Results from an N.H. Journal poll out today of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters: Mitt Romney (36 percent), Rick Perry (18 percent), Ron Paul (14 percent), Michele Bachmann (10 percent), Herman Cain and Jon Huntsman (3 percent), Newt Gingrich (2 percent), and Rick Santorum (1 percent). Ten percent are undecided and 3 percent prefer a candidate not listed in the poll (Buddy Roemer surge???).
For now.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell, FINALLY. A Buddy Roemer mention.
ROEMER!
ROEMER!
ROEMER!
C'mon. Everybody...!
ROEMER!
ROEMER!
ROEMER!
OK. Fine then. Never mind.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFrankly, NH really doesn't matter. While the establishment media will make the most import of it, neither the republican nomination nor the presidential election will make or break on that irrelevant state. It’s a different environment now, even if the chattering head honchos at (certain online magazines) don’t realize it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGary Johnson's been stumping NH for a while. It's plausible that he pulled a point or two.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat 3% is obviously for Gary Johnson. It is criminal that a two-term Governor running for the Republican Presidental nomination isn't even listed most polls.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseFrankly, NH really doesn't matter. While the establishment media will make the most import of it, neither the republican nomination nor the presidential election will make or break on that irrelevant state. It’s a different environment now, even if the chattering head honchos at NRO don’t realize it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseShaping up to be a weird primary season. Bachmann takes Iowa, but the win is discounted because she was born there, lives proximate, its primaries skew social conservative. Romney takes NH, but the win is discounted because he lives in MA and has spent a gazillon dollars there and most other frontrunners have quietly ceded him the state. Nevada gets newfound prominance, and with its heavy Mormon population AND large Tea Party contingency AND the fact that it's a caucus, gives all the front runners a good shot AND an easy excuse if they lose. SC is a similar toss-up, although the social conservatism there seems to favor Bachmann, or Perry if he proves himself relevant between now and then.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNo surprise here. NH is Romney's firewall. If he can't win NH handily he won't last long thereafter. Assuming the million things that could happen between now and then to derail them all do not happen, Perry and Bachman will duel over Iowa, Romney will take NH as a quasi-favorite son and the winner of the S.C. primary will have the advantage going into FL and Super Tuesday. My bet at the moment would be on Perry winning both Iowa and SC, and emerging as the eventual nominee. But as the old saying goes, a week is a lifetime in politics, and it is a long time before any actual votes will be cast.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseKatrina, if you have been assigned to read every poll at this early date, quit, it's not a job worthy of you.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseLet the airheads on TV, breathlessly announce poll results which will be superceded by new results, oh, two days from now.
Romney better hope he lives up to expectations. He was supposed to win NH in 2008, but narrowly lost to McCain. While he still carried on for a few more primaries, that basically killed his chances right there.
If Romney pulls less than about 35% in NH, he underperforms and loses every following primary until he drops out.
Now consider: Bachmann is over if she doesn't win Iowa. Perry is gaining and she has peaked. Many fence sitters will read the tea leaves and jump on the Perry bandwagon in order to drive Bachmann out because the GOP must not let her win - she would be a disaster. So Perry wins Iowa, Bachmann has a disappointing distant second, and drops out.
Going into NH, Perry has momentum and picks up a majority of Bachmann supporters. Meanwhile, Romney never builds. It is quite possible that Romney still wins NH, but 32% to 30% instead of 35% to 20%. Romney is deflated by failure to live up to expectations. And Perry has a stunning close second in a state where he wasn't supposed to even be competitive. Then Perry dominates in South Carolina and that's the race.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnd this is a surprise?
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse1) Where did Perry's 18% come from?
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse2) WHo is everyone's second choice. A lot of voters who back second tier candidates will, when they get into the voting booth, decide to vote for their second choice, since he/she has a chance to win, and their favorite doesn't.