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Libya: A Valuable Success and a Warning to Tyrants

The imminent collapse of Qaddafi’s regime is a major milestone not simply for the long-suffering Libyan people, but for the broader Arab uprising of 2011. Qaddafi’s ability to cling to power through brutality and slaughter had cast a dark shadow over the region for the better part of six months. In stark counterpoint to the relatively peaceful and rapid departures of Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt, Qaddafi hoped to establish a much different model for the region’s dictators: Rather than succumb to the overwhelming will of the people for political change . . . crush them by whatever means necessary. The example was certainly not lost on the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad when confronted with its own popular upheaval just weeks after Qaddafi first unleashed his killing machine.

Now, with Qaddafi’s demise at hand, a major psychological blow has been struck against the region’s other tyrants who have sought to follow in his foot steps. The message has gone out: The effort to stand athwart history, and through blood and bullets deny the just demand of your people for a more decent, accountable government will, sooner or later, fail. The reverberations in Damascus will be loud and unsettling. You can bet that Assad’s head lies much uneasier today.

As welcome as Qaddafi’s downfall is, enormous challenges remain to secure the promise of Libya’s revolution. It is a society fractured along tribal and regional lines, largely bereft of functioning institutions. Months of war have only deepened animosities and suspicions. The Islamists are strong and no doubt ready to seize the day. The risks of chaos and large-scale revenge killings are real. Whether the rebels’ Transitional National Council has the power, discipline, and decency to manage a more or less peaceful, orderly transition will be put to severe test. We in the West have a considerable stake in seeing them succeed, and having Libya reenter the international system as a stable state and major oil producer, focused on using its substantial wealth to enhance the well-being of its long-neglected people. Our sustained military support for the TNC in recent months, and continued influence over the disbursement of tens of billions of dollars of frozen Libyan assets, certainly provides the United States and its major allies substantial leverage. It should be exercised, without apology, in a well-coordinated strategy to shape the post-Qaddafi era in a direction most congruous with U.S. interests.

The Obama administration can take some satisfaction in Qaddafi’s ouster. Yes, it moved too slowly in calling for his departure and, when it did finally act, its support for NATO’s campaign was far too tepid. As a result, the conflict was almost certainly prolonged and made more bloody than it needed to be, increasing the danger of turmoil, chaos and Islamist extremism’s ascendance in Qaddafi’s wake. Obama’s insistence on leading from behind further eroded already waning U.S. credibility in the region, and gave heart to other bloody-minded dictators like Assad to uncork fully their evil. All that said, we are left with this fact: More than five months ago, the President of the United States declared that a dictator with American blood on his hands, who was threatening to wipe out a significant portion of his own population, had to go. And now it appears he is gone. That kind of success is valuable coin in the game of nations, and no doubt will accrue to the benefit of the United States if expended wisely — to help see the Libyan transition through to a successful conclusion, and to expedite the end of the Assad tyranny, and the unraveling of the Iranian-led axis that poses the greatest threat to American interests in the Middle East.

— John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, served as national security advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney.

New on The Corner. . .


COMMENTS   11

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   08/22/11 11:32

Well written and nuanced article.

Would that your compatriot on these pages (Mr. McCarthy) would read and understand your common-sense article, rather than his normal fulminating rants against anything and anyone Muslim (because that means they're part of the Muslim Brotherhood).

Well done!

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   08/22/11 11:38

What a bunch of hogwash.

What about the fact that the rebels are just as bad as Qaddafi if not worse? They have raped and killed their way to Tripoli, especially against black Africans.

What about the fact that the US has no interests in ousting Qaddafi? Is the new US foreign policy to support every rebel group wanting regime change in the name of "responsibility to protect." What about the civilians being slaughtered on Qaddafi's side? Where do we intervene next if the bar for war is set so low?

What about the fact we are completely broke and can't afford this? Was this intervention worth the additional debt it caused when there is no tangible benefit to the US?

What about the fact that most likely the new regime will be the same as the old regime, brutal dictators laundering oil money to private accounts? Except this time the will probably be more anti-American and anti-Israel than Qaddafi was.

God I hate Neocons, which are just reincarnations of Woodrow Wilson when it comes to foreign policy.

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   08/23/11 02:36

America has huge interests in the new formation of a Libyan government, and we must apply the lessons learned in the aftermath of WWII. Worldwide trade and economic interests are only part of the calculation.

The most compelling factor is that Libya today is clearly analogous to the formation of the United States of America. In a natural resource rich territory the tribal and religious divisions were overcome with a little help from the French in the common goal of throwing off an oppressive despot.

