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The Downside of Being the Smartest Guy in the Room

For what it’s worth, I’m still a fan of Gingrich. I still believe that, among politicians, and with the exception of Bill Clinton, he’s the best extemporaneous political speaker in America. He’s shown me personal kindnesses as well and, as I’ve disclosed many times, my wife once worked for him. But, as the kids say, he needs to check himself before he wrecks himself — if he hasn’t already (BTW I fully expect the vast majority of commenters to fall into the “it’s too late for Newt” column).

In addition to Rich’s excellent column on Newt, I’d recommend the Wall Street Journal’s editorial, particularly this passage:

Yet now he is trashing Mr. Ryan for thinking far more deeply about health care, and in a far more principled fashion, than Mr. Gingrich ever has. The episode reveals the Georgian’s weakness as a candidate, and especially as a potential President—to wit, his odd combination of partisan, divisive rhetoric and poll-driven policy timidity.

This is the best single line explaining the contradictions of Gingrichian politics. Gingrich is very wedded to the idea that he should be on the majority side of every major public policy issue. That’s why he believes in framing policy questions so they become “70-30 issues” (or sometimes even “80-20″ issues) — i.e. issues where he’s on the side of 70 percent of Americans against the 30 percent “elite.”

As a political formula, there’s much to recommend this. But there are a couple problems as well. First, simply rephrasing the issues so that 70 percent of those polled agree with you is not the same thing as actually finding a policy that a super-majority of the public will rally behind (or get through Congress). Polarizing rhetoric does not automatically yield support for polarized policy. So that’s why — or at least partly why — Gingrich “frames” things in such stark terms while adhering to fairly timid policies.

One exception of course is when he proposes win-win policies that seem visionary (sometimes because they are) but are also about 10 steps ahead of where we actually are and hence take little political courage and therefore come at little political cost.

For instance, yesterday Jim Pinkerton defended Newt in the Corner by pointing to the fact that Newt’s policy prescription on Alzheimer’s disease is to “cure it.” I think Gingrich and Pinkerton make a great point about how cures are cheaper than care. But come on. Who’s against curing Alzheimer’s? While we’re at it, let’s cure all of the diseases and save trillions. In the meantime what do we do about health care costs today? Newt’s immediate policy proposals on Meet the Press were twofold: attack fraud and “start a conversation.”

One major source of Newt’s problems is that he is almost always the smartest guy in the room. Compounding this problem is an ability and compulsion to defend any position he takes. For a politician this can be an enormous problem because it creates a climate where he can’t take unwelcome advice from his staff. I don’t mean because he’s a bullying boss — I know many people who have worked for Newt, including my wife, and by all accounts he’s a very generous and decent employer and a surprisingly good listener. The problem is that he can always “win” the arguments about whether he made a mistake. It would be interesting to know if after his Meet the Press interview anybody on Newt’s staff told him, “Uh, sir, that stuff about Paul Ryan’s budget and the individual mandate is going to create huge problems.” If no one said something like that, it’s a bad sign, either because they couldn’t see the obvious either, or because they were afraid to tell the boss the truth.

You can’t run for president of the United States with a staff of advisers who think everything you do is a homerun. Well, you can, but you can’t possibly win.

Update: Already a slew of readers tell me that Obama disproves the last graf. Maybe so. But for reasons good and bad Newt is not Obama and Obama is not Newt. So for the sake clarity, let’s change the word “you” in the final two sentences (“You can’t run for president…” to “Newt”).

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   61

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   05/17/11 11:48

For such a smart guy -- or so the conservative commentariat keeps telling us -- Newt sure says and does a lot of dumb things. Maybe the qualifying standard for being a genius in Washington is lower than in other areas.

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Philster
   05/17/11 11:50

"You can’t run for president of the United States with a staff of advisers who think everything you do is a homerun. Well, you can, but you can’t possibly win."

So how do you explain Obama?

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   05/17/11 11:50

"Well, you can, but you can’t possibly win."

Seems to have worked for Obama.

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   05/17/11 11:51

For me Newt was finished when he sat on that couch with Nancy. This latest flub is just more dirt on the grave.

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Ben Grasmuck
   05/17/11 11:51

"You can’t run for president of the United States with a staff of advisers who think everything you do is a homerun. Well, you can, but you can’t possibly win." Didn't that just happen in 2008? And along with the advisers, the media treated everything "the One" said as divine.

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   05/17/11 11:52

It's already too late for Newt . . . (just to get that over with)
Actually, he just suffers from the academic disease. (Probably the same thing Obama suffers from, though I would guess that Newt was a better teacher than Obama was.)
He just figures he needs to lecture for an hour, the kids will absorb it, and then pass his test. He also believes that the nodding heads in the audience means they think every word is a pearl. But, just like the old days in a college lecture, we are often thinking about where else we could be. Unfortunately in politics, you can't make people follow your lesson plan. They have to be persuaded, and Newt does not persuade very well, he just lectures.

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   05/17/11 11:53

Aide de camp: "Election in November, Election in November."

Mayor Quimby: "Again? This stupid country."

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 CTL
   05/17/11 11:54

Curing diseases doesn't have to mean reduced costs. Reducing the numner of people that drop dead of heart attacks means that we spend a lot more money treating them for other diseases, like cancer etc. And, even if we cured all of those diseases, we would still need to spend a lot more money to take care of them because your body just wears out as you get older.

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   05/17/11 11:56

SeanB: Sometimes nodding heads means your audience is falling asleep.

