Laura Meckler had a piece in this morning’s Wall Street Journal about Jewish donors’ warning Obama not to push Israel too hard in his Middle East speech today. If she’s right about Jewish discomfort with Obama’s Middle East policies — and I think she is — Jewish donors and voters alike will not be comforted by Obama’s speech.
There were three main problems with the address. The first is the way in which Obama explained the ongoing Israeli–Palestinian conflict. It is notable that when Obama said, “Israeli settlement activity continues. Palestinians have walked away from talks,” he put the Israeli action first. A plausible interpretation of this is that, in Obama’s view, Palestinians walked away as a result of Israel’s settlement activity, and the Palestinian walkaway is therefore justified.
Second is that Obama did not demand an end to Palestinian misbehavior so much as predict, in a removed way, that such behavior will not serve them well:
For the Palestinians, efforts to delegitimize Israel will end in failure. Symbolic actions to isolate Israel at the United Nations in September won’t create an independent state. Palestinian leaders will not achieve peace or prosperity if Hamas insists on a path of terror and rejection. And Palestinians will never realize their independence by denying the right of Israel to exist.
Compare this with Bush’s starker and more direct words on the subject in his June 24, 2002, speech:
And the United States will not support the establishment of a Palestinian state until its leaders engage in a sustained fight against the terrorists and dismantle their infrastructure.
When it comes to Israel, however, Obama returns to demand, rather than predictive, mode, saying that “Israel too must act boldly to advance a lasting peace.
Third, Obama placed few limits on his support for a two-state solution. He also minimized Israel’s security concerns and limited Israel’s negotiating leverage by calling for a state with 1967 borders, instead of letting the parties themselves hash out the parameters. Again, compare this with the words of Bush, who rightly made American support for a Palestinian state contingent on concrete Palestinian actions:
If Palestinians embrace democracy, confront corruption, and firmly reject terror, they can count on American support for the creation of a provisional state of Palestine.
All of this is not accidental. Presidential speeches are written and rewritten so that they convey specific messages.
For these reasons, Obama has ample reason to worry about a poor reception when he speaks to a very pro-Israel audience at AIPAC this Sunday. In addition, Obama’s campaign goal of raising $1 billion becomes much harder if he loses major Jewish fundraisers. While Bush’s 2004 improvement in the polls among American Jews was relatively small — from 19 percent support in 2000 to 24 percent in 2004 — Bush also poached a number of significant fundraisers from the Democratic side because of his pro-Israel stance.
Finally, Obama has reason to fear a poorer showing in the overall Jewish vote in 2012. More important, though, it’s not just Jewish voters Obama needs to worry about. Polls have consistently shown that Americans in general are supportive of Israel. Jews are only 2 percent of the population, but the percentage of Israel backers who will be going to the polls in 2012 will be much higher.
About the first thing Obama has said/done (I don't include OBL because it was a no-brainer) that I would applaud. Not surprising to see the typical NR/AIPAC response. Any difference between NR and AIPAC on such issues is not broad enough to slip a sheet of paper into.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis is pathetic. I'm as pro-Israel as they come and even I viewed Obama's speech as incredibly pro-Israel:
1. First and foremost, how can you possibly analyze this speech without mentioning his unequivocal denunciation of Palestinian plans to unilaterally declare statehood in September? You quote the text and ignore the most important part!
2. The 1967 borders thing is a gross distortion of what he said, which was nothing more than a rehash of the US position for 15 years: 1967 borders WITH land swaps designed to guarantee Israeli security. Presidents Clinton AND Bush both took the same position. The only people who disagree with this are delusional, like the wingnut who took to the NYT today to declare that Israel should just annex the West Bank (as an aside - how classic of the NYT - they publish utter drivel and lies from Abbas, so they have to balance it with utter drivel from the other direction? Talk about dumbing down the debate).
Even the ADL issued a statement saying that the speech hit all the right notes.
