All this is assuming that we care about the debt, and there is any other course of action apart from default.

We are in worse shape than Greece, and there is no Germany/France/EU to keep applying the band-aid.

We are way past any tipping point, the only open question is the timing and format of default.

Letting the Bush tax cuts expire will bring in little if any new money. Any extra income taxes will be compensated for by the loss of taxes in other areas as the economy slows even further.

BTW, you are aware that the Bush tax cuts affected everyone, not just the rich. The percentage of the income tax paid by the non-rich decreased after the taxes went into affect.

Not even the CBO believes that ObamaCare saves even a penny. Most of the savings was caused by starting the taxes immediately but not starting up the outlays for 7 to 10 years. Makes the first decade look good, but it's death after that.

Not implementing the Doc Fix will save lots of money. As most of the remaining doctors quit the medicare system, the cost of that system will rapidly approach zero.

The CBO is required by law to assume that the economy will not react to any changes in tax laws.

So yes, when projecting how much revenue will change when tax laws are changed, the CBO is always wrong.

The CBO's analysis of ObamaCare indicated that the so called long term savings existed in the minds of advocates only.

"there should also be savings over the long term, particularly if the IPAB is allowed to operate as planned."

I'm sure be there will be. Why, exactly, should we trust the "planners" with our health? What do you *really* think the IPAB will do to save money?

Port - I'm sorry I can't keep reading what you are writing. There is lot I don't like about Ryan's plan, in that it doesn't go far enough but to suggest it embraces the same rationing features as Obamacare is a joke. You see in Ryan's plan, you get to add your own money to the pie. In Obamacare, 15 bureaucrats create an index table of age/condition matrixes and decides whether you will get treated. It has nothing to do with reimbursements. What will happen is doctors will quit seeing Obamacare patients. In Obamacare you will wait long periods of time for ever less available services. Just like Medicare today, which providers are dropping rapidly - only 58% of GP will see Medicare patients now. My parents are beginning to find some inability to find treatment because no one will take them as a patient.

CBO took the revenue from a decade of taxes in Obamacare and laid them over only 6 years of benefits, that along with the doc fix, that was already unfixed, was the basis for the savings. Read those portions of the bill. The bill was written by democrats to force the CBO to forecast a savings. The chief actuary of CMS has already testified that Obamacare will cost more than if we had done nothing. Its cost once fully implemented in 2025 has been estimated at $2.5 Trillion. That is a low estimate. We just learned the medicaid provisions with a new definition of SS income adds another $500B to the pie. I figure we will be at 4 trillion before 2030.

You really need to get out more.

@ Gnomer

First, lol. It seems you've confused a comments section with a grad paper.

Second, let's use a bit of logic. For Ryan's plan to save money of course it has to cut Medicare, that's how it saves money. It pays out premium support of (X), but healthcare costs are rising at (X+Y).

Obamacare (and other forms of socialized medicine) or more direct, they assign a comitte to look at costs, and decide what will be covered.

Either way care will in some form be rationed because we live in a world of limited resources, and almost unliminted wants.

If we keep some type of government supported healthcare (like Medicare) the following will probably have to happen

ending heroic end of life care

raising the age requirments and indexing them to life expectancy

Plus hopefully some type of mechanism that ties premiums into lifestyle choices

as for my credibility, I'm an economist, I've also taken part in projects looking at getting CA on a sustainable path for healthcare (not that our advice was heeded of course)

What's even more depressing than the economic outlook for our country, is the "head in the sand" attitude of many Americans who don't understand the dire consequences of the entitlement status quo or choose to ignore those consequences.

Americans who don't get it are like spoiled children in a toy store who want the expensive toys their parents can't afford, who throw temper tantrums when told they can't have the toys they want because there is no money to pay for them. We can't expect politicians to fix what's broken if we threaten to throw a temper tantrum when we don't like the fix.

That is why the only scenario is default. Debts that can't be paid, won't be.

Nobody likes or agrees to the solutions (which, btw, are not mysteries) - raise taxes and/or cut spending.

We'll keep borrowing and spending until the lenders say, "No Mas". No more.

We won't stop spending until the lenders stop lending.

Watch the debt ceiling compromise - the politicians and the media will crow about a combination of taxes (revenue enhancements) and spending (from projected levels, not actual spending). All tax increases will be immediate and real, all spending cuts will be 5-10 years down the road and from projected levels. In the meantime, we will add another $1.5-2 Trillion to the debt. In the next year alone. (And that does not even include the off-the-books liabilities.)

"Americans who don't get it are like spoiled children in a toy store who want the expensive toys their parents can't afford, who throw temper tantrums when told they can't have the toys they want because there is no money to pay for them. We can't expect politicians to fix what's broken if we threaten to throw a temper tantrum when we don't like the fix."

And that's why the fix is not merely fiscal, it is moral and social. The reason Americans don't get it is because they were reared in those same homes--and the parents caved.