I think there will be repercussions from the hit, and most of them will turn out to be good in terms of the War on Terror.
1) The world must now realize that the domestic antiwar movement is dead, kaput; it cares not a whit whether we assassinate bin Laden or a son of Qaddafi or go into Libya. Everything is on the table now and there are no self-restraints, no snickers on The Daily Show, no quirky insider winks on Letterman, no Barbara Streisand crazy faxes. A Nobel peace laureate is now the Left’s totem and he can send quite deadly Americans on quite deadly missions as he sees fit — and without worry about a New York Times op-ed barrage or an ACLU lawsuit. That gives the U.S. newfound advantages, a veritable blank check, from keeping Guantanamo open indefinitely to using a Cheney “assassination” team and valuable water-boarded intelligence wherever it wishes to. A Harold Koh is not going to be filing any more lawsuits against his government — he is the government.
2) For all the talk of “leading from behind” and the quagmire in Libya, the truth is that the U.S. military remains preeminent and transcends the administration in power at any given time. It won the Iraq war, and could easily, if unleashed, take out Qaddafi. The odds are still that it can stabilize Afghanistan. It is hard to imagine another country pulling off an operation of the sort that killed bin Laden. A “post-America” is simply a choice not to utilize its resources and power in a way it most certainly could with dispatch and success — as we see, in contrast, from the agonizing efforts of the British and French in Libya, or Russian anti-terrorism incompetence.
3) There is much talk of a payback to come. But the triumphalism of unapologetically celebrating the death of bin Laden also conveys a newfound confidence, or perhaps even fatalism, a sort of Bring it on, let’s get it over with once and for all. I think we will see that ‘whatever’ attitude with Pakistan, whose yelps about violation of its airspace will soon give way to the reality that American public opinion considers it not an ally, not even a neutral, but a veritable enemy that has done more harm to this country than Cuba, North Korea, or Venezuela ever dreamed of. Should Obama wish to deal toughly with the Pakistanis, he has public support, and of course the option of much closer relations with India, in and outside of Afghanistan. The public wants the Pakistan two-step to end.
4) Radical Islam has been incrementally and steadily weakened over the last decade. It has not repeated a 9/11-like operation. There are Bush-era antiterrorism protocols in place, embraced or expanded by Obama, that make terrorism far harder. We have killed thousands of Islamists in Anbar Province and in Afghanistan. The Arab world is fragmented, in open revolt, and the Arab Street is incapable of voicing, as it once did, solidarity with bin Laden. Obama knows this better than anyone, so talks of ‘reset’ even as he keeps the Bush antiterrorism protocols unchanged. Whether the trigger for this wave of Middle Eastern unrest and rebellion was the removal of Saddam and the establishment of a democracy in Iraq, or a Soviet-like implosion of failed autocratic government throughout the Middle East, it matters little. At least for now, Middle East dictatorships in extremis are claiming as their one saving grace their antiterrorism and anti-al-Qaeda credentials, and, likewise, those in the streets seeking to destroy these Middle East authoritarians are claiming just about the same. Both groups are probably lying, but their rhetoric at least is predicated on the fact that bin Laden & Co. are now losers in a way they were praised as winners between 2001 and 2003.
"those in the streets seeking to destroy these Middle East authoritarians are claiming just about the same."
This is unfortunately not true. The Muslim Brotherhood, ascendant in Egypt, has condemned the assassination.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI agree with every argument but the first: the domestic anti-war movement has never suffered from consistency or principle. All it needs is a republican in the White House to be re-invigorated. Arguments that "Your guy did this just 2 years ago" will be ignored and rationalized.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe reality is OBL & Co had been reduced to bit players a long time ago. As a fighting force, AQ is a non-factor, beyond symbolism. They have been relegated to places where they can do very little to western interest.
Let's hope Obama punishes Pakistan by letting them have Afghanistan and we get the heck out of that dung heap of a country.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"...the domestic anti-war movement has never suffered from consistency or principle. All it needs is a republican in the White House to be re-invigorated."
Oh sure, just like the homeless resurface in the media whenever the WH goes Republican, the antiwar movement will revive, too. But the politics have changed. If Obama can use waterboarding intel and an assassination team, no GOP president will scruple to use them, either. There will not be any fear of serious political blowback.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLots of good grist from VDH, but I'm not sure that the fact that no one has "repeated a 9/11-like operation" is proof of anything.
First, it discounts events like Madrid and Mumbai/Bombay. Second, wasn't 9/11 one-of-a-kind?
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No repeated 9/11-like operation thus far is, indeed, 100% proof of one thing: there has been no repeated 9/11-like operation thus far.
It doesn't mean overlooking horrific events that happen in India or Russia or Israel or Bali or Spain or anywhere else.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe won a major battle - and we have just lost the war.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePresident Obama will ride this to reelaction and any improvement in the economy will move the electorate in his direction. Look for Obama to declare a "peace" dividend as he reduces our defense spending and cuts deep into our military to balance the budget. This will improved the economy enough to get him reelcted. We will walk from Afghanistan and Iraq and leave Iran as the major power in the region. The raid in Pakistan will be a rallying point for the worst the radicals to take over that country. We will leave and most radical of islamist will take over. Already the far left is declaring victory and wanting to walk off the field. Rest assured the rest of the Dems will follow. Congrats- we have killed OBL now go buy your grand daughter a Burka.
