The Libya War looked like a debacle throughout most of its duration, but now appears on the cusp of success. It was always hard to believe that in a contest of a third-rate military v. a third-rate insurgent force plus NATO air strikes, the insurgent force wouldn’t win. There were probably only three things that could have saved Qaddafi’s regime: the internal fracture of the rebels, NATO’s lack of will, or the U.S. Congress. All of those seemed at times as though they might come through for Qaddafi, but the campaign ended up having the broad contours that were predictable at the beginning. Despite the humanitarian justifications for this war, I always believed it was essentially a 21st-century punitive expedition against Qaddafi, a mass-murderer of Americans. We are going to be able to shape the post-war situation only at the margins and it will be chaotic at best.
"There were probably only three things that could have saved Qaddafi’s regime: the internal fracture of the rebels, NATO’s lack of will, or the U.S. Congress. All of those seemed at times as though they might come through for Qaddafi..."
Whoa, whoa, whoa Rich... I'd suggest a rephrasing there.
I don't think there were more than a handful of members (whose names start with "Ron" and end with "Paul") who were opposed to taking down Qaddafi. NO ONE loved the man, and all will be happy to a degree to see him gone.
It was the Constitution, stupid. There's a right way and a wrong way to go to war, and this way was the wrong way, regardless of the results.
Of course, now that the war seems to have gone swimmingly-- only a few months late!-- a more serious danger emerges: the convinction that this sort of thing was *acceptable*, and that this Administration, or future Administrations, can do this again.
Nothing sets an example so much as success.
This war was unconstitutional, and Congress should have had the strength to call the President on it. They did not, and the White House got away with one, and I fear, future White Houses will get away with worse next time around.
I'm glad Qaddafi is gone. I'm afraid America still lost.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI could NOT agree with you more. This is/was a VERY bad precedent, one that will come back to bite us.
The fact that Congress refused to even pick up the ball on this one shows us just how dysfunctional a body it as become, especially in regards to providing a check on an 'Imperial Presidency'...
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRich, I think this is right. If we look at the popular uprisings over the last few years in the Middle East there are a few things that stand out. Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt fell because they (or more likely their generals) were unwilling to use brutality to quell the uprisings. While the ultimate outcome of Tunisia and Egypt is still in question, the military leadership in both countries has retained their power which I think in the end is a positive. The regimes in Iran, Syria and Libya on the other hand have resorted to brutality to quell uprisings. The key difference in Libya is that US/NATO was able and ultimately willing to influence the outcome. Syria and Iran are obviously far more difficult to influence short of an all out war and I don't think there is the political will for that in the west at this time. Libya though with a fractured military is likely to be chaotic for some time, but in the end I think it is always a good for people like Qaddafi to meet justice in one way or another. So as you say, a succesful debacle, but a success nevertheless.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIsn't this a bit early to declare victory? Looks to me that Libya is at about the stage Iraq was a few months before the "Mission Accomplished" speech. What do we do if the rebels slaughter massive numbers of civilians, turn out to be the Libyan Taliban, or cast their lot with Iran?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou could substitute the word "Iraq" for "Libya" in Mr. Hanson's "analysis" and get an accurate description of Iraq, other than the "success" part in light of the billions we've spent there and the dysfunctional government we support.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI meant Mr. Lowry, mea culpa.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse