At a closed-door meeting Tuesday morning, House Republicans leaders urged members to rally behind a recently-unveiled GOP deficit plan, which they plan to vote on later this week. According to a source in the room, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R., Va.) told members he was “150 percent” behind House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) and urged them to “stop whining” and support the plan, despite acknowledging that “the debt limit vote sucks.”
In terms of the path forward on raising the debt ceiling, a lot is hinging on whether or not the GOP can get the 217 votes needed for passage. If it does, that will increase pressure on the Senate to bring it to a vote and pass it before the August 2 deadline. A senior GOP aide told reporters Monday that he thought the Senate “would have a very hard time rejecting [Boehner's plan].” If the plan does not pass, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) could have sufficient leverage to move forward with his own plan. “The Boehner bill can’t pass the Senate,” asserted White House press secretary Jay Carney on Tuesday.
Boehner, at a press conference following the meeting, stopped short of saying he had the votes to pass his plan, telling reporters: “I do think we’re going to have some work to do to get it passed, but I think we can do it.”
Rep. Jim Jordan (R., Ohio), chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee, who announced Monday he would oppose Boehner’s plan, said at a separate press conference he was “confident, as of this morning, that there were not 218 Republicans to support the bill.” However, a House leadership aide points outs that “Jim Jordan is not a whip.”
Adding their heft to the debate are conservative groups Heritage Action and Club for Growth, both of which have announced “key votes” against the Boehner plan.
On the Democratic side, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D., Md.) told reporters Tuesday that Boehner’s plan would receive “very few” Democrats votes, and when asked if he though the plan could pass without Democratic support, Hoyer grinned and said, “We’ll see.”
In order to pass the plan without any Democratic support, the House Republicans can only afford to lose 25 members. Here’s a breakdown of the opposition:
(Note: “*” denotes members who have signed a pledge promising not to support an increase to the debt ceiling absent the full enactment of “Cut, Cap and Balance.” A total of 39 have signed the pledge. That said, NRO spoke with a number of pledge signers — Reps. Allen West (R., Fla.), Bill Flores (R., Texas), James Lankford (R., Okla.), Tim Scott (R., S.C.) — who all expressed various degrees of satisfaction with the Boehner plan, suggesting that there could be some leeway, so long as the plan is viewed to “reflect the principles” of CC&B)
Confirmed NO:
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Rep. Jim Jordan (R., Ohio), RSC chair*
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Rep. Tom Graves (R., Ga.)*
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Rep. Louis Gohmert (R., Texas)
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Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R., Utah)*
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Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R., Kan.)*
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Rep. Jeff Landry (R., La.)*
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Rep. Dennis Ross (R., Fla.)*
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Rep. Joe Walsh (R., Ill.)*
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Rep. Phil Gingrey (R., Ga.)*
Leaning NO:
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Rep. Trey Gowdy (R., S.C.)*
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Rep. Steve King (R., Iowa)*
Presumed NO (voted against “Cut, Cap and Balance”):
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Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas)*
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Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.)*
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Rep. Paul Broun (R., Ga.)*
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Rep. Francisco Canseco (R., Texas)
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Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R., Tenn.)
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Rep. Morgan Griffith (R., Va.)
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Rep. Walter Jones (R., N.C.)
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Rep. Connie Mack (R., Fla.)*
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Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R., Calif.)
Total NO count: 20
Confirmed YES (notable):
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Rep. Allen West (R., Fla.)*
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Rep. James Lankford (R., Okla.)*
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Rep. Bill Flores (R., Texas)*
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Rep. Mike Kelly (R., Pa.)*
Members who are “still considering”:
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Rep. Scott Garrett (R., N.J.), member of RSC leadership
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Rep. Jeff Flake (R., Ariz.)*
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Rep. Mike Pence (R., Ind.)
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Rep. Bill Huizenga (R., Mich.)
Presumed YES Democrats (supported “Cut, Cap and Balance”):
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Rep. Dan Boren (D., Okla.)
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Rep. Jim Cooper (D., Tenn.)
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Rep. Jim Matheson (D., Utah)
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Rep. Mike McIntyre (D., N.C.)
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Rep. Heath Shuler (D., N.C.)
I’ll keep this updated throughout the day. So stay tuned . . .
Republicans in the House would be stupid not to sign on to Boehner's plan. Cut, Cap , and Balance passed the House, and got killed in the Democrat Senate, and Obama promised to veto it anyway. It's simply not going to become law, so we need to move on and find a solution that cuts spending and realize that entitlement reform and real spending cuts are not going to happen as long as Democrats control the Senate and White House. Winning elections is how you achieve reform. If Boehner's plan goes down, my guess is some version closer to Harry Reid's will carry the day.
The polls show this battle has taken a toll on Obama, but if Republicans start looking like purists that are holding the nation hostage for unrealistic demands by a few fringe figures, it could blow back on them.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMy thoughts exactly, SmokeStack.
While I appreciate the desire to hold fast on the debt ceiling, this is not the time or the vote. Any solution is going to be ugly, but we have to get past this deadline, move to next year, and fight it again. The GOP simple doesn't have the votes to stop the spending completely.
Politically, we need to put a popular plan in the hands of Reid and Obama and watch them squirm. Dare them to sit on it. Put them firmly on the defensive.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis IS the time, this IS the vote. If not now, when?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf Obama was desperate enough for his debt ceiling increase, CCB WOULD have become law. Thanks sooooooo much Mitch McConnell for derailing CCB.
