Although it’s too soon to fully understand what they mean, there are important developments in Egypt today in the run-up to this fall’s election. First, a major coalition of parties has formed that includes not only the Muslim Brotherhood, but two key liberal parties, Wafd and Ghad. The coalition also includes a left leaning Nasserist (Arab nationalist) party, Karama, and the socialist Tagammu party. At the same time, a there is talk of yet another coalition of liberal and socialist parties forming to oppose the first coalition, given that it seems to be dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood.
What is going on here? We can only speculate at this point, but it looks as though the strength of the Muslim Brotherhood has allowed it to coopt the core of its opposition. This assures weak non-Islamist parties of some representation, while also providing the Brotherhood with protection against backlash from the military or the United States, should it dominate the coming election. Yet the new coalition likely puts the Brotherhood in position to control an only nominally diverse parliament.
Many of the most prominent leftist and Nasserist parties are already in the Brotherhood-dominated coalition. That would leave a second, more purely secular coalition weak. On the other hand, if non-Islamist Egyptians are alarmed by the Brotherhood’s rising power, they could turn a possible counter-coalition into a significant force.
For now, however, it seems as though the Muslim Brotherhood has moved to coopt its opposition, and therefore has an excellent chance of exercising de facto control over the new parliament, with appropriate cover. The one thing that brings together Egypt’s liberals, leftists, and Islamists is foreign policy. So expect a Brotherhood-dominated coalition to be less than entirely friendly to the United States and Israel.
One of the only positive developments here is that the start of actual party maneuvering may force the Western press to start talking openly about socialist and Arab-nationalist parties. The media’s current characterization of nearly all non-Islamist groups as “secular liberals” is deeply misleading.
We can expect the brotherhood to take the security portfolios in government, and to take over everything in some future crisis.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don't see how you can come to the conclusion that the MB is so powerful that, not only would it win the election, but also that the coalition will be dominated by them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere have been four respectable polls so far. The International Peace Institute, IRI and Pew all found the liberal Wafd was the most popular party, with only Gallup finding the MBs had the most support of any party. But even there, the percentage was far less than the united secular parties (Wafd, Democractic Front, Ghad, Tagammu etc).
Polls also indicate a greater support of the US over Iran, whilst they also indicated more support for a presidential candidate that continued peace with Israel. Indeed, Egyptians were found in a recent survey to be the most peaceful in the world and the most tolerant of religious differences in the Middle East. As for any minister having the remotest control over the military, dream on. The military has, and always will, make their own decisions, no matter who is in place. Expect that to be enshrined in law in the new constitution too.
Will this mean a change for Egypt's relationship with Israel and the Palestinians? Absolutely. Quite right too as Israel has been in violation of UN treaties for decades. That doesn't make Egypt an outcast. Instead it merely brings them into the opinion most of the world has.
Expect this coalition to last a year or two but enough to bring in an inclusive constitution and a fair voting system. Then the politics will start.