Jonathan Chait, responding to my post on politicians and science, is eager, as always, to claim the mantle of science/reason/empiricism for the Left. But he misses the point of my post (as he is professionally obliged to do). Chait writes: “Liberals (and, I’d argue, moderates, but I’ll just use the term “liberals” for syntactic clarity) care that a politician believes in climate change and evolution because they believe that elected officials should accept science.” But it is a rare politician indeed who is remotely qualified to accept or dispute any scientific question of any real significance. Politicians are here to consider political questions.
I have not argued that scientific knowledge does not matter. I have argued that the scientific opinions of people who do not know the first thing about science do not matter.
Scientific disputes are highly specialized, and meaningful participation in them requires a great deal of non-generalist knowledge. I’m generally skeptical of argument from credential, but there’s a time for it. For instance, a great number of scientists have a particular view of global warming. Richard Lindzen has reservations about that view. Professor Lindzen is an atmospheric physicist a full-on professor at MIT. Your average politician is not packing the gear to get in the middle of that fight. I’m not. Chait isn’t, either. Is Lindzen not a real scientist? Is he a kook? Is Jonathan Chait going to make that case? Given two scientists with different opinions about climate forecasting, why exactly ought I to consult Jonathan Chait, or Jon Huntsman? Chait ought to think about seizing one of the many occasions for humility that come his way.
To reiterate: Chait et al. are not looking for scientific knowledge; they are looking for scientists to endorse their policy preferences. That is not the same thing.
Matt Yglesias jumps on the intentional-misunderstanding bandwagon here. (For the record, Matt, I don’t know what kind of intelligence I did or did not inherit from my parents; I’ve never met them. When one lacks the relevant knowledge to form an opinion . . . oh, never mind.)
UPDATE:
And Kevin Drum weighs in with a great show of scientific rigor: “Well, I’m a pretty conventional liberal, and I’d say that intelligence is roughly 50% heritable . . . .” But, of course, it matters not one whit what Kevin Drum would say, since Kevin Drum knows not one thing about the subject. (Which is the point.) The current estimate, incidentally, is about 85 percent — Hey, it turns out wild guesses by uninformed amateurs are not scientifically sound. Who knew?
For what it's worth Kevin, we commonsense thinkers have long since understood that most scientists are ardently "for" whatever their employers prefer they "discover."
Altruism?
Pursuit of knowledge for knowledge's sake?
That all died out before the second world war.
Today's scientist (with rare exceptions) is as much an ideologue as any politician, and uses his pedigree as a tool to influence the minds of the apathetic and ignorant.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI asked a leftist years ago "What about Lindzen?" It turns out that Lindzen's views do not count because he's gotten grants from oil companies.
You don't have enough faith in the left's ability to determine the criteria of "expertise" in such a way that an expert is by definition someone who agrees with the political left.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI don't know why people assume scientists are pure as the driven snow, automatically objective and free from political or ideological influences. Asking questions is what keeps scientists honest, not blind acceptance of scientific "orthodoxy". What if Galileo or Einstein had not questioned the scientific consensus of their days?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI think both of you miss the point. If the Kooky Party (or a good chunk of it) generally believes the world is flat, odds are I don't want the Kooky Party exercising much influence on public policy because their judgment is pretty obviously warped, and profoundly so. If Politician X announces, "I believe there's plenty of evidence that the world is flat," i.e., if Politician X panders to the wackiest factions of the Kooky Party, I don't want to hand Politician X the reins of power, not because I think Politician X is crazy enough to actually believe the world is flat, but because I can't trust Politician X not to pander to any group, no matter how warped, for any reason, and accordingly I can't trust Politician X to exercise good judgment.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf you knew the earth to be "not flat", that would be relevant. The theory of global warming is just that, a theory based on made up computer models, designed to render what we "propose" the outcome to be. Or not "science" but "guestimology". Their own wacky data shows that there hasn't been any warming in ten plus years. So to express a belief in a theory based on subjective analysis is hardly definitive proof you would make an excellent president. And to base your policies on assumptions and presumptions draped in the mantle of "science" is bull.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAgreed, but I'd say it goes beyond guestimology.