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   05/17/11 11:59

We need a bigger room. We're gonna get a bigger room, right?

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River City
   05/17/11 12:07

"For me Newt was finished when he sat on that couch with Nancy. This latest flub is just more dirt on the grave." Ditto. Newt has too many RINO tendencies and show a strong desire to be the Great Compromiser, which if course compromises conservative principles in favor of more Big Government crony capitalism/socialism. Thanks but no thanks Newt. This is one Iowan that will make sure you don't make it to semi-finals.

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JD522
   05/17/11 12:12

"You can’t run for president of the United States with a staff of advisers who think everything you do is a homerun. Well, you can, but you can’t possibly win."

What MarkW said. Obama certainly proved it can be done. The real problem is that you can't possibly *govern* with a staff like that. Which Obama has also been busily proving.

As for Newt - all I can say is "don't let the screen door hit you." He has far too much in common with Bill Clinton (and Obamam) for my tastes. Among other things they all take themselves entirely too seriously. Being president requires a sense of one's limitations, as well as one's strengths, and a real sense of humility, humor and even irony about oneself.

Ronald Reagan could laugh at himself. So could George W. Bush. JFK's sense of irony verged on the cynical. (When some members of his administration got a little full of themselves after a magazine reporter called them "coruscatingly brilliant", the president remarked, "A few thousand votes the other way and we'd all be coruscatingly stupid.") For all that they felt they had a reason for running, and that they were at least as plausible as president as the guys they ran against, all three men privately (and sometimes publicly) understood that their real competition was the giants who had come before them.

I honestly think that Newt (like Clinton and Obama) really believes he is the near-equal of a Washington, a Jefferson, a Lincoln, TR or FDR. Given the same challenges I think all three are supremely and almost unreflexively confident that they could do as well, all things considered. Reagan and Bush would do their best and hope for the best, but I doubt either had the hubris to do so without a hint of self-doubt or humility.

Humility isn't something Newt has in large amounts. He's right up there with Mr. "I can lower the level of the Oceans", and "Just let me give a speech and I'll fix that Middle East thing". And a Gingrich administration would be just as big a collection of failed initiatives and broken promise, except they would be more conservative initiatives and promises. (Well, *some* of them would be. ;-))

Regards,

Joe

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jmc
   05/17/11 12:12

Gingrich has the worst temperament of any candidate running for president. He still wants to be the bomb-thrower attacking the Democratic Congress of the late '80s and early '90s. He seems to enjoy irritating people, even when it's not helping him. As the guy in Iowa told him, it's over.

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   05/17/11 12:12

Newt's on-going problem has been that his ego has always been larger than his intellect. Granted, one has to have a significant ego in order to seek higher office, but his is world-class.

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   05/17/11 12:18

Smartest? I don't know; sometimes I think we all have an enormous capacity to confuse glib with smart.

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   05/17/11 12:26

If he's so smart, why does he use "social engineering" to mean "drastic change," when it means nothing of the sort?

"One major source of Newt’s problems is that he is almost always the smartest guy in the room. ... he can’t take unwelcome advice from his staff."

"Smart" minus "humility" equals "dangerous," especially anywhere near the levers of power. A man who doesn't know what he doesn't know and cannot admit when he's wrong is not someone I want in office.

I have not sensed in Mr. Gingrich any sense of urgency about the debt crisis, nor any understanding of where the Tea Party is coming from--that we WANT drastic change to fix a drastic problem--nor how the voters are eager to find a candidate who will take direction from US instead of vice-versa.

Brains are good, of course, but it also depends on what those brains are cogitating.

Jonah's high praise notwithstanding, Newt's not the man for this time. He just isn't.

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   05/17/11 12:26

Currently America is a bit weary of the "smartest guy in the room" syndrome. I'll take Paul Ryan for the future, please. He seems like the kind of smart we need right about now.

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   05/17/11 12:45

In a graduate seminar, a professor once posed to my class the following question:
"What is the difference between politics and policy?"
We each tried to address the question, and most gave lengthy and convoluted answers. By coincidence and seating arrangement, I was last. Knowing it would please my professor, who was a Straussian focused on the distinction between the "is" and the "ought," I answered:
"Policy is about what's right and politics is about what works."
If Newt Gingrich could keep that dinstinction always in his mind and tailor his public words accordingly, he would be far more likely to win support fo his presidential campaign. Because he cannot, he is forever stating political dicta as if they are matters of policy, and vice versa.
No amount of communications skill can transform the IS into the OUGHT. Ergo, Newt is toast.

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   05/17/11 12:55

Needless to say, Jonah seems to have caught Gingrich disease by writing this article before thinking about what he was saying. Good heavens.

Hey Jonah,as for extemporaneous speakers, there's a guy by the name of Rubio you might want to check out. He's every bit as good as Gingrich with one big exception: He'll actually be president someday.

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Osama Been Gotten
   05/17/11 12:59

Jonah,

While Newt is now pretty much politically dead to me, I appreciate the fact that you even bothered to broach the subject, unlike Sean Hannity last night.

I was surprised and a bit shocked to see that Hannity only spent about 30 seconds on the matter and otherwise totally ignored it!

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised, he's one of Hannity's leading guests on TV and radio, but I expected better principles from him, rather than to let friendship get in the way of conservative principles and hanging Ryan (& almost all of the Republican House members) out to dry.

Make all of the excuses you like, but that level of loyalty to conservatisim makes one dead to me.

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