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Obama vs. Netanyahu, Round Three

Barack Obama gave two major policy speeches about the Middle East in quick succession, May 19 and 22; and while he discussed a number of Middle East topics, the Arab-Israeli conflict received the lion’s share of attention. Analysts and politicians who care about the Middle East’s only democratic country (yes, I use that formulation now that Turkey is under AKP control) have excoriated Obama and see Israel in great jeopardy. For example, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich called the speech “a disaster” and said that Obama, in effect, asked Israel “to commit suicide.”

I see things differently and more positively for Israel. My reasoning:

This is Obama’s third gratuitous, unprovoked, and unilateral picking of a fight with Israel. The prior two took place in May 2009 and March 2010. In the one, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton declared an end to Israeli building, even in eastern Jerusalem; in the other, Vice President Joe Biden got (mock-?) outraged when such building did take place.

In all three cases, the fight dwelt on a secondary issue that few had been focused on — Israeli building in the first two cases and the June 4, 1967, ceasefire lines as the basis for a permanent border agreement — until Obama turned them into headlines.

Obama’s picking a fight led in all cases to an immediate hardening of positions by both Israelis and Palestinians. Israelis retreated, wounded, disinclined to make concessions, while Palestinians added Obama’s demands, Jerusalem and the 1967 lines, to their prior list of demands of Israel.

When Obama realized his mistake — that Israeli governments make concessions more readily when relations with Washington are strong, and that Palestinians need to be pressured, not coddled — he crawled back to the Israeli prime minister, making nice as though nothing had happened. This has occurred twice already, in September 2009 and July 2010. The Washington Post’s Dana Milbank used choice language to describe the latter episode, describing a “routed and humiliated” Obama in a White House flying “the white flag of surrender.” 

I predict that a “routed and humiliated” Obama will regret his ill-chosen fight over the 1967 lines and, if he follows his prior schedule, should be crawling back to the prime minister in about four months’ time, or September 2011.

In conclusion: As someone opposed to Arab-Israeli negotiations while war is underway and to Obama’s presidency, I take solace in his making a hash of diplomacy and politics. This way, Israel is less likely to make more counterproductive “painful concessions” and, with a slew of former Obama supporters abandoning him, Obama has hurt his chances for reelection.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   18

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   05/24/11 09:28

Obama's stance on Israel doesn't surprise me in the least. His people (academics, union thugs, marxists, community organizers) are among the most anti-Israel, pro-Palestinian people in the world. Their marches and protests are almost always accompanied by Palestinian flags and Che T-shirts. Had Obama not aspired to higher office, would he not have been among them? Intellectually, I think he already is.

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   05/24/11 09:30

Except that it's obvious from this round that Obama did not, in fact, "learn his lesson."

And I have trouble believing it's better for Israel. I do tend to agree that the entire peace process is a farce, and so it's unfortunate for Israel that they have to keep making those "painful concessions" so as not be be seen as the unreasonable party by the "world community." On the other hand, Obama's actions are moving the range of what is regarded as "reasonable concessions" by Israel, assuring that the price of continuing to pass Europe's reasonableness test will be vastly more painful concessions in the future.

In other words, this is an improvement only if one believes Israel is ultimately doomed, and we're only wrangling over how much longer it can survive.

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robraf
   05/24/11 09:41

Great to see Dennis Prager has been added to the Corner. Welcome aboard, Dennis!

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sean spoonts
   05/24/11 10:17

Just two points I think should have been made here.

1) The election of Obama was supposedly a press of the 'reset button' in terms of international relations. President Obama was supposed to be so smart, so wise, so capable of nuance that all our foreign policy woes were going to just disappear and America would enjoy a new era of international cooperation, brotherhood and friendship. Yet, every time Obama makes a statement on foreign policy, there are the giant gaffs and misstatements that Hilary contradicts, or the administration has to walk back after everybody starts screaming. How clumsy and inept can these people be?

2) Haven't we learned that America has to be very careful about what it says in the mid-east? That America has to be very direct and precise when it comes to talking about places like Isreal, Lebanon, Kuwait and Iraq? We've made ambigious statements regarding all these countries and the result has been aggression, invasion and bloodshed.

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onlineanalyst
   05/24/11 10:25

Carolyn Glick's May 24 posting spells out the extent that Obama's speech was deliberately provocative and where his sympathies lie.
External Link 

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   05/24/11 10:30

Obama hasn't hurt his chances one bit. He's in more danger of losing the black vote and the state of Hawaii than he is the Jewish vote. 80% of American Judasim votes hardcare anti-Republican. They see the GOP as the party of Christianity, and there is a lot of anti-Christian sentiment out there, especially among the secular Jewish majority, oddly enough.

For many Jews, Israel is barely on the radar, even less than say, USA-Italy relations specifically are for Italian-Americans (less because American Jews have no historical ties to Israel). For many others, the J-Street types, Israel is a bete noire.

As for the minority conservative Jewish bloc, they were already on the GOP side anyway. Obama can't hurt himself with that group and he has helped himself with the J-Street types.

And for the premillennial dispensationalist evangelicals eager to see Israel rise so that it can meet a fiery doom and usher in a rapturous age of 144,000 lucky winners, they too were already out of Obama's reach and this won't hurt any with them.

No, Obama has made a cynical calculation here, correctly. As long as the vast majority of American Judaism, like black America, remains unthinking reflexive Democrats, this is how they can expect to be treated by the party.

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   05/24/11 10:56

As a Christian supporter of Israel who does not remotely fit into Patrick J's narrow minded description of us - "premillennial dispensationalist evangelicals eager to see Israel rise so that it can meet a fiery doom and usher in a rapturous age of 144,000 lucky winners" - I say, it sounds like you know what you're talking about, but it would be good to keep a little more fluid in your assessment.