Is there ANY reason the House Republicans could not simply have said "this is all you're going to get, take it or leave it"? NO, there is NO reason Boehner couldn't have said that. None whatsoever.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat does Rep. Ryan say about this bill and how he is voting?
Also, for those in the know, couldn't the GOP Senate add amendments to this for more cuts if it makes it through the House? I know that would send the Dems howling and rending their garments, and that would be the point.
Show the American public the cuts.Show them the money. The White House wants no cuts but to raise the debt. Democrats want no real cuts, just ghost cuts by Reid.
People who are paying attention understand debt. You cannot teach the others what they refuse to understand: there is no "Obama stash."
I look forward to not seeing Dear Leader's daily address to his subjects today.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Also, for those in the know, couldn't the GOP Senate add amendments to this for more cuts if it makes it through the House? "
Sure, but there literally isn't enough time. The Senate is either going to have to adopt the House plan without amendment, or the Aug. 2nd deadline is likely to pass without any legislation being given to Obama.
This paints the Senate Dems in a bit of a pickle; The House has passed TWO pieces of legislation to "solve" this crisis, and the Senate Dems haven't passed squat. That's not going to sit well with the dozen or so Senate Dems who are standing for reelection next year in closely contested races.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou're exactly right. The GOP have not only won this battle (if they pass the Boehner bill), but have painted the Dems into a corner.
Don't be stupid and pass the bill GOP. The Dems in the Senate and Obama himself will be forced to hold their nose and vote for it.
To press for more at this time is reckless.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn before the first "Allen West is a RINO" post.
While I'm not happy (and certainly not excited) about the Boehner plan, it's still a LOT better than I was hoping for.
Conservatives who think that we're going to reduce the size of government or its spending in any measurable way by only holding 1/3rd of the entire legislative-making process, are a bit delusional. I think the best we can hope to accomplish given the practical governing realities, is to stop the expansion of government, and I think Boehner's plan succeeds on this front.
Lastly, this is not our last bite at the apple. We can have another debate - that will surely be tied to the FY2012 budget process - next spring. I think the Boehner plan is the best opportunity to paint Obama into any kind of corner. If there's a bill sitting on Obama's desk, he'll sign it. If there's no bill sitting on Obama's desk, it makes it that much easier for him to blame the GOP for whatever follows.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Conservatives who think that we're going to reduce the size of government or its spending in any measurable way by only holding 1/3rd of the entire legislative-making process, are a bit delusional."
Well said, Scott. Let's put lipstick on this pig, put the Democrats in as awkward a position as possible, and take the White House and Senate in 2012.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe last time 'we' had all 3 we increased spending and entitlements. The GOP is not a conservative institution, it's a political one. It's time to get some real conservatives into power, not more Republicans.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYea, that thought crossed my mind as I typed the earlier comment. Seems last time we had full control we ended up with Medicare Part D and earmarks out the wazoo. We need conservatives, not politicians.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt took us 75 years to get into this mess.
I don't think we're going to solve it in one.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Conservatives who think that we're going to reduce the size of government or its spending in any measurable way by only holding 1/3rd of the entire legislative-making process, are a bit delusional."
There's politics, and then there's math.
It may be politically expedient for the House to pass plan A, B or C. But let's not confuse political strategy with actual powers.
The House can absolutely reduce the size of government if it so wishes since it must authorize every dime. If the House does not authorize increased spending or borrowing then the government must shrink.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseScott,
Well said. I'll make one other point for the trust by verify portion of the conservative electorate still burned by the 2001-2006 Congresses.
Only 27 Republican Senators who sat in the chamber on Nov. 1st 2006 remain. That number will shrink further in 2012, while overall Republican representation is likely to grow.
In the House something like 116 members of the Republican caucus have arrived post election day 2006.
By the numbers this is not your Grandfather's Republican party, and the voters should be commended.
We need the White House and a Senate majority to get true structural spending reforms accomplished.
Put another way, Democratic voters didn't abandon Nancy Pelosi in 08 for failure to get a large stimulus and healthcare law out of George Bush, did they?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHere we are again, a couple of months later, and another Boehner bag of tricks with phantom cuts. 0.19% cut to next year's projected federal budget.
$7 Billion dollars in cuts. 0.19% cut to next year's projected budget.
That's still bigger than this year's spending. And more than last year's spending.
Does slightly, ever so slightly, reducing the rate at which we accumulate trillions in debt really sound like a win here?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSports Metaphor Alert
It's time to give up on the 12 lb record bass and head to shore with the 8 lb-er we caught.
Take it from an old AAU/PAL boxer, when you get your man down you have to finish him. It's the very purpose of the sport. Dilly dally around and you give him time to recoup his senses. Finish it. Now.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe analogy would be more apt if you said give up on the 12 pounder and head to shore with the minnow we caught in the cast net. 0.19% cut in next year's spending is a pittance.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRightEveryTime--you're dead right. The Boehner plan is a surrender.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm not sure what Republicans are thinking about at this point. They don't like the President's plan, they don't like Reid's plan and they don't like Boehner's plan, but there's not enough bipartisan support - which they need in the Senate - for the plan they do like. Apparently, they won't be happy until they lose the battle and the war along with it, which is what they're about to do. They're playing right into the President's hands, which he has been counting on all along. If there's no deal, the polls are clear on who the American people will blame. Falling on your sword in defense of a principle is a heroic thing to do, but you still end up dead and the other guy wins.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAgree. The time is now. Do it, GOP. Force the issue into the Senate for an up or down vote. The default will lie in the Democrat hands if no budget is reached.
If this passes, then improve it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse