A USA Today/Gallup poll shows Americans evenly divided in their opinions over what they think is the better deficit-reduction proposal — Paul Ryan’s 2012 budget or President Obama’s “plan.” However, a closer look reveals a rather promising outlook for Republicans at this point in the debate.
|
|
GOP/Ryan plan |
Democratic/Obama plan |
No opinion |
|
Adults |
43 % |
44 % |
14 % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Ages 18-29 |
30 % |
53 % |
16 % |
|
Ages 30-49 |
45 % |
39 % |
16 % |
|
Ages 50-64 |
47 % |
41 % |
12 % |
|
Age 65 + |
48 % |
42 % |
10 % |
I’m hardly surprised but nonetheless ashamed that my age group is the only one that prefers the Obama “plan” to the Ryan plan (especially as we clearly have the most to lose from any half-hearted attempt to address our long-term fiscal problems). But the results in those older age brackets are pretty stunning — I actually had to double check to make sure they were correct. Almost 50 percent of seniors prefer the Ryan plan, as do a plurality of respondents between ages 30 and 64. And it goes without saying who is more likely to vote on Election Day. Plus, the poll was conducted between April 20–23, following weeks of Democratic rants about the GOP wanting to “end Medicare.”
Independents were split down the middle, with 41 percent preferring Ryan’s plan, 42 percent favoring the Obama “plan,” and 17 percent having no opinion.
The polls also found that a plurality of respondents think Republicans “would do a better job of dealing with . . . the federal budget”:
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|
Republicans in Congress |
Democrats in Congress |
No difference/No opinion |
|
National adults |
48 % |
36 % |
15 % |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Republicans |
86 % |
5 % |
9 % |
|
Independents |
47 % |
30 % |
23 % |
|
Democrats |
14 % |
73 % |
13 % |
Looks like Democrats don’t even trust themselves all that much, either.
It’s just one poll, but for what it’s worth, it’s good news for Republicans, and further evidence that Americans are beginning to come to terms with the reality of our fiscal problems, a reality that only one party has made a serious effort to confront. Paul Ryan has done a superb job playing the ’Paul Revere of Fiscal Problems,’ and it seems that the American public is listening.
Full results here.
Sorry, but the results you display are meaningless. They prove only that people are not connecting the Medicare, medicaid and social security restructurings to the "budget deficit reduction" abstraction. The meaningful figures are the ones you don't cite: Over TWO THIRDS are worried that the Republican plan would cut Medicare too much, cut Social Security too much, take away too much from the poor and disadvantaged, and protect the rich at the expense of everyone else.
These match the numbers in Rasmussen and in every other poll on these issues. And once the campaign starts, we won't be able to talk about "the deficit" without talking about actual cuts in very specific popular programs.
We need not to con ourselves here. This is a very heavy lift, and if we talk to each other too much and delude ourselves about popular support, we are going to get creamed. I remember 2005, when every scrap of positive data on the Bush Social Security reform was clung to until the bitter end. Most voters aren't us. they hate politics and they hate all the game playing and they are pouring money into their gas tanks and food orders sullenly. They are not paying attention to any of this right now--they looked up, they heard something about a plan to cut Medicare, they said to themselves, that won't pass, and they went back to living their lives. The pushback will come when they start paying attention.
24. Are you worried or not worried that the Republican plan for reducing the federal budget deficit in the long-term would-- [RANDOM ORDER]?
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse2011 Apr 20-23
(sorted by “worried”)
Worried
Not worried
No opinion
Cut Medicare too much
66
31
3
Cut Social Security too much
65
33
2
Take away needed protections for the poor and disadvantaged
64
34
2
Protect the rich at the expense of everyone else
64
35
2
No wonder Obama wanted to change the subject today. This is a big deal. The Democrats have all but called Paul Ryan the anti-Christ for his budget plan. Ryan did not give a televised, nationwide address (although he had to sit through a pretty obnoxious one), and he has not received fawning coverage from a compliant media.
Now, if we can get Trump to start talking about Obama's "NON PLAN, PLAN" (including sending private investigators to Washington D.C. to see if they can find a copy of this alleged, revised 2012 Obama Budget Request) instead of college grades...... And, to talk about what a ridiculous joke the President's non-plan, plan is. And, to talk about Obamacare... Heck, maybe Trump can get Obama to sign Obamacare repeal....
I don't care for Trump, but at least you can point to a bunch of his actions producting tangible results. More than I can say for Obama and pretty much anything he has done before or since his immaculation.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo the geezers have taken a shine to that young whippersnapper Ryan, huh?
