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Wonk on a White Horse

If Paul Ryan got in the race, he would be my first choice for president. But, as I suggest in my column today, I don’t think that’s the only reason he should get in the game. The NY-26 race will be wildly over-interpreted by the press and the Democrats as a death-blow to Ryan and the GOP budget. But that interpretation may well have a self-fulfilling aspect to it. You can be sure that the Democrats will only intensify their MediScare tactics.

If you think that’s a huge problem, Ryan getting in the race might be the best possible option. Because by getting in, Ryan would allow the rest of the field to differentiate themselves from Ryan and the House budget. Most of the contenders would have to differentiate themselves from Ryan while also coming up with more serious entitlement-reform plans of their own than they might otherwise.

Let’s assume Ryan gets in and loses and, say, Tim Pawlenty wins the nomination. After “pushing off” from Ryan in the primaries, Pawlenty would be far better situated to tell Obama in the general, “Look, you’re running against Paul Ryan. He’s not on this stage. I am. I beat Paul Ryan. Deal with me and my ideas.”

In many ways, if Ryan doesn’t run we’ll have a similar problem to the one we had in 2008. There was no stand-in for Bush in the primaries, so there was nobody the candidates could differentiate themselves from in order to be the “not-Bush” or “anti-Bush” candidate. By the time McCain won the nomination, Obama could claim that electing McCain would amount to a third Bush administration. Without Ryan, the man of the moment, in the race, and without an obvious stand-in for him, the Republicans will be saddled with the Ryan plan whether they endorse it or not. And that means Obama will be able to run against a demonically caricatured Ryan instead of the actual nominee.

Now, I’d like to think that there are bigger advantages to Ryan getting in than that. I think he could go all the way. I think he’s as close as we’ll ever get to an “Obama” candidate this year — a charismatic guy who taps into something in the zeitgeist and can articulate it in a compelling way. He’s certainly the only guy out there who can sell the Path to Prosperity. I’d like to think that if he got in the race, he’d win the primary and then take the fight to Obama. But that’s all hypothetical at this point. We’ll never know for sure if he doesn’t throw his hat in.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   16

EXPAND  

   05/25/11 09:51

I don't know about Jonah's paragraph's 3-5, but I want Ryan in the race because he's the most contrarian "NO!" to the Obama ideology. We are beyond the Oval Office turning of the economic dials to fix this mess.

If economic catastrophe is unavoidable, and I'm with Thomas Sowell on that one, then we need a leader to steer us into the fight of Kant v. Locke, Chambers v. Rand, Lincoln v. Calhoun, Jaffa v. Rhenquist. Is that Ryan? I don't know, but everyone other Pawlenty (whom I don't know) seems so far from that.

But if the choice is Romney-care v. Obama-care, well then let's let everyone have the best possible view of the abyss (Obama). Perhaps that will teach us that there is still something worth fighting against...and for. And if we don't understand that...well then who cares, really?

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Mastik8
   05/25/11 10:13

Ryan would look great on a coin or bill.

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   05/25/11 10:21

yes, but . . . . as good as he is he is a fiscal guy only. He can bone up on foreign policy, he's certainly smart enough, but guarantee that if he's the nominee, the press will make it a foreign policy election. They will then defer to Obama with all his "vast" 3 1/2 years of experience in foreign policy. Ryan is certainly smarter than Obama, more accomplished than Obama, but he looks younger than Obama. (Obama would be completely incompetent on economic policy, but that will be glossed over.)
I hate to be reactive to the MSM on a candidate but that is the problem (albeit the only problem) i see with Ryan as a nominee. I'd vote for him in a heartbeat, however.

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   05/25/11 10:46

Ryan/Jindal would cream the one. The other possible VP candidate who could assist in said creaming would be Cain, who is very cool, but I'm not sure yet that he is knowledgeable enough. Jindal assuredly is.

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   05/25/11 10:50

If Paul Ryan is the only one able to sell serious thought and hard choices, we're doomed. If he runs, he gives the field an excuse to take the easy road by standing against him. If he's out, he's a useful commentary on the credibility of their proposals -- and on their governance, should they win.

