Get FREE NRO Newsletters

 

March 5 Issue  |  Subscribe  |  Renew

Close

New on NRO . . .

The Corner

The one and only.

Print   |  Text
 

Kent Conrad Caves

to the socialist wing of the Democratic Party. From The Hill:

[Senate Budget Committee chairman] Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) on Tuesday presented a budget proposal to Senate Democrats that calls for an even balance — 50 percent to 50 percent — of spending cuts and tax increases to reduce the deficit.

The emerging consensus on Capitol Hill is there should be at least $4 trillion in deficit reduction over the next 10 years. To meet that goal, Congress would have to increase tax revenues by $2 trillion over the next decade with an equal amount of spending cuts.

[...]

Conrad has moved his budget proposal to the left in order to gain the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), an outspoken progressive on the budget panel. Sanders has called for “shared sacrifice” in reducing the deficit and wants to increase taxes on families earning over a $1 million a year.

That is a far cry from the Bowles-Simpson commission’s proposal to employ a 3-to-1 ratio of spending cuts to tax increases, which Conrad supported. Truth be told, Conrad had long been a sensible player when it came to deficit reduction, but that hardly seems to be the case anymore if he is letting an avowed socialist (Sanders) drive the budget debate within the Democratic conference.

Sen. Jeff Sessions (R., Ala.), top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, is not impressed. “I think that is a clear capitulation of the Democratic leadership to the left,” Sessions tells National Review Online. “I’m confident Senator Conrad would have done more with the budget if the Democratic conference had gone along with him.”

“Certainly it will not get a single Republican vote,” he adds. “This is a statement that they’re moving a partisan budget, without any expectation of Republican support.”

UPDATE: More details about Senate Democratic budget emerge:

Millionaires would be hit with a 3 percent surtax under a draft Senate Democratic budget.

A Senate aide told The Hill Wednesday that the draft 2012 budget outline presented at Tuesday’s Democratic policy lunch by Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-N.D.) called for a 3 percent surtax on income over $1 million a year.

Conrad’s proposal would use a 50-50 split of spending cuts and tax increases to reduce the deficit, and was seen as a move to the left to satisfy progressives in the Senate Democratic caucus.

The leftward shift is also sure to play a role as Democrats lay down a marker in discussions over raising the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling with Republicans, who have said the House GOP budget is their starting point.

Still, the surtax could have trouble winning support among the more centrist Senate Democrats. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), a Budget Committee member, said Wednesday that no final decision had been made on whether to include that sort of idea in the 2012 proposal.

UPDATE II: Conrad says he has been delaying the markup hearing on his budget in part because he is waiting for a new “path” from the Congressional Budget Office that incorporates the savings from the recently passed FY 2011 continuing resolution (the so-called “budget deal”) that would reduce federal spending by about $750 billion over the next decade.

At issue is the extent to which Conrad can “take credit” for those savings or whether they are effectively built in to a new established baseline. Obviously, Conrad would love to have a “free” $750 billion towards his proposed $2 trillion in spending cuts. In fact, when President Obama outlined his “new” “budget” “plan” last month in a speech at George Washington University, incorporating these news savings (that he had vociferously opposed) was about the only significant change he “proposed” (apart from extending the traditional 10-year budget window to 12 years).

If Conrad is unable to count those savings as spending cuts, his entire budget could fall apart, particularly given the Democratic conference’s complete unwillingness to cut spending.

Either way, Conrad has not made clear as to what baseline he is using to score his $4 trillion in deficit reduction. As it stands, the CBO’s baseline already assumes a $4 trillion tax increase as a result of the Bush tax rates expiring and the Alternative Minimum Tax not being patched. So for all we know, he could be calling for a tax hike of $6 trillion.

UPDATE III: Not that Conrad doesn’t know this as well as anyone, but their is no shortage of research to suggest that, among countries trying to stabilize their debt problems, those that rely too heavily on tax increases as compared to spending cuts fare far worse.

