I’ve been relatively optimistic about how the debt ceiling fight would end up throughout the process, but not until the last day or two could I have imagined it could end with as significant a win for Republicans as now seems to be within their grasp.
As the details of the Boehner bill become clearer, it’s increasingly apparent that the bill is just what the moment calls for: significant cuts achieved through statutory sequestration caps, no tax increase, no backsliding on entitlement reform or implicit acceptance of Obamacare, a path to another process that could lead to more cuts without tax increases, and the setting of a precedent that from now on increases in the debt ceiling must be accompanied by proportional spending cuts. It’s far from perfect, of course—meaningful entitlement reform is
the only way to really address the debt problem, and even short of that some more significant discretionary cuts would be good—but Republicans don’t control Washington, and given their limited formal power, an end to this process that looks something like this bill would be pretty remarkable.
Even the Reid bill, though its cuts are less real, would be a better conclusion than has seemed plausible throughout much of this process, and there is nothing particularly important about a “short-term” rather than a “long-term” increase, provided a long-term one maintains the one-for-one ratio of spending cuts to debt-ceiling increase. Something between the two bills, which is now perhaps the most that Democrats can hope for, would be an extraordinary win for Republicans.
But frankly, it’s not clear Reid can even get his bill through the Senate. If Boehner can get his through the House, the Senate would have to take up that bill (perhaps with modest amendments) and Republicans would set themselves up for a pretty stunning victory. Either way, if the Boehner bill passes then things will have turned fairly dramatically in favor of the Republicans, and the Democrats will have no one to blame but themselves, and above all the president.
Yuval,
You say: "Even the Reid bill, though its cuts are less real, would be a better conclusion than has seemed plausible throughout much of this process." Apparently you haven't been paying attention to the credit agencies. They say that the U.S. must get the deficit under control to the tune of $4 trillion in cuts and those cuts MUST BE REAL. We are going to have a credit downgrade if we do not enact significant real cuts. Smoke and mirrors will fool the American people but not the credit agencies.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"there is nothing particularly important about a “short-term” rather than a “long-term” increase"
I disagree. there are two benefits of a short term deal
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse1)the fiscal responsibility discussion stays relevant, and pinned on a tangible issue
2)we get to have said discussion during an election year.
With his own caucus split between tea and champagne, and having to deal with King Jello and his Court Jester over the Senate, I'd agree that Boehner has done pretty well.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSpeaker Boehner has done a great job with King Jello, as Henry Hawkins dubbed him. Barry's regal bearing has also inspired King Putt or King Punt elsewhere.
I read that "tingles" Chrissy Matthews was not impressed with his Dear Leader's campaign speechifying last night. When you have lost Chris...well, rough seas ahead.
I do thank the GOP for holding on to our country, in tatters though she may be.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI just now went and registered my copyright on King Jello.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI guess I don't understand how this is a success, because we are still not forcing the country to understand that we can't afford all the goodies any more.
My only hope is that this is not the end of this debate and that we all continue to hammer on the destructive effect of deficit spending, out of control entitlement programs, burdensome regulations and high taxes.
Republican better not walk away from this saying "Mission Accomplished". It has not been accomplished.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe GOP cannot get that message out without the Presidency.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou know, it took over 220 years to amass $14,000,000,000,000,000.00.
It MAY take a FEW YEARS, minimum, to fully solve the problem.
But, take solace in this:
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OUR NATURAL ADULT LIVES, THE GOP HAS WON A BUDGET BATTLE, RHETORICALLY, AND ON POLICY.
That doesn't mean perfection or Nirvana has been attained. But it sure bodes well for the road ahead.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell stated...
Thank you Yuval Levin.
I have to agree.
Having just read the fine Ms. Malkin's & Mr. Erik Erikson's offerings, it becomes silly however. It is fascinating to encounter the lack of genuine objectivity from those who call themselves conservative. The devotion to stick it to the Republicans, in a skewed manner, is quite clear. The entire concept is decidedly forced not only to equate, to placate a predetermined narrative which holds the Republicans in contempt, but actually holds higher disdain for the GOP offering than the alternative. There is NOTHING a Republicans can do which will satisfy, nothing.
Notice something missing from the comments at the NR lately? A bevy of anti-GOP sophistry screaming about 'capitulation'. The fashionable concepts were proven wrong again. The jumping over the Republicans was again premature. Much like the infamous "I told you so" boasts regarding GW Bush in "not signing" the Border Security Bill, which was proven utterly wrong as well. There are voices who simply exist to stick it to the best interests we have in Washington today (admittedly far from perfect), and they cannot help themselves from going way overboard.
