Well, that was close. In the end, President Obama got the only thing he really wanted out of the prolonged cage match over the debt ceiling: He got it off his plate for the next election. From my New York Post column today:
Then there was one. With the Senate’s tabling of Majority Leader Harry Reid’s debt-reduction deal yesterday afternoon, the only game in Washington is a nearly $3 trillion, two-stage compromise plan worked out between the White House and congressional Republicans.
The details were emerging last night, but one thing is clear: Both sides can claim victory, and both sides can blame the other guy for taking so long to come to terms. But the real winner here is President Obama. He stands to get the only thing that really matters to him — the troublesome issue off the table until after the next election, since the debt-ceiling argument wouldn’t be revisited until 2013.
It’s not hard to understand Obama once you grok that the only thing he cares about is himself and his continued residence in the White House through 2016 — after which he’ll be free to make millions and millions of dollars (maybe even trillions!) doing that post-presidency thing. The man is riding the greatest gravy train in the history of both trains and gravy, and you can’t blame him for not wanting to get off any sooner than he has to.
Still, the Republican leadership looks ready to declare victory: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said yesterday that the incipient deal “is going to produce what many people would believe is a complete change in the trajectory of the federal government beginning to get spending under control.”
Maybe. But no one comes out of this as well as Obama — who, to have any hope of winning re-election next year, desperately needs to get his wretched stewardship of the economy onto the back burner.
This deal may let him to do just that.
Well, even if there is not another debt limit fight before the election, I hardly think the economy - - with plus 9 percent unemployment and sub 2 percent growth -- is going to be on a back burner.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe economy will be just as much of a millstone around Obama's neck with a debt deal as it would be without one. It was dragging him down before anyone was talking about the debt ceiling and it will continue to do so after the debt ceiling fades into the background. Obama was unlikely to win reelection as of last month. He will be less likely to do so with every passing month between now and November 2012, barring some dramatic turn in events.
Obama just lost an argument he might have used to share the blame for our dire economic situation with Republicans. He can no longer say the economy is bad because Congress won't let the government borrow enough money. Blaming Bush won't work. Blaming Congress won't work. He's stuck with the Hoover strategy from 1932 -- he'll have to argue that he's done everything possible and things would have been even worse without his bold leadership. It will work for him just as well as it did for Hoover.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt doesn't matter which burner the economy is on when the house is on fire...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou're exactly right. Economy will still be the big issue
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm with JPMullhern. The President may have gotten the debt ceiling issue off his back; however, what happens if Moody's does reduce our credit rating later this autumn or next winter? The debt ceiling was never really the issue with creditors and bond holders. It's the ability of our government to pay its bills in the future. You cannot continue to pile up this astronomical debt forever. And if S&P and Moody's reduce our rating, all bets are off.
The other large millstone is the employment scene. It's become evident that as profitability returns to many Fortune 1000 firms, and the fact the unemployment remains near 10%, many firms have either moved much of thier operations to friendlier financial climes or put off hiring altogether. Even Candada has it figured it out. Companies like Catepillar don't have to go to China, Toronto will do just fine. This should be realized as the full effects of ObamaCare loom in our near future. If I was a Commerece official in Canada or Mexico (with an umemployment rate of just 4.9%), I would be doing a lot of lobbying.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOK-- the debt limit is off of the 2012 election agenda-- agreed. So what does Obama talk about in 2012? the great jobs picture? gas prices? inflation? foreign policy triumphs? (the SEALs killed Osamma!)food prices? what does he talk about? the opponent I guess -- "Don't trust Perry look what he did to Texas!"-- no, not really, or "Mitt he ruined Mass. almost as badly as I killed the US economy!!" -No not that either, sooooo...? BUSH#@$%&#!! Haliburton!! Ryan wlll kill granny!! Bingo!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell, it will be up to the Republican candidate to stay on message - the economy.
The media and the Dems will try to throw every other issue out there to get voters distracted from the economy.
If the candidate tries any other message, the media will wash it out and spin it. They cannot "talk over" or wash out a bad economy.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhen the credit rating is lowered anyway? Well duh, they'll blame conservatives for slowing the gusher of federal spending.
It won't matter that it has been slowed only slightly. Or that the spending is actually the source of the problem. And a drag on the economy.
What matters is the Tea Party appeared to accomplish something and the patient is not cured. Their Rx will be to demand another round of Obamunism.
Anyone here see a different outcome imminent?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOf course the Dems will say that we've now tried spending cuts and they don't work, but who will listen? Every line they try is flopping these days.
"Investing in our future" is a national joke. "Balanced" deficit reduction went over like the proverbial lead balloon. The great unwashed is waking up. They've seen the man behind the curtain and they no longer believe in the great and powerful OZ.
