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The bin Laden Bump

A recurring question I’m getting today is whether Osama’s demise equals Obama’s political coup. Duh. Of course the president will get a bump in the polls, and he will deserve it. It will also be very short-lived.

In terms of a presidential election cycle, bin Laden has been killed at a time roughly similar to the point in the ’92 cycle when President George H.W. Bush won the Gulf War. (I realize there are a couple of months’ difference, but that’s immaterial.) The victory gave Bush approval ratings that brushed 90 percent — i.e., significantly higher than President Obama’s are today. Just as now, it was unclear which member of the opposition party would run against Bush (unlike the case with Obama, Bush’s sky-rocketing polls actually convinced big-name Dems not to make the race). Bush seemed like a shoo-in — which Obama does not. But the election turned out to be about the economy . . . which was a dream economy compared to the one we’re in.

President Obama deserves kudos for the vigor with which he has attacked al Qaeda leaders and cells in Pakistan. As I argued during the campaign, his position on the need to do this was far better than that of Sen. McCain — who regarded Pakistan as a valuable ally and portrayed Obama as reckless for threatening to conduct attacks there. Obama is also to be applauded for authorizing yesterday’s daring mission. President Carter’s failed mission to rescue the hostages in Iran is testament to how much can go wrong and how politically devastating it can be when such a mission fails. And all you need to do is read the pertinent section of the 9/11 Commission report about President Clinton’s failure to give clear authorization to kill bin Laden when we had several chances to do so in 1998–99 — i.e., before bin Laden bombed the Cole bombing and ordered 9/11. That it would have been irresponsible to pass up this latest chance to rid the world of this menace does not mean acting responsibly was without risk for Obama. We should commend him for pulling the trigger.

Still, the operation cannot but underscore the mind-bending inconsistencies in Obama’s counterterrorism — gold-plated due process for some 9/11 terrorists but assassination for others; the haste to close Gitmo even as it continues to serve valuable security purposes; the paralysis of interrogation policies that (as Shannen, Steve, and others point out) were key to obtaining intelligence that not only thwarts attacks but enabled us to find bin Laden; the crackdown against al Qaeda while engaging the Muslim Brotherhood despite its sustenance of Hamas; the avowed commitment to fight terrorism while demonstrating indifference to the promotion of terrorism by Iran, Syria, and other rogue regimes; rhetorically lashing out at the Taliban (as Obama did in yesterday’s speech) while seeking a negotiated settlement with the Taliban; and so on.

Obama rarely talks about the war — indeed, he resists referring to war as “war.” This, coupled with his paradoxical approach to it, will limit the political benefit he derives from positive developments in the war, including one as extremely positive as taking out bin Laden. Meanwhile, the urgency of debt, unemployment, and climbing consumer prices will very quickly divert the public’s attention from bin Laden. The 2012 election will probably not be any more influenced by yesterday’s successful operation than the 1992 election was by victory in the Gulf War.

We ought to take this very good news for what it is — very good news. Despite the irritating self-absorption of last night’s speech that Mark aptly describes, we should praise the president and, especially, our peerless military forces for a job well done. And we should forget about the politics of this. Whatever bump Obama gets will be about as enduring as tomorrow’s trip to the station to fill ’er up with $5/gallon gas. 

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   24

EXPAND  

   05/02/11 12:06

"It will also be very short-lived."

Indeed. The Obamai and their Astrotufers showing up at the White House will not drown out reality.

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   05/02/11 12:11

"Still, the operation cannot but underscore the mind-bending inconsistencies in Obama’s counterterrorism.."

That nails it. It is hard to gain too much cred for the kill when there is such great reluctance to be in the battle on nearly every other front.

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   05/02/11 12:14

I do not mind that the Administration gets some credit for doing the right thing. They did the right thing here.

Most thanks to those who really did this:

The team who got Osama.

Thank you.

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   05/02/11 12:15

" we should praise the president and, especially, our peerless military forces for a job well done. And we should forget about the politics of this."

Amen. Let's just leave it at that.

And now, let's get back to our regularly scheduled programming -- the US's economy is in no better shape than it was last Friday, our mideast policy is still a hopeless muddle, and the over-reaching government expansionist policies of this administration still need to be thwarted.

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   05/02/11 12:22

Israeli newspapers report that Hamas leader Haniyeh said, "We condemn the assassination and the killing of an Arab holy warrior."

So how about we adopt a regard for the truth of the groups we are playing tootsie with in the Arab world and develop a cohesive foreign policy that makes sense to the real war on terror?

We may not be facing the truth, but the Islamist factions certainly are - even if they are putting their deceptive spin on our actions. It was reported that Hamas leader added:

"We regard this as a continuation of the American policy based on oppression and the shedding of Muslim and Arab blood."

We need an end to the current schizophrenic approach to Islamist terrorism and foreign policy.

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JR25
   05/02/11 12:25

"Still, the operation cannot but underscore the mind-bending inconsistencies in Obama’s counterterrorism — gold-plated due process for some 9/11 terrorists but assassination for others . . ."

Wouldn't you say the same thing about the inconsistencies of going to war with Iraq but not with Iran or North Korean on the war on terror? If the idea of "different problems need to be handled different ways" applies to which countries we go to war with, why not with how we handle high target terrorists?

