Ohhh 20 billion. Performing the Mark Steyn calculation, that about 4.5 days of federal spending....

Well NOW we're talking!

I apologize for the length of this comment, but this was just prepared by conservative commentator Jennifer Rubin.

Ten things that happen if the Boehner bill gets through
By Jennifer Rubin

We know what happens if the Boehner bill fails in the House. There is no alternative plan. We suffer whatever shock to the U.S. and world economies that will follow a default. The president will go to the country, claiming the Republicans endangered the country’s economy and global standing. But what happens if the House passes the Boehner bill?

1. The Boehner bill becomes the inevitable solution to the crisis. As Keith Hennessey explains, we also make progress in restoring fiscal sanity:

As initially drafted, CBO projected the plan would cut spending by $850 B over the next decade. That is less than was anticipated, so the Speaker is retooling the bill to meet his dollar-of-spending-cuts-for-dollar-of-debt-increase principle.

These savings come from discretionary spending cuts and a bit from student loans. It would create statutory caps on discretionary spending and a sequester to enforce those caps. The Secretary of the Treasury would be authorized to increase the debt limit by $900 billion upon enactment. It would create a new Joint Select Committee of 12 members of the House and Senate, with three each appointed by Boehner, Pelosi, Reid, and McConnell. The committee’s goal is to reduce the deficit by $1.8 T over the next decade. IF seven members of that committee recommend legislation by November 23rd of this year, then that legislation enjoys an expedited “fast track” legislative process in the House and Senate, with votes in both bodies required by December 23rd of this year. If that fast track legislation resulting from the new committee is enacted into law and it reduces the deficit by more than $1.6T, the Secretary of the Treasury can raise the debt limit by another $1.6 T. The House and Senate would be required to vote on a Balanced Budget Amendment in the fourth quarter of this year.

2. The House would have done its job without violating the core promises the speaker made: more spending cuts than dollars increased in the debt ceiling. And no tax hikes.

3. President Obama, after decrying the plan, will almost certainly have to sign it. This in no sense will be looked upon as a victory by Democrats. To the contrary, by ignoring the president’s veto threat, the House will have shown that its views (and those of its Tea Party freshmen) can’t be ignored by the White House.

4. Congress will rebuff Obama and Reid’s efforts
to slash more than $800 billion in defense spending. It is for this reason that former ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton has endorsed the plan.

5. The rap on the Tea Party that it is incapable of governing will be proven false.

6. The rap that the Republicans are divided between the Tea Party and everyone else will be disproven as well.

7. The most shrill voices in the GOP will take one on the chin, and thereby reveal that the gap is actually between a few loud voices in the blogosphere and Congress, on one hand, and the bulk of the conservative movement, on the other. The Tea Party, however, will show it can move opinion and govern.

8. Obama won’t have any excuse for the rotten economy.

9. The Left will be demoralized. The Left demanded a clean debt bill, railed against spending cuts, and pleaded for tax hikes. They will have failed, and Obama, by signing the Boehner bill, will be the object of their ire.

10. The Senate Democrats, who failed to do their job in passing budgets in two successive years, will be forced to take a tough vote, which will either displease their base or, for certain senators, critical red state voters.

At some level you wonder why this is even controversial in Republican ranks. Perhaps with time for consideration the vast majority of the lawmakers on both sides of the aisle will realize this is not just the only game in town but a very decent one.

So, over the next 10 years, we will now be increasing our spending by only $9 trillion rather than $10 trillion?

This bill does NOTHING to fix the problem.

Dear Tea Party House Member,
Your constituents sent you to Washington on a mission to gain, and hold, as much ground for true conservatism as possible. By voting yes on the Boehner bill you have been 100% loyal to that mission. At this point, I believe you should:
1. Clamp clothes-pin onto your noses.
2. Vote “Yes” on Boehner bill.
3. Print the below chart and walk your constituents through it.

Why? Because "The characteristics of the battlefield define the type of “Win” the warrior fights for."

