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Pros and Cons on Pawlenty’s Speech

1) I like that Pawlenty would radically reduce the overtaxation of savings and investment. The capital-gains tax, the estate tax, the interest-income tax, and the dividend tax would all be gone. We’d basically have a consumption tax.

2) Corporate tax reform also seems like a good idea, for reasons that will be familiar to NR readers.

3) The 5-percent growth target strikes me as pointless. Setting the target doesn’t make good economic policies any better, or bad ones any good. The target also seems unrealistic. But if it’s just a way of saying that we shouldn’t settle for recent growth rates, I suppose it’s harmless.

4) I don’t see how he can implement his tax-rate proposals without a big increase in the deficit–or spending cuts far beyond any he has proposed.

5) He’s right to want to narrow the Fed’s mandate. But “monetary policy that is focused like a laser on curbing inflation” and promoting “price stability” would not have prevented the formation of any of the bubbles of the last 15 years, at least if he has in mind annual inflation in the 0-2 percent range as his target. It might not even have prevented QE2, as he seems to think. (As I’m the resident pro-QE2 guy here, that’s a good thing in my mind.) And it would be more sensible to narrow the Fed’s mandate to keeping the growth of nominal income stable.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   45

EXPAND  

   06/07/11 14:10

"I don’t see how he can implement his tax-rate proposals without a big increase in the deficit–or spending cuts far beyond any he has proposed."

He can't, of course - he's taking a page right from Rove's "deficits don't matter" book. As always, it's the only winning Republican strategy - you can't sell a plan where you cut taxes for the rich and take away entitlements at the same time, and since every Republican plan seems to require tax cuts for the rich, the only other option you have is to just pretend we'll grow our way out of the deficit. As Ramesh notes, Pawlenty's growth numbers are complete fantasy, total rubbish - I don't believe we've ever had 5% growth for 10 years straight, even back in the libertarian golden age of the late 19th / early 20th century, when federal taxes were almost nonexistent. This "plan" should be laughed at and ridiculed by anyone that is actually serious about reducing the deficit. Of course, if all you care about is cutting taxes for the wealthy, it's your best bet. Watching people's reactions to this will tell you a lot about how serious they actually are about deficit reduction.

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   06/07/11 14:17

"The capital-gains tax, the estate tax, the interest-income tax, and the dividend tax would all be gone. We’d basically have a consumption tax."

I'd dispute the last sentence. We are moving closer and closer to a system where the only forms of income that are taxed are wages and tips--meaning that we basically have a labor tax. The money that one works for is taxed, the money that one does not work for is not taxed. The incentive seems to me to be simple: Work less.

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   06/07/11 15:23

"The incentive seems to me to be simple: Work less:"

I take it you can't grasp the concept that capital works. Any sound economic policy creates an environment where people with access to capital actually employ that capital. What happens next? That capital investment adds to the economic pie and eventually creates more wealth, not less wealth.

That is what we want in this country. We want to be a friendly home to domestic and foreign investment, because it's that very investment that helps secure the jobs of those waiters and waitresses you seem to love so much.

Or, we can make like Europe and be resigned to permanent near double-digit unemployment and a big fat socialized care system - a kind of "spread the misery" system.

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   06/07/11 15:39

** "That is what we want in this country. We want to be a friendly home to domestic and foreign investment, because it's that very investment that helps secure the jobs of those waiters and waitresses you seem to love so much." **

Economic growth helps if:

A) The government sees improvements to its revenue stream thanks to economic growth. Given the size of the tax cuts, and especially the proposed elimination of capital gains, there is no reason to think this will happen.

B) Americans are actually being employed in the jobs created. There is no reason to think this will happen, since Pawlenty does not support more reasonable immigration policies. His campaign website mentions nothing about immigration enforcement or more rational legal immigration policies.

So what you have is economic growth whose only beneficiaries are the owners of the capital.

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   06/07/11 16:00

"and especially the proposed elimination of capital gains, there is no reason to think this will happen"

Every time we have cut capital gains taxes, revenues to the treasury have increased. In fact, during the 2008 debates this is the only question Charlie Gibson posed to Obama when he queried Obama's desire to raise capital gains taxes out of some misplaced desire of fairness.

"So what you have is economic growth whose only beneficiaries are the owners of the capital."