First off, Obama's statement did cross a line, even for the normally liberal Democratic Jewish community. They may be willing to place nice and give Obama room to backtrack, but damage was done to Obama even among American Jews.

Sunday I was among family members who have known for the past 20 something years of my commitment to Israel and it has never been something they wanted to talk about. This day, however, the people who have been least interested asked me what I thought of Obama's statement about Israel and then proceeded to tell me at length how horrified they were with the betrayal.

My shock was a good one. It tells me that there are many others out there that were never inclined to get involved in the issue until Obama crossed this line. Obama blew it and I don't believe for a second that he "cynically calculated" his blunder.

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   05/24/11 11:13

I've heard numerous anti-Israel types deride pro-Israel Christians as being premillennial dispensationalist evangelicals eager to see Israel rise so that it can meet a fiery doom," but I've never actually met someone holding this view. Conservatives tend to like Israel because it's a small democratic country constantly defending itself against its larger autocratic neighbors.

I guess Patrick J just knows more conservative evangelicals than I do.

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   05/24/11 11:15

I would say this ... not all American Jews are rich fat cats ... in fact I would venture to bet that the great majority of them are hard working middle and upper middle class workers and business people ... and many of them have relations in Israel ...
They will most definately not appreciate Obama putting Israel on the defensive yet again ...

Its one thing to try and stand in the middle of a dispute, taking positions from both sides of the debate and trying to find a middle ground ...

What Israeli position has Obama embraced ? No negotiations with terrorists ... and then he pushes for negotionation with people that are allied with said terrorit organizations ... you can't do both ...

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   05/24/11 11:15

We'll see, Donna. No Democrat ever went broke overestimating the complacency of Jewish or black supporters or their sympathizers for being taking for granted. We'll see if this one time is different. I take it BTW that as a "Christian supporter of Israel" you weren't remotely close to being likely to vote for Obama even before this, so this changes nothing, as was my point?

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   05/24/11 12:39

I am amazed that Obama keeps poking a stick in Israel's eye, and in such a cloddish fashion.

Natanyahu was just on TV addressing congress -- he gives much better speeches than Obama ever has!

I have always been trying to figure out if Obama is "the Manchurian Candidate" or "Chance the Gardener" -- lately I keep coming to the conclusion it's the latter.

In other words: he has no "big plan", he's just demagoging everything for domestic partisan purposes (he ONLY cares about getting elected and being the Popular Guy) -- which from a "global view" often looks incompetent.

Yet he has a kind of charm which works on some people (the Hopey Changey Lightbringer types who desperately want to believe that "they are the ones they have been waiting for" haha! And evangelicals are supposed to be the ones who believe in crazy fairy tales that don't make sense . . . )

And also there are plenty of folks in the world who want America to fail, and therefore cheer Obama on even though they can see right through him.

As for Israel: I would agree "peace negotiations" in the current context are meaningless, so the fact that Obama is throwing a monkey wrench into the process is quite OK. Both sides will harden their positions, and "negotiations" will go nowhere.

Until the Hamas vs. Fatah fight concludes, I don't think there's any point to negotiating anyway (Hamas won't negotiate with Israel under any circumstances, and Fatah is probably going to lose the civil war against Hamas -- so anything negotiated with Fatah is ultimately going to be voided by Hamas anyway.)

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   05/24/11 12:46

Four months?! How about four days? Obama's AIPAC speech was an almost immediate retreat when he declared that what we thought we heard was not what he said, and in any event it was not what he meant either.

Bebe is schooling Obama to cheers in Congress. The American people know who the bad guys are in the middle east, and a great many Americans have died at the hands of the same people who want to exterminate Jews and their nation.

This won't take four months, and I think the retreat has already started.

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   05/24/11 13:20

"his making a hash of "

Pretty much sums up everything Obama has tried to do.

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   05/24/11 13:26

Patrick J: Donna's disagreement was with your description of why many Christians support Israel. Not with you analysis of how this would influence the next presidential election.

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   05/24/11 16:02

Right on, Mark W. Some people just ignore the obvious and press on with the condescending tone.

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wayne
   05/24/11 16:24

I'm sorry to say this Dennis, but I don't think that Obama's latest comments on Israel will hurt him...at least not any more than they might have done several years ago.

Obama's view of Israel has not changed and NO ONE who has paid any attention at all to him was surprised by what was done here. We expected Obama to publicly humilliate Bibi. The only blessing was that Bibi had the fortitude to slap him back. Bibi could probably get elected next week as President if he could run as a Republican.

That being said, no significant supporter of Obama is going to desert Obama over Israel. The secular Jews dumped Israel long ago - about three seconds after they discovered that most Evangelicals support Israel. ANYTHING Evangelicals support must be destroyed by secular Jews...as far as they are concerned we are the same as Nazi's and must be opposed at every turn.

Evangelicals almost universally oppose Obama and because of that one fact alone, maybe the single most supportive ethnic group in America Obama has are secular Jews (even more than blacks - some of who virulantly oppose Obama for a whole host of reasons left and right).

Nope, I'm sorry to say that Obama lost nothing here. He smartly calculated that this was all good and in the end he will unfortunately turn out to be right.

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Fred123456
   05/24/11 16:33

One redeeming feature about the Fraud-in-Chief is that he is also an anti-Midas type (everything he touches turns to excrement), so his eventual self-destruction is pretty close to guaranteed. We just need to help the process along, and bring hotdogs and marshmallows for the bonfire to come.

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Boris Stern
   05/24/11 17:40

I don't agree with Mr.Prager on everything,but this time he is on the mark. Very good assessment Mr.Prager !

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