There’s no question that President Obama inherited an economy in really bad shape. However, many prominent Democrats, including Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin and DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, acknowledge that two and a half years into his first term, the president now owns the economy. Unfortunately for him, the economy isn’t doing well. That’s why the president last week called on Congress to pass a series of spending measures that he said would boost the economy, including more infrastructure spending and an extension of the payroll tax cut for another year.
With this in mind, I thought it would be interesting to update my chart on the level of stimulus spending and unemployment rates since 2009.

This chart is based on the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Center for Data Analysis. The administration’s promise that the ARRA bill would keep unemployment rates from reaching 8.8 percent and would create some 3 million jobs — 90 percent of them in the private sector — did not materialize.
The unemployment rate started at 7.6 percent when President Obama took office and peaked at 10.2 percent in October 2009. Since the enactment of the stimulus bill in February 2009, the unemployment rate has not approached pre-ARRA levels again, even though $382 billion has been made available by government departments and agencies (on top the tax credits and other tax-related items). In fact, unemployment has recently edged up, from 9 percent in April to 9.1 percent in May.
Based on this data, it is hard to make the case that doing more of the same would help the economy. Paul Krugman, however, disagrees and argues that these results are the product of a stimulus that was too small. I am not sure what stimulus would be large enough for Mr. Krugman. What we know for sure is that so far we have spent $666 billion (which adds much to our debt) yet unemployment remains above 9 percent, and that even under the rosiest of assumptions (2.4 million jobs created), each of these jobs cost $278,000 (see here).
Stanford University’s John Taylor argues that the stimulus failed because, although much money was spent, very little money was spent in the form of actual government purchase. In a paper with John Cogan, he finds that, out of the total $682 billion package, federal infrastructure spending was $0.9 billion in 2009 and $1.5 billion through the first half of 2010 — that’s less than four-tenths of one percent. The tax-cut money was saved, and the money that went to the states was mainly used to reduce their reliance on borrowing and other “non-purchase” items (transfer payments, subsidies, and interest payments). So, basically, more money going to the states and going to taxpayers in the form of tax credits wouldn’t change a thing.
Sustainable job creation comes from the private sector; true stimulus legislation is that which creates a stable, low-regulatory regime that will enable businesses to hire workers in sustainable jobs, jobs that will last long after stimulus funds have run out.
I'm pinching from O Henry here.
Obama is the "Blackjack Bargainer". Having done "Stimulus", and gotten no results, and having relied on Statism purely to grow the government's share of the economy, he's splitting his 2 threes and doubling down on statism.
I've gotten to the point where I find it logical that Obama agrees that his defeat is likely. And he simply needs to insure that he's transformed enough of our country by then, assured from history that rolling back government's expansion is like putting the continents back together.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama, being a Democrat and a liberal and a socialist, is a one-trick pony. Tax & spend. This is where you take buckets of water from one end of the pool, pour off 10-20% for administrative costs, and dump the remainder in the other end of the pool. If the water level in the pool refuses to rise, you run more buckets back and forth, faster and faster, until it does.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAny chance of re-doing the chart with the absolute number employed, rather than the unemployment rate? I always find that more informative, as the unemployment rate can change just because the labor participation rate changes.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama inherited an economy that was in a business cycle recession enhanced by a burst housing bubble. It was nothing that the business cycle could not have worked itself out of had Democrat congress and Obama not intervened. We would be growing at 3-4 percent if not more had the massive debt caused by the stimulus, and the uncertainty caused by Obamacare and federal regulations not come about. This is an Obama-Reid-Pelosi stagnation.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse1 - Obama "inherited" a bad economy like a cheatin' husband "inherits" a case of herpes from the local floozy. Obama voted for TARP, and was one of them thar "community organizers" behind the government's meddling in the mortage industry. He is as much to "blame" as anybody else in D.C. The "inherited" line is a crock. He inherited bupkus.
2 - If you dig into the Krugman archives a bit, you'll find his "go for broke" stimulus was $600B...$287B less than what actually passed. I had the link for a long time, and used it as a club to beat one of my left-wing MBA professors to death in an online seminar. It's a relatively short post from The Krugman, but highly entertaining in hindsight.
3 - The folks who point out that the stimulus failed, in part, because the Government did not buy anything...are somewhat correct. Most of "The Stimulus" was a gigantic transfer payment to keep Government employees at the State level working. No capital was purchased, and no things of value were created and sold.
Had the U.S. Government bought many, many tanks and planes with it, the effect may have been different. However, it is an immutable fact that even if the Government had bought a lot of actual stuff, the Government would almost certainly have bought The Wrong Stuff. You know, like "green lightbulbs" and "General Motors Cars and Trucks"...things nobody really wants. So, the fabled "multiplier effect" would still have not been greater than 1.0.
Also, had the Government bought "actual stuff", a whole lot of it would not have been Made in the U.S.A...defeating the purpose of The Stimulus...unless paying back China was the real purpose.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusethe Government did not buy anything
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They bought GM.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI said the Government did not buy anything of value! haha.
But seriously, the Government did not buy any cars and trucks. The Government bought GM's debt...mostly pension and healthcare liabilities...and has had 4 CEO changes since the Government takeover. More transfer payments.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell actually...
"There’s no question that President Obama inherited an economy in really bad shape."
Usually we apply this 'inherited' label to an elected President who comes from Outside Washington. Obama was a Senator in the Beltway who voted for so many items which helped undermine the economy - especially his supporting his Party's enabling of the disaster within Fannie/Freddie/HUD/etc. Obama has a great deal of responsibility for the fiasco, prior to his Presidential failures.
One can easily make the case, had the Bush Administration gotten all it wanted, without Democrats blocking their sound policy reform offerings, we simply would not be in this mess.
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