill Clinton left a surplus* and Dubya blew it on war and tax cuts for the rich. Also, funny how you teabaggers are suddenly concerned about spending not that a proud Nubian brother is in the White House." Yeah, it's a lies and selective character assassination, but the Stupids under the non-leadership of Cryin' John Fakenbake have done NOTHING to counter it.
What's appalling about the Stupid's utter collapse since being returned to partial power is that they've gone from being the so-called "Party of No" that remained futilely unified against the Obama/Reid/Pelosi/Marx/Alinksy socialist juggernaut to spineless, mewling, Vichy collaborators as they seek to crush the very freshmen and Tea Partiers that gave Cryin' John the gavel. It should be noted that Newt offered a Contract while Cryin' John merely spoke a Pledge. The difference is that you can't sue for breach of pledge and that semantic distinction bespeaks the unseriousness of these jokers.
The Contract with America was followed through on as far as voting on its items. What's happened with the Pledge? Demurrals, backtracks, excuses, and failure. From the moment they won decisively in November, they have capitulated to every demand of the Democrats. The lame duck was filled with bad treaties and bad tax deals. It was as if the Stupids wanted to side up with Obama and the Dems to stave off the Tea Party rubes. Then the chairmanships went mostly to old dog spendthrifts indicating that, as many suspected, the problem for the Stupids wasn't that there was spending going on, but that they didn't get to direct it to their cronies.
It's maddening to see how the Stupids can't seem to understand the actual meaning of what happens to them electorally. They believe they lost in 2006 and 2008 because they we're moderate enough and Dem Lite enough for the grasping hands in the nation. While they almost appeared to get that they'd lost their way from the true path and conservative principles during the Porkulus and ObamaCare battles, they were so outnumbered it didn't matter. So the voters took them at their word that they'd learn their lesson and we looking to redeem themselves and here we are now, betrayed by the only forces available to stop the nation-destroying agenda of the Obama Regime and fellow travelers.
As the brilliant Mark Steyn aptly said a month ago, "“I think John Boehner has been an incredible disappointment. I think John Boehner has basically climbed into the Bob Dole suit, and I think they misunderstand the lessons of the 2010 election, which is that the tea party chose to work within the diseased husk of the Republican Party it loathes. And it still hasn’t forgiven for 2006 and 2008. So for the Republicans to demonstrate that ‘hey, we’re back to 2006 again,’ except on Obama-level spending, is not a good idea.
We need Republicans to at least take the lead in broadening public discourse. This country is broke. It’s the brokest country in the history of the planet. And the idea of arguing over itsy-bitsy, half a billion here and half a billion there, and continuing resolutions staggering forward every ten days, is preposterous. It’s inadequate to the task. It’s inadequate for the challenge facing America”
The Stupids under Cryin' John have offered nothing but excuses for their failure and lack of will. They insult the intelligence of their constituents by whining about how hard they have it without the Senate and White House and it reeks of not wanting to get sweaty if victory is unlikely. The Detroit Lions show more stones than the Stupid Party because at least they make an attempt to not lose before starting the "Wait until NEXT year!" happy talk.
Let's see how the Stupids have done:
• Lame duck session - "We can't do anything because it's still the Dem's show. Next month, we'll get 'em."
• Then the new Congress starts and a lunatic shoots up Tuscon and while the media blames them for the tragedy, they suspend operations for a week. This is understandable, but it halted any momentum they may have had left after the lame duck debacles.
• The in CR after CR after downward revision until ultimate failure, they couldn't find it possible to cut ANYTHING in a substantive way. They couldn't defund the CPB after a citizen catches NPR's management acting up. They couldn't defund taxpayer-funded baby slaughter at Planned Parenthood after another citizen catches them collaborating with supposed human traffickers. It was low-hanging fruit that the public wanted picked and they couldn't do it. Meanwhile the Dems are going to the wall in order to protect the murder of babies on the taxpayers' dime. They are willing to stand up for their death-loving ideology. What does the Stupid Party believe in that they're willing to fight for?
• After they lied that they understood why they lost; lied that they want to prove themselves reformed; lied that they would force the issues and do the will of the People who sent them; we're supposed to believe that the next fights, the hard ones with real money at stake and the future of the Republic hanging in the balance, that THEN they will stand up to the Dems. Uh, right. That's like a morbidly obese person promising to start dieting and exercising while they're still at the table choking down another wafer-thin mint.
* Nevermind that it was the Newt Congress's surplus. The Stupid Party can't even be bothered to set that record straight.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusewhat's wrong with just doing the right thing, keeping the promises and then if voted out next year - moving on with their lives in private sector? We need people in Congress who would be ok with being there for one term only. Otherwise they stop representing us and start cutting deals worrying about MSM coverage instead of keeping faith with voters who already voted for them...
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuseso nothing will be different ???
Really ? Gee, I thought we were going to have a Debt Ceiling battle coming up soon ? Did that just go away ?
Nope ... In fact the Debt Ceiling fight will be where the tide can continue to shift in the GOP's favor.
If the GOP agrees to raising the ceiling by 2 trillion, guess waht ? next summer we'll be having another Debt Ceiling debate ... and during the 2012 budget battle the GOP will be able to reasonably argue that the 2012 deficit must be low enough to stay under the new ceiling ... thats public opinion leverage that they don't have now ...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJeffB ...
Custer tried that and it didn't work out so well ...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think what Kirsanow has left out of his analysis is the cumulative effect that political controversy has on moderate voters.Your average, disengaged American does not analyze politics according to a fully-developed ideological perspective; rather, politics is a miasma of soundbites and headlines, always trending in one way or another but never resolving into a clear result. I personally wouldn't have minded if the Republicans had shut down the government over the 2011 budget, but I read the Corner everyday. For someone who only follows politics passively, hearing the GOP called "obtructionists" in April...and then May..and then June begins to have a psychic effect.
Consider George W. Bush, for example. In 8 years, Bush didn't push one initiative that didn't enjoy 50% support or more. But as the years dragged on, people got tired of all the ugly news and began to believe that the Democratic arguments must be right. The same will happen to the Republican House if it undertakes the spectacle throwing down the gauntlet one too many times.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI love the brie-eating surrender monkeys around here: "Make the GOP more conservative by continuing to elect RINOs and giving them leadership positions." Yeah. That's the ticket.
Republicans have taken conservatives completely for granted since Reagan left office. What have we gotten in return for party loyalty? Bush the Elder, who was no conservative. Bob Dole, ditto. Dubya, ditto, who presided over the greatest expansion of the federal government until Barack Obama came along. John McCain, who couldn't beat an empty suit with Mao's Red Book in his pocket. Newt Gingrich sitting on a park bench arguing FOR the global warming hoax even then discredited. John Boehner crying about the triumph of spending even more money, although somewhat less than Obama wants to spend.
It is PATHETIC.
The difference between Democrats and Republicans is that
Democrats invariably seek maximum socialism. They don't always get it, but they always seek it and risk seats to do so. The Republicans NEVER seek maximum liberty---they seek the bare minimum that will keep conservatives from jumping ship at any point in time.
We're done. It's Tea Party time!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMwalimu Daudi: "A third party, please. Now. Right now."
Third parties already exist. And fourth and fifth and sixth parties. But far too many people are concerned about how other people are voting to actually take the plunge and vote for them.
Voting for the Libertarian or Conservative party or what have you might indeed split the vote and lead to a few more Democratic administrations. But since Republicans reliably squander every opportunity they are given to reverse, or even slow, America's slide towards oblivion, what exactly is the point of voting for them?
Vote for a party that actually represents your principles. Isn't that better than handing another mandate to a deficit ballooning, civil liberties destroying Republican?
At least then you'll be able to sleep well at night.
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