I’ve been wondering for a long time about the prospect that China will sooner or later follow the Japanese experience, namely, that state-capitalism will crash, as it did in Japan around 1990. Japan still hasn’t really recovered. Like so many experts in the 1980s who used straight-line projections to show that Japan’s economy would overtake the United State by, well, about right now, China’s projected future growth may not pan out according to the current trend line. CNBC offers a good analysis of exactly this prospect today.
Meanwhile, in what might seem like a mission deep behind enemy lines, I’m spending the weekend with a bunch of liberals trying to reassess their intellectual position at a conference in Marin County. I know, that sounds like a parody, but it’s deeply serious and perhaps even somewhat promising.