With the right encouragement we could have a new partner in the ongoing struggle for life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Their only major handicap seems to be that they are not generally Christian with natural law inclinations in their philosophy. It will be interesting to see the path the Libyans take. And it will be interesting to see the role taken by the United States in guiding the Libyans.

If we use the United States as a guide, the first step is to identify their George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, and those holding the view of limited federal government with enumerated and dispersed powers, constrained by checks and balances. It is a good model, yet challenging to formulate and keep.

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   08/22/11 12:18

The Obama "administration" will dither on this as they did on the initial action. The result will be another repressive Islamic regime that will treat its people no better than Qaddafi did and will inject themselves more often into the national scene via acts of terrorism. In the end, we will have underwritten the removal of a despot only to allow the establishment of another Al Qaeda stronghold. In the meantime, our president golfs, vacations, and takes bus tours. This whole "Libya thing" was extremely inconvenient for him and its aftermath will be inconvenient as well.

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   08/22/11 12:28

John, I understand your point of view, and I certainly think it's noble; Who doesn't want to see that murderous thug, and other murderous thugs in the region deposed?

The problem, as you kind of glossed over, is what comes next. In the last 60-years, rarely do we see armed rebellion resulting in a freer, more open and transparent society. And in the Middle East, what follows these kinds of rebellion, could never be described as egalitarian.

With hundreds of thousands of troops in Afghanistan and Iraq at incredible expense in both blood & treasure, we have learned without equivocation that democracy in that part of the world - a region without any cultural history of democracy - is very, very difficult. Instead, what is more likely to emerge is either (another) strong-man dictator, a junta-like leadership or a theocracy. Given the internal dynamics of Libya (a fervent and contemporary distaste for a dictator and no professional military of any kind), isn't theocracy the most likely form of government to emerge?

It is possible, and perhaps even probable, that we will see a Libya that more closely resembles a more perfect union of al-Qaeda , than a liberal Democracy. And, it will be a Sunni theocracy that wouldn't have to rely on the heroin trade, but on oil money instead. Then, will America's foreign policy interests be better off or worse off relative to what we had during a Gaddafi regime?

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 GWB
   08/22/11 12:33

Scott, you forgot one possibility: fracturing into smaller states - which usually then get gobbled up by surrounding nations.

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   08/22/11 14:20

Yes, that's absolutely true. Tripoli continuing to exist has it has for the last 50 or so years is pure supposition on my part. There's absolutely nothing certain with respect to the Libyan border(s).

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 GWB
   08/22/11 12:31

I will agree with the statement about Obama's "leading from behind" weakening our credibility. For the rest? Oh, please. Anyone who thinks this will be an improvement over the status quo is going to be really disappointed.

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   08/22/11 15:41

I have a question - I'm not too smart and would like a little input.

When you say, "lead from behind", how much would it have cost us in dollars to lead in front? In case anyone hasn't noticed, we're broke. We're already fighting what is now 2 1/2 wars.

Had we led in front, we would have shouldered the cost, so toppling Qaddafi would have cost us a fortune. However, by standing next to our allies - instead of in front of them - we didn't need to print more money to pay for it. Of course, more lives were lost and that sucks. But these people have been slaughtering each other for 8000 years. Do we really think we're going to put an end to that?

By "leading from behind" (which makes this a black and white choice - no shades of gray), we didn't do more damage to the dollar. Yet Qaddafi is out in spite of our president's poor performance.

Like I said - I'm not a scholar or academic that can figure out how this strategy hurt us. We've been a paper tiger since we quit looking for Al Sadr and Bin Laden. I doubt this situation made us weaker.

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   08/23/11 02:12
David E. M. Thompson
   08/23/11 05:32

"It [Libya] is a society fractured along tribal and regional lines, largely bereft of functioning institutions." How does that make it different from the rest of the Arab/Muslim world?
"We in the West have a considerable stake in seeing them [the rebels] succeed, and having Libya reenter the international system as a stable state and major oil producer, focused on using its substantial wealth to enhance the well-being of its long-neglected people." That would make it history's first such Arab/Muslim state. The prospects are not good.
"Our sustained military support for the TNC in recent months, and continued influence over the disbursement of tens of billions of dollars of frozen Libyan assets, certainly provides the United States and its major allies substantial leverage. It should be exercised, without apology, in a well-coordinated strategy to shape the post-Qaddafi era in a direction most congruous with U.S. interests." This only worked in half of Europe after WWII. It has never worked for any western nation anywhere in the Arab/Muslim world.
Nobility of the sort that Mr. Hannah is peddling (and Woodrow Wilson peddled 100 years ago) is exercised at little cost to the nobles, but huge cost to us commoners. That's where common sense applies here.

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