Noted Harvard economist Alberto Alesina, for example, recently concluded: “Spending cuts are much more effective than tax increases in stabilizing the debt and avoiding economic downturns.  In fact, in several episodes, spending cuts adopted to reduce deficits have been associated with economic expansions rather than recessions.”

More here.

UPDATE IV: Conrad played down reports that his budget will include a 3 percent surtax on millionaires. “We operate under the rule that nothing’s final until everything’s final,” he told reporters. “So I just warn you that things that might be in a draft or were up for discussion may or may not be there at the finish line.” He declined to say whether he would support such a proposal.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   20

EXPAND  

   05/10/11 18:39

Why would anyone be surprised? This is the oldest game in Washington. The Dems find some gullible Republicans to go in on a kumbaya bi-partisan pow-wow. They pretend they are listening to the GOP guys and the stupid GOP guys play along.

Then, they pull the rug out from under the thing and come out with their preferred policy. The press will have the dems on all the Sunday shows complimenting them on their reasonableness.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/10/11 18:45

He was held hostage by Sanders, because he only has a majority of one on his committee. This was the minimum Sanders would accept.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/10/11 18:48

With that budget they probably won't even get majority support. I don't see how McCaskill, Tester, Manchin,a nd Ben Nelson could possibly vote for that budget without getting hammered next year. And Bill Nelson probably also doesn't relish voting for a budget with $2 trillion in tax increases. That doesn't even get into the other more moderate Democrats who have not been entirely on board with such plans like Pryor, Landrieu, and Warner - all of whom will eventually have to run for re-election.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
 NK
   05/10/11 19:01

I disagree with the Zman on this. What he says accurately describes 1981-2009, but things have now changed. Since 2010 we now have a rightwing party and a leftwing party. It's all out there in the open. That's why squishy Repubs are losing primaries and "moderate " Dems like Kent Conrad are getting out. Hopefully moronic harry reid moves this budget and the dems have to vote, he won't get 50 votes for it. Then that other moron Biden has to make a deal with McConnell and the House; Barry O will repudiate that deal and demand a continuing resolution so the people can speak in 2012. The debt ceiling does pose a problem for that budget strategy. Barry O's in a tight spot-- gotta love it.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/10/11 19:42

@NK,

The words, "this time it will be different" preceded every disaster in that time period. Until I see something different, I'm going to assume things have not changed at all.

The 2012 election will be about Obama's "reasonable" middle approach of raising taxes and cutting spending (in the year 2999) versus the "extremist" Republican that simply wants to roll back spending.

The GOP should be spending all their time talking about their "modest" spending cuts and leave the liberals to pitch their plans, without any help from the GOP.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
MarkJ
   05/10/11 20:01

"Kent Conrad caves...to the socialist wing of the Democratic Party."

IMHO, there are no "socialists" in the Party of Donks: only "Mensheviks" and "Bolsheviks."

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/10/11 20:30

Okay, here's a stab and a Grand Unified Theory for Republicans in 2012:
The extremes on the issue that matters are represented by Mitch "Social Issue Truce" Daniels and Rick "Truce on Moral Issues Means you Don't Understand What America's About" Santorum. The reason this is where the rubber meets the road is that winning both the White House and the Senate will required energizing both fiscal and social conservatives.
The 50-50 spending cut/tax increase proposal by the Dems for deficit reduction is exactly what one would expect from a party that has moral relativism at its very core. It is a functional expression of the moral equivalence that such relativism always attends. For this reason, it is fundamentally wrong.
In an important sense, the separation of "fiscal" and "moral" issues is misleading, artificial, an just plain wrong. How much money the government should collect under threat of imprisonment, and what it should spend that money on, are clearly moral questions. And Santorum is right to think that a "truce on moral issues" is political cowardice masquerading as fiscal responsibility. On the other hand, Daniels is right that preoccupation with divisive social issues will likely alienate some voters and thereby imperil the assembly of a coalition large enough to power the kind of transformation that is required to avoid financial ruin.
So, who is the right candidate to unseat Obama, provide coattails long enough to seize the Senate, and acquire in the process sufficient political capital to implement the reforms we need to swerve away from the cliff? Answer: the one who makes the most compelling argument about FISCAL matters in MORAL terms. Capture the green eyeshaders by speaking to their ISSUES; capture the social and religious conservatives by speaking in their LANGUAGE. And because budget questions are, ultimately, moral questions, this should not be that hard.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/10/11 21:35

No expectation of Republican support? Au contrair.

McCain, Snowe, Graham, Collins, Graham, Merkowski come immediately to mind. The great Independent Lieberman. I can think of a few more squishes, depending on how much they are offered. The left plays this gang like a harp.

Nope, I think Sessions is puffing out his chest here, just like Boehner and Cantor. When we finally see what "deal" the "Republicans" end up with...it won't be what they promise.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/10/11 22:47

If Republicans were smart, they'd adopt the talking point of calling this the "Bernie Sanders Budget." Few leftists in DC make so unambiguous a villain as a self-declared Socialist.

Of course, if Republicans were smart, I probably wouldn't be an independent...

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/11/11 00:35

As I and many others predicted earlier in this space, Conrad would not make any real cuts or any real compromise that might affect his ability to get consulting/lobbying gigs with liberal interest groups or law firms post-2012.

This is a fight to the death: there is no compromise or middle ground, conservatives just have to win. Go forth and get it done.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
Navtechie
   05/11/11 04:58

Please don't carry forward the false premise that COnrad is a "deficit hawk." He has been anything but.

As a North Dakotan he has been an embarrassment to us. Deficit hawk my butt.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/11/11 05:45

So rather than do what is in the best interests of the American people, the representative of the people of the State of North Dakota has opted to do what is in the best interests of socialist Bernie Sanders. And that, my friends, is the problem with Washington and until we fix that, nothing much is going to change.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/11/11 13:22

Jenna: bankruptcy will force change whether the pols want it or not. My guess is that the Ds actually don't mind a bankruptcy because then they will be given a new chance to cause even more havoc with their mindless meddling.

Dr. H: agreed, the Ds are vulnerable in a number of different ways. Here's another one: we are going bankrupt. Short, accurate, and gets to the heart of the problem. Do you want 80% of something or 0% of everything? Who's the extremist now, the person who is trying to force us into bankruptcy?

Reheiler: good ideas but you may be overthinking it. People want somebody they trust and is a good communicator. They will even elect a socialist to be US president (just so long as he denies and obfuscates his real beliefs) if there are no other alternative candidates that meet this minimal threshold.

Reldim: they don't need 2 trillion in tax increases, just 1 trillion stretched over 5 years, but they're having a difficult time doing even that since they just delayed their budget another week. Remember, the Ds position is that they want a 2 trillion raise in the cap and are willing to meet that figure using a 50/50 split in tax increases/spending cuts.

It should be easy to reach that $200 billion in spending cuts just by promising to end the three wars and sending all of the troops home. And they don't even have to put it in law -- they can just make promises -- because no R is going to dare call the Ds on that bluff, so the Ds do have a few cards they can still play without looking like complete incompetents.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/11/11 13:35

I look forward to NRO's response to the 75 Catholic priests who went after Boehner.

I love the irony when a very Catholic NRO tries to talk its way around its own acknowledged Lord and Savior.

Kinda like taking the Terri Schiavo side big time and then a couple of years later William F. Buckley pulls the plug on his wife.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/11/11 13:46

The republicans know that taxes will go up. So they propose all spending cuts and no tax increases. The Dems know that spending will have to be cut. So they demand a debt limit increase without any spending cuts. These are irresponsible negotiating tactics by unprincipled ideologues posturing for the press and their core supporters, instead of actually governing.

Now the Dems will recommend 50% tax increases and 50% spending cuts. The Republicans will say no taxes. The center sane 6 or 7 people left in Washington will then say "let's split the difference, at the 3 to 1 mix the deficit commission recommended to begin with". Both parties will throw hissy fits at the prospect. Then they will finally agree on that formula, and vote to raise the debt limit.

