Down to the Wire?

by Andrew Stiles

GOP leaders are confident they can pull it off, but even with a vote on the Boehner deficit plan expected in the next couple of hours, it is clear they are still working to secure the 216 ‘yeas’ they’ll need for passage. That means they can afford no more 24 dissensions, assuming no Democrats vote for the plan, which now looks likely. As it turns out, that’s exactly how many NO votes I have down in my latest whip count.

UPDATE: Rep. Tim Scott (R., S.C.) just said on Fox News that he is a no, which puts them over the limit.

UPDATE II: Back to 24 as Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R., Tenn.) switches to yes. Earlier today, he was seen exiting a one-on-one meeting with Speaker Boehner just off the House floor.

UPDATE III: Well, it looks like Boehner needs some more time. House members have been advised that the vote is postponed, but will be held later this evening.

UPDATE IV: Things appear to be getting desperate. Reps. Joe Walsh (R., Ill.) and Louis Gohmert (R., Texas) have just met with Speaker Boehner and are still no’s. Gohmert says he is a “bloody, beaten down no.”

Rep. Charlie Dent (R., Pa.), a yes, says he’s spoken to leadership. They are short on votes but “very close.”

NO (24)

  • Rep. Todd Akin (R., Mo.)
  • Rep. Justin Amash (R., Mich.)
  • Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.)
  • Rep. Paul Broun (R., Ga.)
  • Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R., Utah)
  • Rep. Jeff Duncan (R., S.C.)
  • Rep. Jeff Flake (R., Ariz.)
  • Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R., Tenn.)
  • Rep. Trent Franks (R., Ariz.)
  • Rep. Phil Gingrey (R., Ga.)
  • Rep. Louie Gohmert (R., Texas)
  • Rep. Trey Gowdy (R., S.C.)
  • Rep. Tom Graves (R., Ga.)
  • Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R., Kan.)
  • Rep. Jim Jordan (R., Ohio)
  • Rep. Steve King (R., Iowa) (a “strong, strong lean no”)
  • Rep. Jeff Landry (R., La.)
  • Rep. Connie Mack (R., Fla.)
  • Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R., S.C.)
  • Rep. Ron Paul (R., Texas)
  • Rep. Dennis Ross (R., Fla.)
  • Rep. Tim Scott (R., S.C.)
  • Rep. Steve Southerland (R., Fla.)
  • Rep. Joe Walsh (R., Ill.)
  • Rep. Joe Wilson (R., S.C.)

During votes earlier today, Boehner was pulling members off the floor for one-on-one meetings. Most undecideds seem to be breaking yes at this point, but leaders will likely need to see if they can peel off a few of these members if they want to avoid an embarrassing defeat. But looking over the list, I see very few members who I can realistically see switching at this point. That said, I think if Boehner needs a vote or two, he’ll find a way to get them.

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