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Lights Out for McConnell-Reid?

A letter being circulated by freshman Rep. Joe Walsh (R., Ill.) could effectively take the contingency plan being crafted by Senate leaders Harry Reid (D., Nev.) and Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) — it’s being referred to as “McConnell-Reid” — completely off the table in debt-ceiling negotiations.

Walsh tells National Review Online that he has received close to 90 signatures on his letter, which is addressed to House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R., Va.) and urges them to publicly denounce the McConnell plan (or some version thereof) and ensure that it never comes up for a vote. He says that “people close to leadership” have told him that they are aware of the letter and the number of signatures (nearly 40 percent of the Republican caucus) and that it has “had an impact” on their decision making. In all likelihood, Boehner cannot afford another mass defection within the caucus (as with the continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown in April).

McConnell’s plan has faced virulent opposition in the House from day one, primarily from the freshman and conservative members responsible for the “Cut, Cap and Balance legislation that passed on Tuesday. Even some Democrats don’t like the plan. But GOP leadership has refused to rule it out. “If we’re unable to get to an agreement, it might look pretty good a couple of weeks from now,” Boehner said at a press conference last week. “I think it’s worth keeping on the table.”

“It’s always been a very, very, very last resort,” a House leadership aide tells NRO. “But no one likes it.”

If the impact of Walsh’s letter is to effectively preclude (or render moot) a vote on the McConnell plan in one form or another, it would be a significant development in the ongoing stalemate over the debt ceiling, because (despite the recent resurrection of the Gang of Six) many believe that McConnell-Reid is the most realistic — and perhaps only — way forward at this point.

Walsh says his office has been contacted by Senate staff members — Republican and Democratic — who have been asking about the letter’s popularity. Greg Sargent reports that some Senate GOP aides were hoping it would receive no more than 50 signatures. That hope went out the window quickly, however, once the conservative groups Club for Growth and Heritage Action joined the effort and, in a rare twist, announced they would “key vote” whether or not members signed on to the letter.

Walsh suggests that the success of his effort could have prompted the Gang of Six to unveil their proposal when they did as “a last-ditch effort to delay,” once it became clear that McConnell-Reid could not possibly pass the House. Beyond that, he says of the Gang’s plan, “I don’t think there’s anything there.”

“The rank and file, through the letter, is making that clear that [McConnell-Reid] is not going anywhere in the House,” he says. “I think the grand plan was, if I had to guess, everybody in leadership wanted to fall back on the McConnell plan. So pretty quickly the Gang of Six reappeared.”

Walsh is still collecting signatures, and plans to deliver the letter to leaders sometime tomorrow. By then he hopes to have at least 100. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R., Ga.), a member of the Gang of Six, tells reporters that the House “probably has” killed the McConnell-Reid option and Senate leaders are working on alternatives ways to proceed.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   43

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communist
   07/20/11 19:38

After reading so many plans, I think the only that may result in real and significant cuts is simply refusing to raise the debt limit.

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   07/20/11 19:47

GOOD: now go around the same guys and ask them to sign a letter urging a small, simple bill to cut $500 Bil, raise the debt limit $500 Bil, and prioritize the debt financing, entitlements, and military saliaries.

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   07/20/11 19:58

Agreed. That's the way to go.

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 Eric
   07/20/11 20:56

Sure, you could prioritize debt financing, entitlements, and military salaries. Of course, that would mean no prison guards, no FBI, no agents monitoring our nuclear arsenel, no border patrol, no supplies for the military, no mortgage market, no FDIC insurance, no air travel, etc.

How long do you think the Republican party would survive as a non-negligable political force if they pass such a bill? A week? Maybe two?

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johns
   07/20/11 23:50

This is disingenuous. The Federal Government has been "shut down" before. When this happens, the President's job is to use his available funding to ensure that critical government functions -- like prison guards, national security and the like -- continue. Generally speaking, the government sends home "non-essential" and non-emergency personnel -- which constitutes the vast bulk of the Federal workforce. Government offices and national parks are closed, but air traffic controllers and prison guards remain on duty. If the President orders prison guards sent home and airports closed, it will be entirely his decision -- done for political purposes. The Federal Government has enough income coming in August to fund bond payments, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and pay essential Federal personnel. Obama's threat to not carry out his moral duty is simply that -- a vicious threat against the public.

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   07/21/11 06:59

What part of "raise the debt limit $500 Bil" do you not understand?

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William R. Barker
   07/20/11 19:56

First, allow me to respectfully suggest that all of you reading this call your Representative's office and ask 1) If he/she has signed the letter; 2) If not, does he/she plan to; 3) If not... why not.

Second, to those of you with Republican Senators, ask your Representative to pressure your Republican Senator(s) to unseat McConnell from his leadership post.

(And, yes, of course you can all call your Republican Senators directly; it's just that the House needs to realize that a RINO Senate will bring them down and so it's in their interest as elected officials who hope to be re-elected to "butt their noses into" the Republican Senate Caucus' business.

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   07/20/11 19:59

The Hold The Line Crew to the rescue!

Great news.

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Paul Mitchell
   07/20/11 20:48

Joe Walsh is my friend, and a fine Congressman!

