I considered the war against Moammar Qaddafi — admittedly a monster — to be ill-conceived, poorly articulated, unnecessarily drawn out, and predicated on the whims of the U.N. and the Arab League rather than on authorization from the U.S. Congress. But the only thing worse than a unwise war is losing an unwise war — and that is what the Obama administration has finally realized.
The bombing in Libya has escalated exponentially in recent days, in response to widespread Western criticism and embarrassing U.N. fickleness and NATO deadlines. Qaddafi’s end is most welcome — though there will certainly be more blood-letting required before he is gone entirely. I predict that there will be a split between NATO and the rebels as the ring around the die-hards in Tripoli tightens. There will be lots of retribution, tribal infighting, and, I think, racially inspired brutality: The rebels will want to settle four-decade-old scores, and the Europeans and Americans might not want to be seen nearby, much less be held responsible.
What Libya will look like in a year, no one knows. Without U.S. ground troops, we will have no say over the outcome — and ground troops would mean a politically unacceptable third Middle East occupation and reconstruction. Given the proximity of Libya to Europe, and the fact that the British and French started the intervention — not to mention their thinly disguised obsession with its oil — one hopes that those two countries will do their best to ensure some sort of consensual government. In the meantime, I am afraid that Libya’s sizable wealth and unaccounted-for arsenals may wind up in the wrong hands, as we have seen in the new unrest in Sinai.
As for outcomes, there are many scenarios, but these two may be the most likely: either a sort of on-again-off-again chaos until a military-backed clique or strongman emerges and the same old cycle resumes, or some sort of constitutional system in a decidedly Islamic context, analogous to the Turkish model. In the latter case, we could expect the new state’s foreign policy to be anti-Western, friendly to China and Russia, virulently and actively anti-Israel, and more accommodating with Iran and its subsidized terrorist appendages. Given Western insolvency, public weariness with the Middle East, the announced draw-downs in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the president’s leading-from-behind diplomacy, I think the region will do pretty much what it wants without any worry whatsoever about U.S. feelings or interests.
On our end, it would seem wise to keep our defenses strong and ready, and finally start exploiting our own sizable fossil-fuel reserves (especially oil and gas offshore) in the Gulf, the West, and Alaska.
Though I don't have any survey results at hand, I have to think most Americans are in favor of drilling domestically. So why doesn't it happen? I guess because the other side, though numerically inferior, is more fanatical and actively devoted to its cause. And is therefore able to prevent it from happening.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDomestic drilling is happening...in Texas and North Dakota!
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"On our end, it would seem wise to keep our defenses strong and ready, and finally start exploiting our own sizable fossil-fuel reserves (especially oil and gas offshore) in the Gulf, the West, and Alaska."
Wise advice indeed, Dr H, but sadly unlikely before January 2013!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBut we wont know it Doctor R. We'll be sitting in the dark because the Obama EPA will shut down all the electric plants long before then.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSomehow I know that I am going to be expected to pay for this folly.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOnly children not old enough to read this article will pay for this (and other) messes.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo well stated Mr. Hanson...
"I think the region will do pretty much what it wants without any worry whatsoever about U.S. feelings or interests."
We watched the incompetent - negligent misuse of US power in the 1990's enable the very worst. We see the same happening today, with a confused, purely domestic Partisan political game being haplessly provided.
It is a tragedy, since so much sacrifice was provided after 9-11, with some challenging - sound efforts to finally bring a needed intervention to a Region providing so much death around the World.
We best "change" course in 2012, period. 'Smart power' is a fiasco, and we may be paying for the disaster for years to come.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe ONLY result will be a radical Islamist theocracy.
There is no other organized group around with the means to take advantage of the vacuum.
The pressure is currently increasing on Israel because the Egyptians, while somewhat quiet since Mubarak went down are beginning to see their radicals start to take control.
All the new theocracies will all rise up simutaneously but not until Syria is brought to heel by Iran's surrogates. Make no mistake, Assad's thugs are best positioned to resist the tidal wave, but they too will eventually fall to the Mullahs.
Once that occurs the Islamic cresent will nearly encircle Israel and we will either have to get in, up to our necks, or wave good bye to our only friends in the Mid-East.