Look, two years ago Obama was one of the worst presidents on Israel since Eisenhower. But he's come a long way--mugged by reality indeed. This speech hit all the right notes and should be commended.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObviously, the Obama 2012 campaign was ready with phony posts like the first two below allegedly coming from Pro-Israel posters. If ''Rightwing Jew'' is Pro-Israel, then so are the Israel-bashers of J Street, James Baker and Noam Chomskly, et al.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama's position undercuts Israel's position on borders and emboldens hard-line Palestinians who want to return to the 1967 lines, which Israel super-dove Abba Eban correctly called ''the Auschwitz lines.''
Unfortunately, most leftist Democrats would put Israel's very existence in peril before they would publicly disagree with any leftist Democratic President, much less a black one. Troy is, unfortunately, incorrect. Obama will get a warm welcome from most of the AIPAC audience, the majority of whom are leftist Democrats.
In fact, Obama would get a friendlier reception than Netanyahu before almost any so-called Jewish organization. For a truly warm reception the Israeli PM must address conservative Christian groups.
I join the brilliant Norman Podhoretz in deploring the knee-jerk support so many of our co-religionists provide to Democrats, even if they are enemies of Israel.
I thought Obama said (in reference to Iran) that it wasn't appropriate to meddle in the affairs of other nations. This isn't just about Israel's external relationships but its internal affairs as well.
I think it would be appropriate for Israel to demand that the USA return to its pre-1812 borders. After all, there are people calling the USA "occupiers" of the southwestern states area. The land should have to be given back, for consistency. Then the Mexican descendants of Spaniards should have to leave the country to the Indian tribes and go to Spain. The Incans and Mayans should have to return to their original ancestral lands and give up what they conquered (uh, stole) from other Indian tribes before the Spaniards showed up.
Let's be serious. Land that was conquered should stay under the control of whomever has it until it can be reconquered. If a nation wants to give up land to another nation out of some delusion this will bring peace (as opposed to demands for more land), as we seem on path to do in Arizona and Texas, that is their decision. Obama has a nerve telling the Israelis what to do. He can't even run his own country competently.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@Rightwing Jew
You're wrong. Obama's position on 1967 (really 1949) borders is a change. In 2004 President Bush clearly stated that a compromise based on 1967 borders was unrealistic due to realities on the ground. Yet Obama has just made that the basis for negogtiations, cutting the Israelis off at the knees.
I can just hear the jackals in the U.N. now; If the Preident of the United States,Israel's "staunchest" ally, has stated that 1967 borders are an appropriate starting point, why are the Israelis being so obstinate in refusing them?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy the elaboration when the simplest way to think about all world problems is to believe that anything Obama does will never be good enough? It all seems very simple, very "cut and dry". The rest feels like fluff.
To presuppose everything Obama does is wrong certainly conserves words rather than liberally wastes them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy does it matter what a President (any President) says or does about the Israeli-Palestinian dispute?
For some reason, many are comparing President Obama's words and actions unfavorably with President George W. Bush's words and actions.
And Mr. Bush, in 8 years, accomplished - what, exactly? You want to take a look at the Israeli-Palestinian dispute in January 2001 and explain how it was materially different from the dispute in January 2009 other than that, like an afternoon soap opera with real bombs, bullets and blood, some of the characters had died and others had arrived on the scene? Was a "resolution" - by negotiation or victory - one whit closer?
Both sides have chosen to have their nose in the U.S. taxpayer trough so both sides have to listen to our lectures. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the Israelis are indisputably "right" and the Palestinians indisputably "wrong."
Well, ok. Now what?
Would the dispute look different today if Mr. Bush was in his third term? If Senator McCain was in his first? Will it look different in 2015 if Mr. Obama is in the third year of his second term than if President Pawlenty / Romney / Daniels / Christie [insert Dream Republican President here] is in the third year of his first term?
