Secure America Now has just released a new poll showing that only 43 percent of Jews plan to vote to reelect Obama in 2012. If this holds, it would be a considerable drop from the 78 percent of the Jewish vote Obama received in 2008, and from the standard 75–80 percent of the Jewish vote that Democratic political strategists have come to expect and rely upon.
The bipartisan poll, done by John McLaughlin and Pat Caddell, also found that Obama is likely to have particular trouble with Jews in the all-important state of Florida, as only 34 percent of Florida’s Jews would vote to reelect him. Unsurprisingly, Obama does better among Jews in blue states like California, Illinois, and Maryland, but Republican strategists are unlikely to contest those states heavily, whereas the Florida vote really matters.
In addition, in a positive sign for the future, Obama’s worst showing in the poll was among Jews under 40. Sixty-one percent of these younger Jews reported that they planned to vote for someone other than Obama for president in 2012. This could indicate that the strange and continuing hold that the Democratic party has had over American Jews could finally be loosening. This latest poll is bad news for Obama in the short term, and problematic for the Democrats in the long term as well.
You call this a "bipartisan poll" because Pat Caddell did the poll? Are you serious?
If you want a real nonpartisan poll, you should look at Gallup, which has Obama's approval among Jews as high as ever.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNon-partisan + Gallup? HAHAHAHA.
Are you going to be here all week? That's some great stuff. You're killin' it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOh that's right. To the people here, Gallup is a partisan organization, while Pad Caddell is a real Democrat.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf you look at Gallup's accuracy in national elections, they have favored the Democrat (to their error) in every election since 1980, except for one. And, in that election - 2000 - they overestimated Nader's performance by two whole points. IOW, they picked the even further left candidate.
My favorite Gallup blowup was when they had Carter overvalued by three points, and Reagan undervalued by almost 4-points - a 7-point swing. How is that possible by a competent pollster? It's not - not unless it was intentional.
There are reliable pollsters, and there are even reliable Democrat pollsters, but Gallup is neither reliable nor non-partisan.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGood news.
The overarching question is when does the Democrat Party as a whole accept that Obama is costing them major chunks of several once-reliable base demographics?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLet's hope for "never".
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe poll is obviously skewed in at least one way: While Troy reports that 78% of Jews voted for Obama in 2008, of the respondents in this poll only 65% voted for him.
Secure America Now, the organization that conducted this poll, wouldn't have intentionally skewed it in any way, I'm sure....
:-)
P.S. And of course, it should go without saying that the very structure of the poll is skewed. There was an option for "vote for Obama," and one for "consider someone else," but no option for "vote for someone else" (or "vote for the Republican nomninee"). Obviously, not all of those "considering" a vote for someone else will vote against Obama, but the results (and Troy's quick summation of them) are designed to suggest that Obama would only get 43% of this (obviously skewed) sample. Nice try....
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWith respect, Tevi, you keep posting on this subject, but it's just a dream. American Jews are not going to desert Obama in any significant way.
You might have something to go on with regard to Florida, where marginal swings in a few counties might have a cumulative effect. But at this point it's not the way to bet, and the larger point is wishful thinking.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAgree. They should abandon him as he is the greatest threat to Israel's security from a president in history but they will never abandon the Democratic party no matter what they do.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThere are Republicans that could win a lot more Jewish votes than McCain did. Bachmann, Palin and Cain aren't them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMichele Bachmann got a warm reception at AIPAC and is clearly the most ardent, passionate and sincere supporter of Israel among the GOP hopefuls. She didn't invent this for the campaign - she spent months in Israel as a youth volunteer worker. She's the real deal, and that matters a lot.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDang it, stop calling us a blue state! Chicago is a blue state, the rest of Illinois is a red state! And if we ever get a law passed to require dead people to show photo ID to vote, Illinois would go Republican!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBy my calculations, there are about 11,837 bulldozers in central and southern Illinois, certainly enough to line up and push Chicago into Lake Michigan. There is nothing in physics, scientific law, to prevent this. Therefore, until it happens, Illinois is a blue state.
It's on you, bo.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat's your point? That Illinois is mostly Republican except for all the Democrats that outnumber them?
People who don't vote the way you want them to still count!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'll believe a pro-lifer like Bachman can get 20% against an intensely anit-Israeli lefty like Obama when I see it.
Still, he is likely to dip somewhere into the 60a and that may very well make a difference in a state like Florida and to the extent there is a concomitant drop in donations may have a marginal but no insignificant difference overall in what is bound to be a very close election.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAny poll that counts Pat Caddell as a democrat is obviously fraudulent.
And as long the republican's remain a party of anti-intellectual, anti-science, neo-confederates they won't get the Jewish vote.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGood thing the Republicans have never been anti-intellectual, anti-science, or neo-confederates.
Not that the liberals will ever quite telling that lie either.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe reason Republicans support Israel is because they think protecting the Jewish state is important for the second coming of Jesus.
How much ya want to bet that many of these so-called supporters of Israel make anti-Semitic remarks when they are isolated?
I'll take Obama, who got Bin Laden, over the republicans for protecting Israel, thanks.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe amount of projection amongst liberals is utterly amazing.
Just because they are anti-semitic to the core, they assume that everyone else is.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnd I bet you think people who live in the South marry their cousins, make moonshine in their back yards, and are usually missing a lot of their teeth, right?
Your post is nothing but prejudice. Republicans support Israel because, among other reasons, it is a stable, vibrant, functioning democracy that respects human rights in a region of ruthless tyrants who often turn a blind eye to terrorists (if not actually fund them) and brutalize their own people. Oh, and they are also the ones who make anti-Semitic remarks (and worse), by the way.
You're aware that the name of the courier who was traced to bin Laden for that assassination was elicited by "enhanced interrogation" during the Bush years, right?
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