Well, if seniors in fact like and don't hate the Ryan plan, that's a significant point in favor of his running for the presidency.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFirst, you have to realize that those who have an expensive illness won't be cared for under either plan. So the difference between the Ryan plan and the Obama plan is whether you decide to die by not purchasing expensive care or whether a panel decides it is time for you to die.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYoung people are still used to having their medical care decided for them. Parents decide whether you go to the doc and, if so, which one. As an adult you decide for yourself.
Everytime I think about the generation we are trying to save, I remember that they want what Obama has to offer and then I don't feel so bad anymore - except my kid and grandkid didn't vote for Obama - they were for Romney, then McCain. I expect that fewer will die early under Ryan's plan but, when they die, they will have spent what could otherwise be investment on medical care.
100% of everyone who ever lived has died. We have seen the wealthiest of Americans struck down in the prime of their lives, and we have seen the poorest among us live to 110. This debate is not about extending people lives as long as scientifically possible which is inhumane on many levels. It is about the dignity of human life. One puts that decision in the hands of 15 unelected technocrats who don't give a rat's patootie about you and me, and who would sooner pull the plug or warehouse old people than help them. The other puts the decision in the hands of individuals and families...who may or may not give a rat's patootie about you and me...but at least granny is holding the cash and can shop for herself.
If we truly care about people, we will deregulate the healthcare market so that the vast majority of routine treatment prices fall like $17,000 flat-panel plasma TVs since 1998. In doing so we preserve funds for more expensive treatments that individuals can purchase. The current system makes healthcare 1000x more expensive than it should be.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs others have noted before me, young adults who don't have much life experience, don't support themselves and don't pay taxes have a much different view of what duties the government has to the American people and how much life support it can reasonably afford to provide. As these poll numbers indicate, the older folks get, the more they move away from their youthful pie-in-the-sky, I-want-it-all mentality and move toward the reality that when there is a limited amount of money to spend, we have to spend it wisely.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFran - actually that is incorrect. In the Obama plan it will depend on when you actually get sick - so if you are only 65 when you get seriously ill you might have a chance, but if you are 75 you are probably toast, unless you are a friend of the government in which case there will be a special door you can enter that no one else may use.
Under Ryan's plan it will cover what it does today - but since over time you will have to pay for more of the little stuff - or more if you are wealthy - the big stuff will still be covered - at least a little bit like real insurance.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseChris pro makes some good points - and provides some paths for combatting the dems talking points. Saying Medicare is going bankrupt in a decade unless we do something is good. Reinforcing that current seniors and those within 10 years will still get the good deal - remind them that nothing has been offered on SS, that the President is required by law to provide a response to its current shortfall but has failed to comply with the law and we would be interested to see what he proposes.
Oh - and pound home that the president has no plan - he has offered some vague outlines - there is no plan.
Always best to go with the bad news well in front of the next election.The 2013 budget will also be fought with us on offense. Good.
Our advantage - no one trusts Obama on the budget - he has lost independents, and is losing the anti-war left over Libya. The economy unfortunately is not really doing all that well - and gas is over $4. His approval rating is very shaky and probably just waiting to flip under 40. Learn Rep Ryan's talking points and keep repeating.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think this would be cause to worry actually. The majority of the support for Ryan is where you would expect for a Republican in the older age groups. The problem is that these same people reacted poorly to Bush's privatization plans and will likely react the same to Ryan's voucher plans. This is going to be a real uphill battle for Republicans.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@hokkoda: "100% of everyone who ever lived has died."
Unless I'm very much mistaken - and I bet I'm not - I am still breathing. So there's something wrong with your statistics.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusecm,
I actually find these events quite promising. Obviously, this debate is far from a forgone conclusion. But it appears that the Republicans are going to get a fair hearing. The old demagogic tricks of the Left don't seem to be as effective as they have been in the past. The Republicans can win this debate, if they sharpen their arguments.
Taking a lesson from one of the videos of a Ryan town hall at which he was booed, the Repubs shouldn't try to tell their constituents that they are wrong in their assertions, rather they should try to turn the point to show them how the Ryan plan can work. For example, when Ryan contradicted an audience member by indicating that "we do tax at the top," he could have simply produced a chart that demonstrated that increasing taxes at the top will not close the shortfall.
In this fashion, he isn't attacking the audience member directly. Instead he does address the fundamental issue, and indirectly provides evidence of how the top brackets are already taxed. It's a conciliatory, less contentious approach. I toink that it was Pawlenty that said that it isn't enough t be right, we also need to be liked...
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