This is an absolutely fascinating comment. I believe you're saying that there have been times in the past where the economy has grown and only people who hold revenue producing financial assets have benefited - is that what you're saying?

The economy is not growing today, or it's growing so anemically its not generating any ancillary benefit; It's just growing enough to keep itself from falling back into an abyss (AKA- Depression).

If the economy was growing at a normal 3-4% pace, EVERYONE would benefit - the rich and the poor, the holders of equities and bonds and those who just clean tables for a living. A rising economic tide raises all boats, despite what the idiotic campaign commercials of the AFL/CIO have to say.

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   06/07/11 16:53

No, everytime we've cut capital gains taxes *revenues from capital gains* taxes have increased. This is not the same as *overall tax receipts.* The economy did not grow faster during the 00s than it did in the 80s and 90s, despite substantially lower cap gains taxes.

Americans need incomes to purchase the goods and services created with capital. Can't buy them if they don't have jobs.

And businesses need the public infrastructure and educated employees created and maintained by government spending. Can't happen if the government doesn't have a revenue stream.

So genius: we've just spent the last decade following a plan more or less similar to what Pawlenty is proposing. So to channel a great Republican: are you better off today than you were a decade ago? Is the nation?

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   06/07/11 16:27

This is the most bass-ackwards understanding of the economy I've ever confronted! As you've formulated it, the purpose of the economy is to create work for the people and money for the government. In reality, these are both necessary evils that we endure to get the real economic benefits: namely goods and services that people want.

The theoretically ideal economy would be one in which everyone gets everything they want, and no one has to do anything to get it. Obviously, that's impossible, both because you can't get something for nothing, and because human ambition can never be completely satisfied. But the quality of the economy can be measured by the degree towards which we approach that ideal. That is why, for example, the fact that people work 40 hour weeks today is an improvement over the economy of the 1890s, when the average was 60-85, depending on who's numbers you believe.

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Nate13
   06/07/11 19:32

"So what you have is economic growth whose only beneficiaries are the owners of the capital."

Why is this to be discouraged? Why is the ownership of capital and the reaping of rewards from it considering a dirty taboo?

You know what happens in a truly unhindered free market? If the only ones who benefit are the owners of capital, then people (ie. the waiters, the airline pilots, the doctors, the janitors, etc.) will start to buy capital, won't they?

God forbid we as a society stop buying $70,000 trucks that lose half their value as you drive them off the lot! God forbid that the so-called "working poor" lay off the flat screens, cigarettes, booze, and other unnecessary luxuries and start buying stocks, mutal funds, bonds, and other investments!

The country (and western society as a whole) would be a lot better off if people could figure out how to live under their means and invest the difference, rather than above their means and borrowing the difference.

But I'm entitled to all my luxury perks! My welfare check should cover my stupid spending habits! Let those greedy "owners of the capital" pay the bill... right, Comrade?

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   06/07/11 14:29

Have to agree with Greetings Earthling's post. What Pawlenty and other Republican pols increasingly support is a tax on the middle class (taxes on wages and salaries, purchases, and property) but not the earnings of the wealthy. I'm a lifelong Republican, have contributed to several Republican campaigns, and have even donated to NR fundraisers, but I cannot and will not support a Republican Party or candidate who supports shifting the tax burden to the middle class while slashing taxes on the wealthy.

I suppose Pawlenty's argument is that tax cuts would stimulate job creation, but because of the tax cuts the government would see no new revenue to reduce the deficit, and, because of Republican support of mass immigration, the new jobs would not necessarily go to US citizens. Employers would have no incentive to raise wages in tight labor markets, because they would no longer even exist.

I'm a conservative, but a middle class conservative who supports these types of policies is a fool. I'd sooner vote to re-elect Obama.

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 RTP
   06/07/11 15:53

Seriously? You'd vote to re-elect Obama, who will raise taxes on the middle income types, the upper income types, and anything else he can?

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   06/07/11 16:45

I don't find the results of a non-conservative Republican administration to be substantially more desireable than the results of an Obama Administration.

See: President George W. Bush, 2001-2009

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   06/07/11 16:43

The entire framework of this comment is counterproductive. Tax policy should not be rooted in choosing winners and loosers, a/k/a class warfare. It should be rooted in an attempt to figure out what is the least destructive means for the government to collect the necessary amount of revenue. I see no particular reason to regard the middle class as especially sacrosanct, nor deserving particular indulgence. Almost every form of taxation is going to impose more costs on one group than another. The question is: Upon what basis will we choose?