Really?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama quaking in his boots regarding the political dangers of his speech? I doubt it. Howard Baker would tell you why, but I will not repeat the quote as my posts get deleted often enough as it is.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@H. Felton & VenerableBede: What on earth are you talking about? Seriously? I'm still scratching my head about what, if anything, was new in this speech other than the denunciation of a unilateral creation of a Palestinian state. Hillary Clinton in 2009 said literally the same words that came out of Obama's mouth a few hours ago. The released documents from the Olmert/Abbas/Bush negotiations show the exact same outline of a deal that Obama said in his speech. You're left with ramming through a distinction between (i) not having a settlement be based on the 1949 Armistice lines (Bush) and (ii) having a settlement along the 1967 lines with land swaps (Obama). If that's what you have, the difference is utterly lost on me. Bush repeatedly told Israel to stop expanding settlements because it undermined the prospects of a negotiated settlement.
Obama's misstep was always insisting on talking about borders before a deal and pressuring Israel to make concessions. But the reason it was a misstep was because the borders issue was always largely resolved. Obama has completely retreated from the position from 2009 and is basically reiterating longstanding US policy. Meanwhile, the ADL and half of Commentary magazine agree with me; I guess I'll let J-Street know they have some new recruits.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI believe the reason Obama mentioned the settlements first is because he took it personal that Israel continues with the settlements against his wishes.
Obama is a cold person who takes everything very personally.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAmericans,and to a lesser extent Israelis, need to stop treating renouncing terror as a concession from the Palestinians. For most societies it is a prerequisite to merely being considered worth talking to as human beings. If Palestinian society is not willing to condemn beheading a three month old and shooting an anti-tank at a school bus, then they are savages who should be treated as such.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think Obama could send every Israeli to the ovens, spread their ashes over Osama Bin Laden's watery grave, give their property to the arabs, and American Jews would still give him lots of money and about 80-90% of their votes.
For some reason, Jews in America are extremely liberal, defying rationality.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI know that traditionally Jews have supported Democratic Presidents. I did not support Obama last time nor will I in the next election. He is clearly partician on this issue and anti-Israel. He tries to sound like he respects the Jews, but his policies do not. Fool me once, shame on you...Fool me twice, shame on me. We need to reconsider who we vote for. Just because there is a "D" behind his name, may stand for destruction and not democrate. This time, I will send my donations and vote for the Republicans. We have seen this backhanded hatred before.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseToday's press release from the ADL, lead paragraph:
"The Anti-Defamation League (ADL) today commended President Barack Obama for his statement of U.S. priorities in the Middle East, his strong affirmation of the deep and "unshakeable" relationship between the United States and Israel, and expressed support for his vision of a negotiated Israeli-Palestinian settlement with strong security provisions for Israel and a non-militarized Palestinian state."
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Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBeing anti-Israel is one of the litmus tests of the far left. Obama, who really doesn't care for foreign policy because it distracts from his domestic agenda, feels compelled to say something about it occasionally.
The only real debate in the wake of his remarks is how far he actually threw Israel under the bus. On the positive side, he's unlikely to do anything more serious than expressing his default position. Not when he can just defer it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe 1967 border issue is still negotiable. He did not demand Right Of Return (which would seriously damage Israel's ability to remain as a Jewish state). The fact is several US Presidents - Democrat and Republican - have endlessly called on Israel to stop expanding with settlements (and the Israelis have arrogantly ignored the kind request of their biggest - and likely, only - ally). Obama just stated an ACTUAL line - now let's go from there. The other key is to get support from the European Community (which has started). I believe ALL front-line nations need to support Israel's long-term security, not just the US (and that will only happen with a realistic map).
Regarding why most Jews continue to vote Democrat (the exception benig the "Israel: right or wrong" group): Jews have a strong belief in civil rights and social justice (in Israel, in the US and the world). With the current constituency of the Republican Party and US conservatism in general, do you see that changing?
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuseany man who could sit in Rev. Wrights church for 20 years is no friend of Jews ...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo what? Jews will still give Obama 90% of their votes no matter how much he sells Israel down the river. Obama knows this. When will American Jews realize that Dems aren't their friends?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBack to 1967 borders, okay if he means post-war 1967 borders!
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"When will American Jews realize that Dems aren't their friends?"
With their reputation for being extra smart, I'm going to say "about five minutes before the African-Americans and Hispanics do."
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