Secure America Now has just released a new poll showing that only 43 percent of Jews plan to vote to reelect Obama in 2012. If this holds, it would be a considerable drop from the 78 percent of the Jewish vote Obama received in 2008, and from the standard 75–80 percent of the Jewish vote that Democratic political strategists have come to expect and rely upon.
The bipartisan poll, done by John McLaughlin and Pat Caddell, also found that Obama is likely to have particular trouble with Jews in the all-important state of Florida, as only 34 percent of Florida’s Jews would vote to reelect him. Unsurprisingly, Obama does better among Jews in blue states like California, Illinois, and Maryland, but Republican strategists are unlikely to contest those states heavily, whereas the Florida vote really matters.
In addition, in a positive sign for the future, Obama’s worst showing in the poll was among Jews under 40. Sixty-one percent of these younger Jews reported that they planned to vote for someone other than Obama for president in 2012. This could indicate that the strange and continuing hold that the Democratic party has had over American Jews could finally be loosening. This latest poll is bad news for Obama in the short term, and problematic for the Democrats in the long term as well.