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MarkJ
   07/20/11 20:50

Rep. Joe Walsh? Whoa, dude, I LOOOOVED his song, "Rocky Mountain Way" and all the stuff he did with The Eagles. ;)

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 Eric
   07/20/11 20:59

It would be pretty dumb to sign the letter. Eventually, they are going to have to agree to the McConnell plan (or some other clean debt ceiling plan) on a whether-they-like-it-or-not basis. The public is not going to be pleased that the party of small government is withholding their Social Security checks, and no amount of PR will ever convince the American people that the party of "big government" is the reason for the entitlements stopping (hence why they caved in 95).

The question is how much damage the Republican party does to themselves (and for how many years/decades the damage lasts) while they wait to cave -- not WHETHER they are going to cave. Given that they are going to cave eventually, why make it that much harder with a letter taking the opposite position than they are eventually going to take?

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communist
   07/20/11 21:27

GOP shouldn't have to worry about any backlash from voters. Given our 2-party system, voters have no choice but come back to GOP when Democrats screw up big time. Still remember 2008 when conservatism was pronounced dead by many ?

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 Eric
   07/20/11 22:18

Just how exactly did that work out for you in 1932?

You are correct that we will have a two party system. But the new Republican party that would form after the self-destruction of the old one would be an Eisenhower-type party -- one that promises a radical departure from the old philosophy, and promises not to undo all the progress the Democrats made.

Sure, that would leave out the 10%-libertarian contingent to continue to post on NR. They might even splinter and give Democrats even more power. But regardless, if you want to completely discredit the entire idea of "small government" with 80% of the population, the absolute best way to do that is to force Obama to show the country just exactly what the Republicans mean by "small government."

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   07/20/11 22:51

Eric, believe it or not, in 1932, FDR attacked Hoover as a "tax and spender", and promised to balance the budget. The people chose what looked like fiscal sobriety.

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Hostdude
   07/20/11 21:28

Stop trying to scare grandma. There is more than enough in monthly revenue to pay entitlements and debt service. There is not enough to keep other major parts of the government going and that is its own issue. But its not your grandmas problem.

And you are assuming that they are going to cave. Cave to what? My guess is that the President caves and the Republicans pass a short term increase with cuts only and this will have to be replayed during the next election. That's what worries the President and Democrats the most.

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 Eric
   07/20/11 22:19

I don't think that worries the Democrats in the least. Such a bill won't even be voted on by the Senate, and it wouldn't matter. The people don't follow procedural machinations in Congress. The one thing they all know is that Democrats are the party of "big government" and the Republicans are the party of "small government." Good luck trying to convince an otherwise apolitical public that the party of "big government" is the reason their SS check didn't arrive.

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 REB
   07/20/11 21:55

It's pretty dumb to call almost 100 Congressmen who have signed this letter "dumb". I think they know better than you how this will all end up.

For starters, they haven't succumbed, as you have, to the scare tactics of the left and the MSM about not releasing social security checks. It was highly irresponsible for Obama to say that the government would not be paying out social security on August 2nd because the government is actually obligated to pay it.

For the month of August, the federal government has projected revenues of $172.4 billion and projected expenditures of $306.7 billion leaving a deficit of $134.3 billion. Projected expenditures include $29 billion for interest on Treasury Securities, $49.2 billion for Social Security benefits, and $50 billion for Medicare/Medicaid payments, a total of $128.2 billion.

Current revenues for the August 2011 period in question are sufficient to prevent government default and to pay Social Security and Medicare benefits with an estimated $44.2 billion left over for payments toward other government obligations.

Once the public sees their entitlement checks continuing to flow, the momentum will quickly shift from the scare tactics of the Democrats to the more sensible solution, and the only legislative solution to date, from the House. Those Tea Party Republicans will have strengthened their hand and will become a force to be reckoned with in any future "deal".

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 Eric
   07/20/11 22:24

REB, Social Security checks most certainly will stop. The government is actually "obligated" to pay everything, which it can't do if there isn't a debt ceiling increase.

You are correct that there is exactly enough for debt service, military payrolls, and the entitlements. But that's where it ends. No money to keep prisons open, border guards employed, no one to watch the nuclear arsenal, no FBI, no supplies or food for the troops, no mortgage market, no FDIC insurance, no air traffic control (which means no air travel), etc.

So yes, I am most certainly calling 100 Congresspersons dumb. This is because they are dumb. My entire POINT is that they are going to cave (regardless of whether they know it now or deny it now). Furthermore, they will either cave quickly (and possibly preserve their party), or cave after a few weeks (after having done tremendous damage to the electability of their party for years if not decades). Either way they are going to cave, and it's just a matter of time (and angry NR commenters when it happens).

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 REB
   07/20/11 22:43

Eric, if social security checks do not go out in August it will be because the Obama administration made a conscious, political choice not to send them out. The funds will be there.

The Treasury would have to prioritize how the remaining funds would be spent. The point being, a short-term solution would then be needed, one which would then inure to the benefit of Republicans once the public had seen the entitlement checks go out. The Dems won't be able to go the scare tactic route a second time.

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Rdawg
   07/20/11 22:11

hold the line - any republican who votes for any type of compromise will have a tea party primary opponent - including McConnell - enough is enough - no debt increase!

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