Obama deserves his due today. There will be plenty of time to go after him on his wreckless economic policies and so forth, especially once the euphoria of killing bin Laden goes down in a few weeks, but criticising him for petty reasons (like how he delivered the news of Osama's death . . . come on) makes his critics look weak and small.

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   05/02/11 12:28

President Obama deservedly will get a bump in approval rating in the polls. No doubt about it! But the pundits, mostly media lefties, who are now calling his re-election all but a done deal, are living in fantasy land. As long as gas price climbs to and remains at ~$5/gallon, and grocery prices continues to shoot up, with high unemployment, the President's bump in the poll will be short-lived, and his chance of re-election dims considerably.

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 RobL
   05/02/11 12:32

Andrew,

You are right that president Obama’s message and actions are mixed when it comes to prosecuting the War on Terror (if its still called that).

But the media’s portrayal of President Obama’s words and deeds is consistently laudatory. It will be hard for the ‘average’ American (the vast majority who are not political junkies) to discern the ambiguities you mention. For comparison remember the media’s portrayal of President Bush’s ‘Mission Accomplished’ speech.

Unless there is a significant worsening of the economy, this event is likely to create sustained momentum for an Obama re-election.

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   05/02/11 12:45

This was Bush's victory. When everyone around him was deriding his role as CINC he persevered and carried on, Obama is like the second string quarterback taking a kneel down after a one sided Super Bowl blowout. No one says the 2nd stringer "won" the Super Bowl because he was on the field at the time the clock ran out.

History will judge this the same way.

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Interested Observer
   05/02/11 12:47

And Mr. McCarthy's measured praise here does nothing to erase the incredibly stupid things he's said about the President. He said that Obama and the left 'is allied with our Islamist enemy in a grand jihad against America.' This may have sold a few books, butthis pretty much puts the lie to that statement, which if said by someone on the left would have been considered nearly treasonous.

So McCarthy is still a laughingstock to all reasonable minds left and right, regardless of this post, and he continues to tarnish the reputation of the National Review as a thinking person's publication.

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sonya
   05/02/11 12:49

Why didn't they try to get him alive? He probably still had a lot of intelligence info.

The fact that Obama was so concerned with Osama being buried according to Islamic rules is also outrageous.

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   05/02/11 12:52

This more than just a bump in the polls, as I think you allow. Last night, greedily taking credit for the execution of America's public enemy number one, President Obama looked convincingly presidential. He was collected, forceful, and calm. Admit it, he was dang good.

I see in the defensiveness and sniping of some of the conservative commentariat a tacit admission of such.

This win will do nothing for the left, but it will reclaim a sizable number of centrist and center-right whites.

The inconsistencies you cite will be recalled by astute politicos, but not by the general public.

If economic numbers can be construed to show improvement, the last 4-5 days of President Obama's term--which include the discomfiture of the Donald--have been very good indeed for him and may signal a turning point in his long decline.

The way for the right to counter this is to unhesitatingly give President Obama his dues, wait a few weeks, and then get back to pounding on the issues of our moribund economy and the impending entitlement insolvency.

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   05/02/11 12:57

If McCain were president, there would be no talk of re-election guarantee. Instead, the media would be quickly wondering: can McCain use this event to sell the American people that he deserves a second term despite a very troubled economy and numerous missteps in foreign policy?

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rockrivercon
   05/02/11 13:02

It's the equivalent of giving George HW Bush credit for bringing down the Berlin Wall.

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   05/02/11 14:01

Obama will get a bump for this and he deserves it. This was a nearly flawless mission and he was the one who ordered in the SEALs. He could have ordered a drone strike and then went in and picked up the pieces. Instead we walked up face-to-face and put a bullet in OBL's eye. It was a bold move and Obama deserves some credit. It will be short-lived, but today we can enjoy it and act like Americans instead of Republicans.

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   05/02/11 14:03

Short-term, he's probably looking at a 5-10 point bump in his approval ratings to low-to-mid-50s, with the gains coming mostly from independents.

That will start to ebb pretty quickly between a stagnant economy, high unemployment, $5-a-gallon gas, and food inflation.

By July, he'll be back down to low-to-mid-40s.

Big picture, this won't mean a whole lot in terms of electoral politics.

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NOBO
   05/02/11 14:19

I wonder if Hitler was buried according to Lutheran tradition, or do we just reserve that respect for murdering islamists?

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batly
   05/02/11 14:36

As with all things involving the mainstream media and today's left they will overplay this victory. It was courageous for Obama to order this attack and I respect him for it. But I still need to fill up my car on the way home from work, groceries cost more everyday, and young people are still deploying and dying in Afghanistan and Iraq. Additionally, let us wait for the retribution that is surely coming from Osama's followers.

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 GWB
   05/02/11 15:17

@NOBO: Hitler wasn't a Lutheran, by any stretch of the imagination. Nor was he Catholic, or any other brand of Christianity. He didn't claim to be, either - the only gods NAZIs believed in were the Aryan ubermensch.

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aganesan
   05/02/11 15:37

One big difference Mr. McCarthy:

H.W. Bush presided over the formation of a recession and a deteriorating economy post the first Gulf War victory (momentum down) while Obama has the chance of steady economic improvement in the months leading up to Nov 2012 (momentum up). Momentum is everything.

He'll have an improving economy (albeit slowly) and the kudos of having bagged OBL.

We don't stand a chance against him next year...

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