And he is simply too young and inexperienced for the job. And its breadth would distract him from the one thing that he is doing really, really well.

I understand the anxiety of this election, but the real urgency is building up a workable and sound governance. It's going to take a while, and rushing it won't help. If Paul Ryan is really the only chance in 2012, then we should be thinking about how deeply our national politics are broken, and what's needed to fix them.

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   05/25/11 11:09

The beauty of Paul Ryan is that he's got the balls to put forth a serious, politically risky plan unconcerned about his political future. He wants to stay on plan, in the House.That, I believe, is where he can do the most good at this time. This election isn't going to be about foreign policy, or even Medicare per se, but about jobs, inflation and financial security. Obama should be forced to run on his putrid record that everybody is standing up to their necks in. What we don't need is for other Republicans to "go wobbly" on spending and debt and to that end, Ryan should start a side job as an economic tutor to the candidates.

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d.s.
   05/25/11 11:23

Moving toward solvency will lead to economic prosperity AND greater national security--that's how Ryan addresses any perceived foreign policy deficit. Nominating Ryan makes it clear that Republicans understand that a debt crisis is looming and that it is not acceptable for Obama and the media to ignore the fiscal facts. Let's have it out. We can't go with the same old, milquetoast, don't want to commit to a plan for the country, kind of candidate. It undercuts any progress Republicans have made as the "serious" party and alienates the tea party. Is true political leadership so rare that so many don't "get" it when they see it? Ryan is that type of leader and will energize the entire party (establishment and tea party). I agree that he is the closest to an "obama candidate", but his appeal is based on substance and real leadership.

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   05/25/11 11:41

Saying that Ryan has to run is like saying that on the great Chicago Bulls teams, Dennis Rodman needed to score more. Ryan is already hard at work doing something that, like rebounding for a basketball team, is indispensible to success. It is absurd to think that some other candidate, properly briefed and supported by Ryan, cannot champion his plan on the presidential stage. What we need is for a candidate to embrace that role. It cannot be Romney because of his issues with healthcare reform, but anyone else with a sharp mind and a little political courage can do it. Moreover, Ryan's lack of experience -- and arguably, even *interest* -- in foreign policy is a virtual disqualifier in the presidential race. Let the guy keep pulling down his rebounds and playing smothering defense. Running for president is a scorer's game.

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   05/25/11 12:03

Romney was the Bush stand-in in 2008. But even aside from McCain beating back Romney, anyone who followed politics knew that Bush and McCain came from different sections of the party, that they were bitter rivals rather than McCain just being the next Bush, that if you wanted an alternative to Bush you couldn't do better than to vote for McCain, and so on.

But that's the key - anyone who follows politics. Presidential elections are decided by swing voters, many of whom don't pay but the most cursory attention to politics. The 2008 election was a referendum on Bush's party and there was no changing that. That's always the case.

A similar thing is that swing voters always view the party of the White House as the party in power. So massive voter dissatisfaction with Congress in 2007-08 nevertheless led to the already-Democratic Congress seeing big Democratic gains in 2008.

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   05/25/11 12:14

Ryan should run because he is the best candidate (the first choice), but the more important reason for him to run is to let the other GOP candidates criticize his central policy initiative?

So the GOP should undermine the Ryan plan during the primaries, so it can attack Obamacare during the general election. With the result being that the GOP employs the same tactic that has served us so well before - appeal to the moderates by criticizing the real conservatives.

The problem in 2008 was not that Bush wasn't running, it was that his policies were not conservative enough, particularly in his second term. TARP, a new medicare entitlement, No Child Left Behind. Any GOP candidate who runs against the Ryan plan can count on me voting for someone else. And I suspect I will not be alone.

How do you claim to support Ryan on policy, but advocate a Gingrich strategy of attacking that policy to appear more "electable?"

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   05/25/11 12:47

Jonah,

I cant help but disagree with your point about Pawlenty being able to differentiate himself from Paul Ryan if he beat him. John McCain ran as the anti-Bush in 2008 and used the exact same sort of line you did when he told Obama "if you wanted to run against Bush, you should have ran 4 years ago"

It didn't work then and I dont think it will work next time either.