There are basically 8 possible types of battlefields here:

Battlefield #1: Conservative House, Conservative Senate, Conservative President
“Win” = Achieve Substantial enactment of conservative policies

Battlefield #2: Liberal House, Conservative Senate, Conservative President
“Win” = Achieve Modest enactment of conservative policies

Battlefield #3: Conservative House, Liberal Senate, Conservative President
“Win” = Achieve Modest enactment of conservative policies

Battlefield #4: Conservative House, Conservative Senate, Liberal President
“Win” = Achieve Modest enactment of conservative policies

Battlefield #5: Conservative House, Liberal Senate, Liberal President*
“Win” = Achieve No enactment of liberal policies

Battlefield #6: Liberal House, Conservative Senate, Liberal President
“Win” = Achieve No enactment of liberal policies

Battlefield #7: Liberal House, Liberal Senate, Conservative President
“Win” = Achieve No enactment of liberal policies

Battlefield #8: Liberal House, Liberal Senate, Liberal President
“Win” = Achieve Modest enactment of liberal policies

* The “July 2011 Federal Debt Battlefield”

Then, keep fighting every battle to win them too. Reinforcements will join you in Nov 2012. Their arrival will change the characteristics of the battlefield, making “Substantial Wins” achievable!

How much more will the cuts increase if we wait another week? Will they go up geometrically, or exponentially?

The bill supporters should tell us. They seemingly can predict everything that's going to happen.

I hate the debt as much as the next conservative, but here's the point - it took decades to rack up this debt and it is/was a GREAT moral failure of both parties to get our nation into this much debt. What makes anyone here believe that this can be turned around in one single vote?

It can't! And running around, stomping your feet like a petulant child throwing a temper tantrum because you don't get 100% of what you want immediately is nothing more than a recipe for a Pyrrhic Victory.

The real solution to this problem only comes in November of 2012 when, by the grace of God, the current inhabitant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is replaced by a true fiscal conservative and small-government President. However, crashing the system now plays right into the Left's hands and will only serve to cut off any future chance we have to make a real trajectory change in our nation's course.

So one is a petulant child for insisting upon real spending cuts, but a wise adult for facilitating greater spending. Oh, and the voters will reward you in November for caving in July. Got it, thanks.

This isn't about who's conservative and who's not. It's about understanding what we should be doing now.

You're ready to write off the voters as morons. They're not morons, they're simply too ignorant. And it's mostly the fault of Republicans who refused to take principled stands, and thereby made the political picture to hard to make out.

I'm for clarity and educating the voters - you seem to favor hiding from accountability.

If you squint, you can sort of see an endgame here.

The House will pass Boehner's bill tomorrow. Reid will immediately take up the House message containing the bill, and vote to table it. All 53 Democrats will vote against it, along with the likely 5 Tea Party Republicans plus Bob Corker who have already come out against Boehner's plan. Boehner's plan will be dead, in a vote that might not even be close.

Then, McConnell will work with Reid for a compromise. They'll take Reid's bill, add some face saving measure like a BBA vote (or a stronger trigger for the commission that still won't be strong enough), and put it up for a vote. McConnell will support it, and he will bring at least half of his caucus along. (He already showed he was willing to completely capitulate to Obama out of fear of the political consequences of default rebounding on his party; there's no reason to think he won't do so again.) So far, Bob Corker has said he has favored Reid's approach more than Boehner's and will oppose Boehner's. Others like Kay Baily Hutchison have said that we should compromise on the Reid and Boehner approaches. Once Boehner's bill is dead, Scott Brown/Collins/Snowe/Murkowski/etc will start ringing the sound of compromise (all with McConnell's silent backing). A trickle will turn into a flood, and the slightly modified Reid bill will pass the Senate with overwhelming bipartisan support.

At that point, it will go back to the House. McConnell and others will encourage the House not to plunge the nation into default (knowing that his statements themselves will make it that much harder to avoid passing the bill without getting blame for default). Ultimately, the House will eat it (either before SS checks stop or slightly after), probably with many Democratic votes offsetting Republican defections.

Is the above plan assured? No. Republicans might not have the votes to cave until seniors start twisting the screws after August 2nd. But it is certainly a plausible outcome, based on the evidence so far.