A new McClatchy poll brings some bad news for Republicans in light of the House’s vote to adopt Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R., Wis.) budget proposal last week, which includes politically risky reforms to Medicare. According to the poll of registered voters, 80 percent oppose cutting Medicare and Medicaid to reduce the deficit, including 68 percent of self-identified conservatives and 70 percent of Tea Party supporters.
Granted, respondents aren’t asked to decide whether they would rather “save Medicare by reforming it for future retirees” (per the Ryan plan) or “pretend like everything’s fine even though Medicare is going bankrupt in nine years” (the ‘reelect Obama in 2012′ plan). But these results, which are consistent with those of similar polls, further underscore the momentous educational challenge facing Republicans as they attempt to sell Ryan’s plan to skeptical voters and stem the onslaught of Democratic demagoguery, e.g., this ridiculous ad from the DCCC:
In regard to their position on taxes, Republicans fare slightly better. According to the same McClatchy poll, 64 percent support reducing the deficit by increasing taxes on incomes over $250,000 — that includes 45 percent of conservatives and Tea Party supporters. However, Republicans ought to feel more confident in their ability to win this debate, given that they recently did so in securing the across-the-board tax-rate extension during last year’s lame-duck session, but also because people’s opinions appear to change depending on how the question is framed. For instance, a recent Gallup poll asked: “Do you think our government should or should not redistribute wealth by heavy taxes on the rich?” Only 47 percent of respondents said government “should,” versus 49 percent who said the government “should not.”
How pathetic is it that 47 percent polled think the government SHOULD redistribute wealth?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm trying to place myself in the shoes of someone who doesn't follow these issues on a day-to-day basis, who was asked to answer the question on Medicare and Medicaid. If you say you're going to cut benefits to close the deficit, I think the minds of most people, particularly those who are seniors, shift to images of elderly people seeing their benefits chopped. Secondarily, they might be thinking that they've paid into Medicare and Medicaid, "and I darn sure better get some of it back."
I don't think the first image people have is that of the 25-year-old who is starting their career, would be subject to any new reforms and would have 40 years to prepare for it. With this, you still have the issue of people wanting back what they paid in through benefits, but the image of the 25-year-old is more advantageous for us than that of the 85-year-old. That's the image shift that has to occur. If that happens, I don't think this is as massive a PR mountain as one might think.
As for the tax question, unfortunately, I don't think "increasing taxes on incomes over $250,000" and "our government... should not redistribute wealth by heavy taxes on the rich" are mutually exclusive in the minds of most people. It just depends on how you far you go with the former. To that end, I don't think our representatives emphasize the impact this has on small businesses nearly enough.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGiving up those entitlements is going to be like giving up drugs.
America has got a serious addiction and getting clean is going to be a painful struggle.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm afraid a majority of the country is not going to accept the need for fundamental reform -- meaning, giving up some of the government goodies they've been promised -- until the fiscal crisis comes to a head in a way that significantly and tangibly affects their lives. All the charts in the world showing unsustainable trend lines are nothing to the average voter. It's going to take bouncing government checks or hyperinflation or something equally cataclysmic. Unfortunately, by the time the masses realize the problem, it will be much harder to fix.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThese two poll numbers are why the declinists on NR are right. We are headed off a cliff. Wave to the photographer on the way down.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseExtremely disappointing.
I'm becoming more convinced it won't be the American people finally "getting it" that will prompt us to solve this problem on our terms. It will be the international bond markets insisting to solve it on THEIRS!
The mighty U.S., just a few years from now, Treasury yields gaped open about 500 bps above where they are now, reduced to pathetic, Greece-like mobs of geezers and freeloaders rallying to protest their not getting non-existent money! What a sad end for the greatest civilization on earth.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseStop worrying about the polls. The math eventually catches up with the Democrats. You can demagogue all you want, the credit markets look at the situation soberly. Either you get on the path to fiscal sanity by cutting spending and reforming entitlements or the markets will do it automatically.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe GOP is going to have to accept the fact these polls will never look good, because of the way they are conducted. An honest poll would give the respondent a choice between mild reforms and a Mad Max style future where the living envy the dead.
The GOP needs to start thumping on the Mad Max theme. The game here is to follow the Thatcher method. Give the voters two choices, mild reform from the GOP or end of days collapse under Obama. Really scare the bleep out of people.
But, they're too stupid to do that.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHonestly, our only hope as a nation is that 2012 becomes the year of Truth Telling.
People need to start speaking the truth about our debt and entitlements.
People need to start speaking the truth about Islam.
People need to start speaking the truth about immigration.
People need to start speaking the truth about the disaster that is black culture and the increasing dysfunction of lower class white culture.
There are people who have been speaking the truth for a long time, but they are constantly marginalized. Their voices have to become mainstream or we are most likely doomed to a failed civilization.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIs anyone talking about cuts to Medicare and Medicaid? It's about stopping the GROWTH of the programs. I know that's how Ryan's bill will be presented by the left, but if the starting point is "slowing the anticipated rate of growth is a cut" then we've already lost. However, I don't think the public is so far gone as to automatically buy into that mess.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's McClatchy, the creators of stuff like "Violence falls in Iraq; gravediggers suffer." I wouldn't put much (any whatsoever) stock in anything they come up with.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse>>I'm becoming more convinced it won't be the American people finally "getting it" that will prompt us to solve this problem on our terms.
The American people aren't who they once were.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"How pathetic is it that 47 percent polled think the government SHOULD redistribute wealth?"
The left wing media, in particular MSDNC, are an inch away from declaring that all wealth is theft. It will happen - it's only a matter of time. The logical successor to that position is expropriation – all for the ‘common good’.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"... 68 percent of self-identified conservatives and 70 percent of Tea Party supporters ... "
I don't buy that for a second! NOT ONE SECOND!
The vast majority of tea party members favor status quo on entitlements!
To quote Bill Cosby pretending to be Noah, "RIGHT!"
As for the tax issue, I've seen polling that, when the question is asked correctly, "do you prefer cutting taxes or spending cuts", the answer is overwhelmingly spending cuts.
No one is proposing to simply raise taxes on the "rich", and move on. But, in any event, those #s among "self-identified conservatives" are cooked also.
Lastly, any poll which is of registered voters - half of whom don't vote - is worthless. Half the respondents don't participate in the process.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell! A poll says cutting medicare and medicaid is unpopular. Stop everything we stand for! We must thus double spending and pretend everything is grand!
Does anyone think Reagan worried incessentaly about polling? Was Lincoln taking polls about the popularity of the Civil War? Leaders lead people to do things they wouldn't ordinarily do - like accepting that Medicare/Medicaid can't go on forever as currently constituted.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePolls don't mean squat without information and perspective. For instance, Paul Krugman cited some polls that large majorities support higher, not lower, taxes on the wealthy. But what does that mean? If you polled a party of 12 at the restaurant, 11 of them would prefer that someone else pay for their portion of the bill. Is that really news?
In other news, polls suggest that 99% of kids at the ice cream shop think ice cream should be free. Is this type of poll really supposed to inform the judgement of real adults who actually know the situation?
Reasonable people can debate whether there should be new taxes, or tax reform. But reasonable people cannot dispute that our entitlements in this country are completely out of whack and as unsustainable as the rest of our spending habits. That the president is getting away with it is a further indictment on our mainstream press.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt is amazing that nearly all House Republicans took the leap. Did they not think that SS and Medi are still third rails? The bid to privatize SS right after Bush's re-election basically caused him to expend what little political capital he had, and thus become a lame duck with 3 years left. If there was anything that could have lost the House for the GOP in 2012 it was this.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis shouldn't be that shocking considering the GOP JUST campaigned against cuts to Medicare last year!!!!
So it appears the Tea Party neither wants to raise taxes NOR cut entitlements, but they are the ones who are supposedly so fiscally serious.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Zman is absolutely right! The debate needs to be framed around fix it now or it's "night of the living dead" time. I'm tired of the Republicans droning on merely about cutting taxes and reforming entitlements without clearly pointing out the consequences of not doing so. The brain dead populace needs to know that the system is going to collape, and soon, unless reasonable steps are taken now to alter the current course, and that they will have no checks coming in from anyone if that happens. I am shocked the Democrats seem completely willing to drive our country off a fiscal cliff simply for the sake of power--it seems at least some of their constituents should realize the consequences. Are they so hate-filled they are going to let that happen?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe 45 percent of Tea Party supporters in favor of decreasing the deficit should remind the GOP that the Tea Party is fundamentally a populist movement, and that it should not be taken for granted that Tea Parties share a conservative ideology. The Tea Party largely represents populist anger at "elites," who use their money and influence to manipulate politics. The movement's originating spark was frustration with government bailouts of failing businesses, bailouts that were originated by George W. Bush and continued by Barack Obama. The Republican Party interpreted this message to mean that people were fed up with government intervention in general, and not angry about the perception that wealthy Wall Street people got saved while normal people had to suffer. And while the GOP has successfully steered this anger so far, it should be remembered that Democrats do not have a monopoly on elitism. The Republican Party has its fair share of wealthy donors and right-leaning lobbyists who throw their weight around, not always in ways that benefit the little guy. And the same anger at bailouts of billion dollar investment banks could also be turned towards wealthy people who continued to largely do well as the economy tanked.
The Republican party seems to have convinced itself that the Tea Party, a group of largely lower and middle class voters, will inevitably be supportive of giving Americans making more than $250,000 a year a significant tax cut, while cutting programs that largely help poorer people. That's not necessarilly the natural state of the world.
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