There's no need to worry about what the Dems will say next. They've shot all their rhetorical and intellectual ammo. They've got nothing left for the climactic battle.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe MSM is as much to blame in this whole mess as is the Congress and the President. They just accept the word "cuts" at face value and do no homework in ascertaining what "cuts" really means.
Here is an example they could use to illustrate to the public as to what a cut really is in today's world. When you take a 10% pay cut, as I did in 2009 when the company cut everyone 10% across the board, you know what a cut really is. We didn't have a cut from an 8% increase in pay to just a 7% increase. Ony in Washington-speak is that a cut.
Will the MSM ever let the public in on this dirty little secret? Is there a presidential candidate who will tell it like I just did? I doubt it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe'll see what happens. However, IMHO, this whole affair is tantamount to Team Obama blowing a 21 point lead to the GOP. The Republicans have now tied the game, gone into overtime and have advanced the ball to the Obama's own 20 yard line. They're slicing through Obama's defense like a hot knife through butter and are now in excellent position to either run for a TD or just kick an easy game-winning FG. Meanwhile Obama's two star QB's, Reid and Pelosi, aren't even talking to each other or are just sullenly moping on the benches. And "Coach Obama"? He keeps saying he has a "secret game plan," but it's so secret he won't even share with his own team. Better yet, he isn't in the same stadium. He's sitting in a bunker somewhere, phoning everything in. Obama is even vetoing the plays called by his QB's, when they do call them, while confidently telling his his coaching staff, "Now we've got them where we want them!"
"Downfall parody" to hit YouTube in 3...2...1...
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"... a complete change in the trajectory of the federal government beginning to get spending under control.". Does the expression "snowball's chance in hell" ring a bell?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCheck your premise.
1) All the comments here have a premise that the majority of the voters are reasoning, lucid thinkers who come to places like NRO actively looking for the Truth. Is that a valid premise?
2) All of the comments here have a premise that all the issues mentioned (and I agree with you that they are are critically important - GDP growth, jobs, spending, etc, and that Obama has been a horrendous steward) will be presented to the above mentioned voters (in between American Idol and their 200 tweets a day) in abundance and with no spin. Does anyone here really believe that these casual voters are going to see, as presented by the Main Stream Media, what we here on NRO see?
Results don't matter, and neither do Facts. Only the Perception matters, and Obama and the Media can project whatever fantasy they want - he orates, the Media fixates, the masses ululate, and we at NRO (to no avail) rotate.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"The details were emerging last night, but one thing is clear: Both sides can claim victory, and both sides can blame the other guy for taking so long to come to terms.
...
Still, the Republican leadership looks ready to declare victory:"
Both sides don't WANT to claim victory, though. Pepublicans always claim victory. Democrats always claim defeat. Even when they get 99% their own way, they pout and scream and claim the GOP didn't fight fair. Meanwhile, the clueless GOP obligingly jumps up and invariably "claims victory."
The result is that the GOP gets spun as being hardliners who won't meet the other side more than 1% of the way, and it also takes full ownership of what were in actuality bipartisan compromises that typically leam way left. This is just the latest example. Nothing good will come of it, but with our side claiming victory while Democrats scream that the sky is falling, they have set themselves up to win the future.
Check out Krugman or the WaPo or Nate Silver or any other leftist accounting. None of them are claiming victory for the left anymore than Pelosi is. They all claim the right got all its own way - and our own stupid talking heads in the GOP are reiterating that message.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf the economy continues to crater, there's no quarentee that even a $2T debt limit extension will last until after the next election.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis just in, the manufacturing index has sunk to it's lowest point in 2 years.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis does not get Obama's wretched handling of the economy off the table -- not even close. We will still have massive debt and will still be running massive deficits in 2012. Unemployment is still likely to be 8-10%. Growth is still likely to be 1-2% if not worse. This does not repeal Obamacare, Dodd-Frank, NLRB, EPA, etc., etc.
If Obama was counting on this deal to reverse the course of the economy and save his bacon without any other policy changes from his administration, then he is truly delusional.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRepresentatives of Moody's and S&P stated a few weeks ago that they wanted $4T in defict reduction. Washington (both sides) only delivered $2T. I believe that a downgrade in the next three to six months is now inevitable.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe economy will not be off of Mr. Obama's plate. People will face the economy at the gas pump, at the grocery store, when they write their mortgage or rent checks, and when they talk to a good friend who has lost his job. For most people, those are the things that make up the economy--not the mystical debt ceiling. He may be re-elected, but not without the ghost of Election Past's words ringing in his ears, "It's the economy, stupid!"
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"He stands to get the only thing that really matters to him — the troublesome issue off the table until after the next election, since the debt-ceiling argument wouldn’t be revisited until 2013."
The argument is NOT about the debt ceiling. It is about the debt and government spending. So sure Obama does not have to address the debt-ceiling, but he will have to address the debt again when the second round of cuts come up for debate/vote.
Is the deal perfect - no. But it does at a minimum reduce baseline spending which is more than we have ever gotten before.
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