The reality is, there is probably gold - ratings, attention, readers, etc., in this game. The play of some who equate the situation is absurd, and actually grows a hyperbolic - emotive cynicism which is far from conservative and eventually becomes destructive to their own advocacy. For example, Boehner is simply not Pelosi, no matter what someone says - those saying this nonsense are just no longer stable to be considered conservative. And those who offer this blurring of reality, lose credibility. Just like a famous Radio Celebrity who was using ugly class warfare with terms of "blue bloods", it is a disastrous contradiction of the very worst.
The same elements which grow in the public must be responsible with their leadership. They are very talented and sharp, and must do better - even realize they can at times be part of the problem. The growth in Conservative voices in the Public is at a high point, but we have watched Democrats grow in influence in Government. The failure does not just rest with the Republicans who risk by seeking Office, but with those coaching from the sidelines.
When the irrational anti-GW fever struck after 2004, it failed to have a reasoned basis. It all proved to be utterly the opposite to sound conservatism, a pure temper tantrum which enabled the opposite. For example, when President Bush was focused on reforming Social Security with serious-sound free market principles, some were screaming about the small, obsessing about Pork. It was a telltale case of Conservative Punditry losing focus on the priority Mr. Bush was wisely focused upon.
No matter what you do, sports, business, battle, etc., you cannot rely on emotion over substance. You will be lost. Without a rational basis, a sense of fairness and judgment, you are going to make huge mistakes.
And in this case, the Republicans have again done quite well. Their efforts since 2010 in the House have suggested they have earned an opportunity for more influence, not merely just being an alternative check against the Democrats. If we empower the GOP in the Senate and the White House in 2012, we will strengthen conservative interests and the Nation will be better served for it. Nothing will be perfect, but Mr. Boehner and Company, especially the likes of Mr. Ryan, deserve many thanks so far.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis is not a game. Republicans win and the whole country loses. What happened to the GOP worrying about uncertainty? The GOP's intransigence has created an immense amount of uncertainty and I am deeply scared by how the GOP has held the country hostage during this whole process. It's disgusting and sad. Our government is truly broken.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusebut it wasn't broken when the dems rammed health care takeover down the throats of the american people despite 60% opposition and medicare cut??? Now the dems care about seniors?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf cutting spending back to a normal level (still a long hard fight ahead, but this is a tiny step) of around 20 percent of GDP and holding the line on sucking more money out of the economy via taxes "scares" you? Then I'd say you're the one being held hostage, to blind ideology.
This is a huge "win" for the United States (left and right), not the GOP.
Deal with it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou haven't been paying much attention. The refrain on NR is that businesses are "uncertain" and worried about what new regulations and/or tax hikes the Dems, especially Obama, will spring on them. Less spending, flat or less taxes, and less regulation are exactly what businesses want. Your argument doesn't make a lot of sense. I would be more inclined to believe it if massive gov't spending had ever fixed an economic problem but I see no evidence for that.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFunny how the people so concerned about uncertainty in the economy now didn't care at all about the uncertainty created by Obamacare and the regulatory leviathan of the past 2+ years.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat? As opposed to the certainty under Obama and the Dems that the country will become a Greek style basket-case?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseA true liberal. Always "scared." If not "scared," then "frightened." Try to come up with a new vocabulary, please.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@parker... What is intransigient about the Republicans refusing to go along with economic suicide?
If you ran the numbers for yourself, you might realize that the ones who have been "gaming" the system are Obama and the Dems who took what was a bad debt and spending situation in 2009, and doubled down on their bets to take the whole national economy to the edge of a cliff.
It's time to take the car keys away from the drunken sailor who bought one too many drinks for his buddies at the bar without having the money to pay for it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAre you serious? The REPUBLICANS ran up the deficit. But that's besides the point right now, because economic suicide would be sending the country back into recession because you won't borrow money that you have ALREADY DECIDED TO SPEND IN THE BUDGET. It's truly just sad.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbusePerhaps you were kidnapped by a bunch of alien marauders at the end of 2006, and returned to earth at the end of 2010. You seem to have a four-year gap in your knowledge of recent history. Apparently, you've never heard the name Pelosi.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe Donkeys have been the ones for decades that keep pushing up spending, yes the GOP did go along. The 94-98 GOP Congress did get us into surplus. Yes Bushie and the GOP did not contain spending, but they were still around 20% of GDP, it is the 30% increase since that is the real mess.
The biggest deficit before O's 1.5 Trillion a year was around 500B, 1/3 of it. That was because Pelosi had already turned on the spending spigot.
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