My Conspiracy Theories, volume 666.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI have no doubt, that had George W Bush conducted the Libyan affair in exactly the same manner, you would be hailing him today as the greatest Western warrior since Charlemagne. Victor Davis Hanson you are a partisan robot, pretending to be a scholar.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseElvis, I have no doubt that you have no doubt.
But you're wrong.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseElvis Costello canceled a concert to Israel out of solidarity with Israel's enemies. No wonder he scorns VDH.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBush had the opportunity to conduct Iraq in the exact same manner. But he chose to consult congress and the UN instead, and got resolutions from both of them before proceeding.
It's called "following the rules". Bush did it. Obama didn't. Whatever flaws Bush had, Obama has many, many more. Nuff said.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIraq was still at war when Bush left office...after nearly 7 long years and thousands of American soldiers dead. Obama, with the NATO coalition, looks like he'll have Gaddafi gone is six months and ZERO American deaths. Enough said!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYes, because the the situations are exactly the same: bunch of Arabs, lots of sand, crazy dictator. Obama must be a military genius.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"Though I don't have any survey results at hand, I have to think most Americans are in favor of drilling domestically. So why doesn't it happen? I guess because the other side, though numerically inferior, is more fanatical and actively devoted to its cause. And is therefore able to prevent it from happening."
Because the world's spigots are not opened up 100%. Our refineries are never operating above 60% (that's why we don't build more).
I'm all in favor of drilling. Hell, start in my backyard if you want. The problem is drilling a massive reserve that contains light sweet crude. If we spent tons of money to open up for example, ANWR - our "friends and allies" would simply choke production further to keep prices where they want them because ANWR is not significant when compared to mid-east sources of oil. We'd be out that cash with no relief from oil prices. That's the problem when we simplify the supply and demand principle - it only works if production is at 100% and not keeping up. That's not the case.
Mr. Hanson is not wrong - I heartily agree with his point. But the solution is not simple because our allies are really our enemies. Cutting off our supply of oil would cripple the United States and degrade our ability to defend ourselves. So, we play nice with them and ignore their bad behavior so our supply remains intact.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI believe some here aren't aware of refining that's done offshore for us.
The reason we don't build more refineries is that the regulatory process is so burdensome it is much less expensive to refine offshore, like in Kuwait I believe.
Another opportunity to bring good paying jobs home.
Refine at home where we can exert at least some control on the environmental impact (if that's what makes your pudding set) or buy it refined and then only the good Lord knows what the impact is.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI love Libya and it has pained me to see a wonderful country under the iron heel of this thug. I suppose most of my childhood friends in Libya are dead or in prison. They were all the children of the military and police prior to Qaddafi and probably didn't survice.
I have high hopes for a reasonable government. Libyans are not numerous and are all highly educated compared to most Arab countries.
I would love to take my wife to visit Sabrotha and Leptis Magna in a free libya. I hope that happens.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe easy part was deposing Qaddafi.
The three dimensional jigsaw puzzle of creating a new government which appeases the population while also addressing international demands and satisfying our own interests is orders of magnitude more difficult, and there is no "correct" answer, only amalgams of different components, most of which are detrimental to our concerns.
Add to this the ineptitude and inexperience of the Obama Administration, and the likelihood that a year from now we are happy with the outcome is practically zero.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo, Obama announces we are bombing Libya from Brazil, and things escalate in Libya just after Obama goes on vacation. This means, for one thing, that neither he nor his press secretary had to articulate the mission.
Obama is, IMHO, assisting in establishing the New World Order -- probably for the alliance of the Islamists and the Far Left.
I understand that, according to Human Rights Watch, there wasn't much of a "humanitarian crisis" in Libya afterall. Lies, lies, and more lies in the service of the New World Order.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMr. Costello:
I think VDH did a fine job of describing the Libyan situation and possible outcomes in four paragraphs. I am not surprised by your opinion of Dr. Hanson, but am encouraged that you actually read him, many on your side would would rather walk on broken glass than read something he wrote.
P.S. My opinion stands whether you are the real EC or just an Elvis impersonator
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