Some more on the emerging deal. Even Republicans favorable to the deal say the defense cuts are the most problematic part of it, but they argue that they probably won’t ever be triggered. I wonder about that. Let’s assume that normal rules apply in Washington, so the chances are that it’s easier for things not to happen than to happen. In that scenario, the special committee deadlocks and we go to automatic cuts. Then, how can any Republicans possibly in good conscience let the cuts take place? These would be cuts to defense that aren’t part of a well-considered strategic vision, but were put in a deal entirely for tactical political reasons. Republicans would have to stop them. They could stop them in the House, but in the Senate? You can understand the logic of the defense cuts as a way to make the deal work, as noted below, but the real-world consequences would be too serious. The problem with the second tranche and the special committee and all the rest of it is that they are a way to try to force Congress to do things it doesn’t have the political will to do — begin to take on entitlements — so it all gets too cute and convoluted. This is why Capretta counseled the other day making the special committee as toothless as possible.
The purpose of putting the defense cuts in the deal is to be able to force the Republicans to raise taxes/revenues as part of the super committee. Wasn't this obvious to the GOP leadership when they agreed to this plan?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis "deal" is essentially unworkable in its present form. It's almost certain that the committee will deadlock (look at the CR and debt limit debates!). Then the Republicans will be hung out to dry: Either they oppose the spending cuts or they agree to gut the defense. I can't believe that Republicans wouldn't see this coming...frightened legislaters simply do not make good policy. So, if this deal goes through, we are looking at a decimated defense. It is hard to predict which will take our counrty down first: An economic collapse or a defenseless posture that invites foreign attack (We're certainly not without our enemies).
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe scenario created by this deal is one in which Republicans voluntarily agree to have a gun pointed at their heads during commission negotiations on the second tranche without a similar sword of Damocles imposed on Dems (e.g., automatic repeal of Obamacare).
As such, it incentivizes Democrat obstinacy.
There are three possible outcomes from the proposed commission:
*It agrees to $1.5 billion in deficit reduction without recommending tax increases;
*It recommends tax increases as a means of reducing the deficit by $1.5 billion;
or
*It fails to agree on anything.
The only proposal that is positive for Republicans is the first, but there's no incentive for Democrats on the commission to support that. None.
In the second scenario, the Republicans either have to pass the tax increases or watch defense automatically gutted. Presumably, Republicans can prevent the commission from recommending tax increases by appointing the right people, but...
Then the Dems will just obstruct and prevent the commission from recommending anything short of tax increases, triggering the draconian defense cuts.
It is absolutely INSANE for anyone on the right to support this joke of a deal that rigs the game in favor of Dems.
It's no risk, all reward for Dems, since it gives them the power to force tax increases or massive and disproportionate defense cuts.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn the last election, the Republicans took the House back in a near-historical landslide. The new members were sent to DC to roll back the huge growth in federal spending which is destroying our liberties and our country. Now, a scant few months later, Boehner, McConnell and their ilk are handing the Democrats a huge victory. I cannot imagine how demoralized the Republican base will be by the debacle unfolding in the Capitol today. If this is the best the Republicans can do, then the country is surely lost. The so-called default deadline cooked up by Geither should be allowed to come and go, demonstrating how phony it is. And the Republican should find the courage to say no to the idiot deal Boehner et al. are cooking up. I know this whole episode makes me sick to my stomach.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf Members of the House and Senators care so much about the deficit, but are not willing to raise taxes to pay for all the defense budget items they believe necessasary for national security, how important can those defense budget items really be?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGiven that the Democrats already were willing to carve out a huge chunk of Medicare to pay for Obamacare and that they will likely blame both the defense and Medicare cuts on Republicans' refusal to entertain tax increases I don't see how the "fail-safe" is anything but a complete loss for the GOP. If they truly want a fail-safe to insure that the committee acts in good faith why not include tax increases and the complete repeal of Obamacare as the default? The bonus would be that if the fail-safe kicked in both sides would have an incentive and opportunity to move toward tax simplification and a better, market-oriented health care system.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhenever this "second debt" limit increase is necessary, we will be in the exact same position we are today.
Why should we believe that lawmakers who caved today will somehow remain steadfast then?
This is insanity. Whenever the next debt limit increase is necessary, the GOP will wet itself over a possible government shutdown and will punt the problem another few months in the future while assuring us that the next battle is the real battle.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat should "Blow Up" is this lousy deal. Don't take it! Since it is likely the second tranche will blow-up, there will be no BBA, either. Total win for the Democrats. Vote NO.
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