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   05/25/11 13:11

Ryan said earlier that leaders change polls. Leaders change elections, too. Ryan's platform in the house is too small. His ideas--and his articulation--belong on a bigger stage. Running could do that.

Ryan in the race could change the tenor of the whole entitlement debate. I expect that Ryan's Republican opponents wouldn't use demagoguery to advance their positions--whatever these might be. They will have to seriously debate the issues or lose credibility. That's really where we want to be.

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   05/25/11 17:39

Ryan is where he belongs for now. However, if he chose, Romney could sell his plan and I suspect Pawlenty could also.

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   Cato
   05/25/11 19:04

I like Ryan and his plan, but he is certainly not the Obama of the right. Obama was a stealth candidate who is masterful at politics.

About the only things Obama and Ryan have in common is they are both smart and relatively young. Obama, however, was a cipher on policy when he ran, and he was happy to keep it that way.

Look at Obamacare, his greatest (from the left's perspective, and certainly from a historical standpoint) accomplishment. He said he wanted to provide healthcare for all, but he remained enigmatic on how he was going to achieve that. In fact, he outright lied on certain aspects, such as rejecting an individual mandate and single-payer during the campaign, and claiming he would cut costs while insuring millions more. In other words, Obama was willing to say anything to get elected, to promise that we can have our cake and eat it to. He knew that the most important thing was to get in office.

I'm afraid that if Ryan is the candidate or if the GOP candidate embraces his plan, the Dems will demogogue the heck out of the Medicare issue, keeping Obama in power. I know inside-the-Beltway types admire Ryan for being willing to stick his neck out, but it won't matter if Obama is re-elected.

As I've written elsewhere, it reminds me of the Democrats in the '80s, who scored brownie points with the political class by supporting higher taxes to cure the deficit, but lost elections because of it.

I think the prospect of four more years of Obama and all that entails -- the entrenchment of Obamacare, the further receding of American power, the appointment of 3 or more justices, etc. -- means that we don't have the luxury of being righteous losers.

We must win, period. We sure as heck don't need to throw away our best electoral weapon right now, which is the drastic cuts Obamacare makes in Medicare. We used it very successfully in 2010; the Democrats are ever so grateful we are handing it back to them. It's all they got. But it's more than enough for them to win.

So take a lesson from Obama -- let's get into office first. Then we can hash out our plans. We don't have to lie. But we don't have to show all of our cards up front, either.

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   05/25/11 22:56

"Iowa"

(to the song "Africa" by Toto)

She feels all her country's pain tonight
And the weight of all the problems since the loss of '08
She's coming in the Anchorage flight
The moonlit wings reflect the Northern Star that guides her toward us

She stops a young girl along the way
Hoping to find some old forgotten fire or new eeeennnergy
She turns to her a smile and says
"Hurry Guv, we're waitin here for yoooouuuu

Gonna take a lot to take us away from you
There's nothing that a million of us with you could never do
We'll crush the Progs down in Iowa
Gonna take some time to help restore the country's pride

Loud cheers sound out from the Right
Restless for some common-sense and courage and strong leadership
She knows that she must do what's right
Sure as McKinley rises up above her town of Waaasilllaaaa

We seek to heal what's deep inside
Frightened of what the future may hold....

Gonna take a lot to take us away from you
There's nothing that a million of us with you could never do
We'll turn the tide down in Iowa
Gonna give the blood and sweat and tears with all we have...

Hurry girl, we're bravely here for you...

Gonna take a lot to take us away from you
There's nothing that a million of us with you could never do
We'll crush the Progs down in Iowa, We'll turn the tide down in Iowa...
We'll join with her down in Iowa, We wait for you down in Iowa...
God bless the souls down in Iowa..
Gonna fight the fight with Sarah leading all the waaaayyy...

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Division 1
   06/05/11 00:20

RYAN IS THE ONE

He's presidential timber, as has been said

NOBODY ELSE can energize America - the right way

dont mess up please - America will not exist with obama for another 4 years

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