And nobody will notice that while they fought tooth and nail over composition they ignored the actual vital question, scale, and that they only moved a tenth of the distance they need to, to actually make any appeciable impact on the problem. They will say it is trillions, but those trillions will be over 10 years or more, and back weighted, and in the first two years the total will be more like $100-200 billion, and the deficit will remain wide open.

It is all predictable, and hereby predicted, and stupid beyond words.

Please get serious, people. 3 to 1 is fine, but the scale needs to be $500 billion in the first year.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/11/11 14:20

Ahh..."shared sacrifice"...my favorite excuse that they give.

Let's see here:

Who sacrifices when we cut spending? The money they are spending is my tax dollars. The spending dollars are supposedly being spent on me...the taxpayer. So spending cuts are a sacrifice for...umm...looks like ME the taxpayer. So there you go:

Spending cuts = a sacrifice for the taxpayer

Who sacrifices when we raise taxes? Well it's my money so taking more of it from my pocket would pretty much be a sacrifice for me. So there you go:

Tax increases = a sacrifice for the taxpayer

It's nice to see that I am sharing both sides of this shared sacrifice. I have encountered this odd understanding of the word "share" before but I must admit...

...it was with my 5 year old.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
SJLong_GA
   05/11/11 15:00

And the incompetent GOP makes no use of the study of IMF/country bankruptcies by Harvard economists...that found that countries that tried to work their way out of bankruptcy using increased taxes...failed. The only way that history has shown will work is to cut spending. In other words - there is a large, large club to beat Democrats and the media over the head w/...and our side can't seem to grasp it - much less use it.

Coupled that with a statement that increased taxes are only used by politicians and government to buy power and control over people...which is a winning and easily grasped concept...and there's no reason for the GOP/conservatives to be remotely losing politically.

Of course, these PR/political battles should have been fought over the past three years...setting up the win. Instead, we're playing catch-up to a bunch of illogical idiots. Not sure what that says about our politicians. Pretty sure it means that they are even bigger idiots.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
John Duresky
   05/11/11 15:31

Best way to balance the budget is to cut the number of Senators and Congressmen in half via a Constitutional amendment. The fewer of them there are, the fewer of them will be there to dream up bills to spend our money, plus we would have a direct savings on fewer salaries and benefits for them and their bloated staffs.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
   05/11/11 16:59

Reheiler: Ditto!

Social and fiscal issues are two sides of the same coin. Every social problem carries a financial cost, and a financial crisis of mismanagement of our money is a moral outrage.

It should not be that hard to find a TRUE conservative in a party that is supposedly conservative, if it WAS, truly, a conservative party.

Answer: Herman Cain.

If he's still in the race a few months before primary season, I'll change my registration to be entitled to vote. Don't worry - it'd get changed back the day after!

Everyone else in that race merely is pretending to understand the fiscal and moral situation we are in.

MikeB: I didn't know William F. Buckley was a judge. I thought he was a private citizen.

If you cannot fathom that difference, next time you sit on the loo, squeeze a bit harder. Your brain might just make an appearance!

Do you know what Mrs. Buckley's intentions were? And if they were stated clearly?

And as you clearly don't understand, 75 Catholic Priests -- a smidgen of the total -- are not anyone's "Lord and Savior". Except, of course, to "regressives" like yourself, who pray at the pagan altar of human superiority.

Too bad for you that you lost what you perceive to be "life's lottery", and you came up "snake eyes" in the intelligence department.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse
buku.banzai
   05/11/11 22:44

MikeB, they didn't "pull the plug" on Terri Schiavo. They starved her to death. Killed her in a cruel manner.

You don't seem to know anything about anything. Such are the perils of a wiki education and an eye for moral equivalence.

Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse

Add a Comment

Already Registered? Log In Here.


The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.


* Designates a required field.
© National Review Online 2012
All Rights Reserved.
Subscriptions
NR / Print
NR / Digital

Gift Subscriptions
NR / Print
NR / Digital
NR Apps
iPhone/iPad
Android

NRO Apps
iPhone
Support Us
Donate
Media Kit
Contact