Again, outstanding Mr. Hanson.
So well stated...
The hostile pacifist Anti-US/Anti-Military game played by Democratic Partisans will return instantly when a Republican returns to the White House. Remember, the very average pop musician named Crow, who once advocated for the Clinton bombing of Kosovo, then instantly turned anti-War when we had GW Bush as President?
Does anyone honestly believe Code Pink would not be assaulting Bush Administration Officials if they had authorized such a raid to kill Bin Laden?
The reality is, Obama, Clinton, Biden, etc., today all represent this huge fraud - as they are not honest about their use of Military Force, while they still take cheap political pot shots at the prior Administration they see as political opposition. It is deeply irresponsible, and will continue to weaken the USA with the divisive deceit.
Sincere problems with the contradictory "Unilateral Action" employed by Mr. Obama without some honest admission only grow today - even if we celebrate the elimination of a Monster. An essential aspect of leadership remains trust, and this is not an Administration anyone can trust when it continues to vilify the Bush Administration policies while exploiting these same policies to rebuke within public discourse. The unethical game makes the offering built upon rancid clay.
This says it all…
“No Class: Obama snubs Bush, praises himself”
External Link
If Democrats want to try to sell everyone on the idea they are wonderful using the powerful GW Bush policies, why not simply ask GW Bush to serve another term in the White House? Why bother with the flop of the Obama-Clinton ‘smart power’ when the strong policies of the Bush Administration continue to prove to be sound and successful?
Let’s cut out the middle man – the dishonest Democratic Party – and bring back President Bush.
Democratic Partisans are now going to tell us they love Unilateral Military Assassinations on foreign soil within sovereign Nations?
Please…
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseEric the Red, have faith. Ask Bush #I how he enjoyed his second term, after having a 90% approval rating after Gulf War I. The "independents" will vote their pocketbooks in 2012. The greatest challenge will be to motivate the Republican fence-sitters to get involved in 2012
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Ask Bush I how he enjoyed his second term, after having a 90% approval rating after Gulf War I. The independents will vote their pocketbooks in 2012."
Couldn't agree more. If the misery index rides high in double-digits next year, bin Laden's demise will seem like a distant memory by November 6. After all, Bush won a war. Obama only won an assassination.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMy issue with all the talking heads is their caution against the possible retribution that will follow this assassination. It seems to me that this action demonstrates that THE ISLAMISTS are the ones who should fear retribution!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWrong-o-roony, VDH. I'm not a member of any anti-war "movement," but previously on NRO I've commented that bi-partisan American cheers for deaths in Kadhaffi's family are repulsive. And, I'm among the many who very much doubt what the US (or NATO) is doing in Libya.
Have you not figured out yet that the US is not a nation of people, but a melange of special interest groups? Among these is the NRA, which likes anything with guns and does not much care about society or the economy. Among these are several religious groups who don't much care about society (despite their claims) or the economy, as long as Brand X religion get stomped. Among these are homosexual advocates, who don't much care about war, society, or the economy, as long as they get same-gender marriage or whatever else they want. Among these are open-borders groups that advocate for illegal immigrants, and don't much care about war, society, or the economy (it being better than wherever they came from).
The prior-generation antiwar movement largely consisted of a portion of the American people. At the time, the American people had a reasonably common culture, common language, and vaguely general sense of morality. THAT is what has gone.
My point is that any contemporary antiwar movement, if one exists, will be buried under contrary special interests. That is already the case with some small groups of which I know, who conflict with Israeli (none of this "Jewish"; that's lost too) and Arab special interest groups. It's not a matter of war and peace; it's a matter of which special interest group, representing foreign peoples, benefits more from war or from peace.
At seems that the US is retaining nothing except World Cop. The only reason for being here is that the cannons point outwards. So far, that is.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHey, Never_Outraged. Have you not figured out yet that special interest groups are made up of 'people?' ("the US is not a nation of people, but a melange of special interest groups..."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy didn't we demand that Pakistan give us its nukes right after 9/11? Why don't we do so now?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseA military that transcends the administration in power is the first step toward fascism. Obama might lose next year; he might not. Unitl then, the military still takes his orders. When that ends, so does America. And people like you are the ones I'll be looking for when that happens.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI just really enjoy thinking about the far lefts conversion, and the requirement that they shut up and swallow their pride, or be found to be the fools they are.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr. Hanson your points, as always are directly on target. The only requirement for these to come to pass is an administration wise enough to recognize the reality.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNever_Outraged: I see you aren't picky about which obnoxious and innaccurate stereotypes you choose to believe, as long as you can use them to support the narrative you wish to propagate today.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNoel: No one in the military is obligated to follow illegal orders. In fact, they can be prosecuted for following illegal orders.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGee, Noel Stewart, Jr., your post sounds like some uncivil smear and threat from an extremist! What Dr. Hanson wrote was: "the truth is that the U.S. military remains preeminent and transcends the administration in power at any given time."
I think it's pretty clear that that means the U.S. military's capability and efficiency remains consistent no matter which administration is currently occupying the White House. It remains a powerhouse organization in this world. Dr. Hanson did NOT write that the military transcends THIS administration, or that it didn't/shouldn't take orders from the current Commander-in-Chief.
But I realize that that's not nearly as satisfying for you as delivering some strawman lecture on fascism and threatening that "people like you are the ones I'll be looking for when that happens."
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