Ideally, since raising the price of something reduces its consumption, the government would get all of its revenue from excise taxes--that is, taxes on products or services that, as a policy matter, we wouldn't mind seeing reduced or eliminated. For example, instead of banning drugs and prostitution, we might just impose very large taxes on them. The fact that such taxes would be "regressive" wouldn't trouble me in the least.

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   06/07/11 14:47

It seems to me that nobody who wants to get elected is going to tell the hard truths that the American people need to hear about the sorry state of our country's balance sheet and income statement. For the eventual winner, that will probably not occur until after the election. President Obama gets this and has positioned himself accordingly, and now so has Tim Pawlenty. It's really a shame that this situation exists, but it is what it is. As every day passes, it becomes increasingly likely that it will be the currency market that shares the hard truths with the American people.

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   06/07/11 15:27

"It seems to me that nobody who wants to get elected is going to tell the hard truths that the American people..."

Practical political realities are what they are. The moment a GOP presidential candidate says, "Hey, we might have to eventually look at more creative ways to generate revenue to balance this budget and help pay-down this enormous debt", is the day their campaign ends.

Eventually, taxes are either going to be raised by raising rates, or closing loopholes (or probably both), but that's not going to be talked about in any campaign, and it's certainly not going to be discussed until draconian cuts in spending are made.

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   06/07/11 15:11

Wow, can't remember ever thinking a candidate wanted too big of a tax cut. But two points that may make this more reasonable than it sounds at first glance. First of all, it gives him some negotiating room if he gets elected. But more importantly, I wonder how much of the revenue impact from reduced rates would be counterbalanced by eliminating credits, deductions, etc. Actually taxing everything at the 10% and 25% rates Pawlenty proposes might even be a tax increase if you got rid of all the credits and deductions.

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   06/07/11 15:20

>"The 5-percent growth target strikes me as pointless. Setting the target doesn’t make good economic policies any better, or bad ones any good. The target also seems unrealistic. But if it’s just a way of saying that we shouldn’t settle for recent growth rates, I suppose it’s harmless."

Call me an anarchist, but I don't see why the growth rate of the economy falls under the jurisdiction of the federal government. What happens if the economy fails to grow at 5%? We institute a Five Year Plan?

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 Fred
   06/07/11 15:21

The Fed does not know how to keep the growth of nominal income stable so it would be extremely unwise to have that as a policy target. Nor, for the record, does anyone else as it is a mix of real and nominal variables.

Focus on roughly maintaining a stable price level. This would be a big contribution to economic stability and is, by the way, about the only thing that any central bank has ever shown any ability to do.

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   06/07/11 15:45

Nominal income isn't a mix of real and nominal variables; it's a nominal variable. It's easier to calculate reliably than inflation rates. And during the Great Moderation, the Fed kept its growth pretty stable.

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   06/07/11 16:00

Re: the big problem with the capital-gains tax is that the assumed underlying investments in capital producing industries are illusions.

Most capital gains come from moving electrons around the secondary and tertiary equity, commodity and currency trading markets. It's merely economic churn that the underlying companies never see. There is no investment in manpower and machinery to provide tangible products and services.

You can lower the capital gains tax all you want, but the way the Ponzi Scheme U.S. financial infrastructure is set up the benefactors only be the investment banks and the hedge funds swapping exotic derivatives with absolutely no intrinsic value.

P.S. While Joe Sixpack gets hammered by the IRS.

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   06/07/11 16:16

"There is no investment in manpower and machinery to provide tangible products and services."

Good Lord, is the importance of the capital and bond markets on both big and small business - you know, the businesses that "Joe Sixpack" actually works for - completely lost on you?

You're saying just because there literally isn't a guy moving wheel-barrels of money around Manhattan, Joe Sixpack doesn't benefits from strong financial markets and favorable investment conditions. It's LUDICROUS.

Every business on the planet - even those that are cash-flush - is dependent on a well-functioning and robust investment environment. If working capital becomes so scares, it's out of reach of average small businessmen, then those businesses, including their "Joe Sixpack" employees suffer, or perhaps even close up shop altogether.

Please, do yourself a favor and stop reading your union propaganda.

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