Even the Big Bang is a theory. It's a well-thought out theory but it can't be proven, at least not yet. Entire branches of physics now have nothing to do with science and everything to do with whatever the most dominant, unprovable opinion happens to be. String theory = look what I just pulled out of my *** today. Too much (not all) of science has turned into a an absolute joke.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAgreed. I've gone the Ph.D. route (and got one), and yes, anything at the "edge" of physics is necessarily opinion waiting to be proven. For the most part, given time, these edge ideas are proven/disproven (or better yet, become more precise). Other ideas, especially those that have some sort of political favor (and we're talking academic politics, not necessarily state/national politics), tend to get grant after grant. String theory and global warming theory are just two obvious examples. A decade or two ago it was plasma physics (with an eye to creating a fusion reactor).
Even then, for most theories, it can be a useful exercise, insofar as the theory tends to get pushed as far as it can go before it fails. String theory has evolved much in the past 20 years or so.
Global warming theory is another story entirely. There is a huge political policy agenda that likes this theory because its "remedy" is as much government control over economic activity as possible. Thus there is a lot of grant money out there for research, and people can make money by writing papers about "How global warming affects [whatever my field of study might happen to be]".
I was skeptical of global warming science ever since it came out (mid '90s). My own work used computer models (in plasma physics), and I was very very aware how easy it was to get a bogus result from a model. A model does exactly what you tell it to. Some of my colleagues who were more involved in atmospheric studies were busy doing things like tweaking their models so that the north pole would freeze in winter.
Just as an aside, if you ever want to debunk someone using the computer model argument, point out that Toy Story 3 is a computer model.
Anyway, it doesn't even matter that I know the topic matter, that I read original papers, etc. Anyone I might argue with just says, "Well, all these other scientists disagree with you." Not that they can name any of them.
That is why Kevin is right: it's a political debate, NOT a scientific one. The entire point of bring up "the science" is to delegitimize the opposing political point of view. The only useful reply is to delegitimize the "it's science" argument by noting that the policy advocated in the name of science wouldn't work in the first place.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseJamesD-- completely agree.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWell put sir!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGreat comment, thanks.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI can't understand a lick of string theory, but I have noticed that it has not generated a single new technology. Relativity has nuclear reactors and atom bombs. I want to see something good--anti-gravity, time travel, matter reproduction. Heck, I would settle for something easy like cold fusion!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDidn't those computer models fail to take cloud formation into account...
...because nobody knows precicely what role cloud formation plays in global climate?
That by itself disqualifies the models.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusedicentra- there are dozens of data based errors in the GISS and IPCC 'models' which invalidate them. There are dozens of studies, some 'peer reviewed' that do so. But the more pertinent point is that the models are not 'science'. They are computer programs based on assumptions and erroneous or falsified data. The UN's IPCC staff is made up almost exclusively of economenticians crunching numbers. There is no physical experimentation or empirical observation going on-- no repeatable experiments to prove or invalidate a theory. In short, there is no scientific method going on. There are only grants being grabbed to keep the econometricians in business. That's "climate science" today.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis is an excellent point MikeB, and why I can't trust the Democrat party on the topic of Man-made Global Warming.
In the X billion year history of Earth, the planet has warmed and cooled countless times (one example, 18,000 years ago North America was mostly covered in ICE). It is frightening to think that one political party thinks that now, this ONE time, in the X billion year history of Earth, that mankind is by far the primary cause of any change in temperature. It is religon to this Kooky Party.
That this Kooky Party can not set down a set of falsifiable experiments that would prove their hypothesis correct. That ANY change in short-term weather "proves" that the science is "settled".
I could keep going on, but you are right about the Democrats being the Kooky Party.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI suspect the average evangelical Christian creationist arrives at his conclusion to reject evolutionary theory, by a different path than he uses to reject a kooky theory that doesn't have implications for his faith. Ditto liberals and the hereditability of human intelligence.
Consequently, it's not a logical conclusion from a person's believing something kooky in one sphere of knowledge, that he must necessarily think kookily about everything. In all spheres other than the one where his sacred cows impose a blind spot on him, where he doesn't apply his normal standards of reasoning, his reasoning may be perfectly sound.
Thus, I would be very little concerned about whether my car mechanic accepts evolution. My doctor, maybe. But most people are perfectly capable of thinking perfectly rationally about the things that are relevant to what we hire them for, despite that their overall worldviews may create the occasional blind spots.
Frankly, I think the blind spots which keep liberals from thinking scientifically about economics, psychology, history, and geology (where they almost without exception exaggerate the certainty and extent of anthropogenic global warming), are far more relevant to their fitness to govern, than whether a politician "believes in" evolution.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseReasonable people can reject whichever of your cherished theories you are talking about. Calling such people "kooky" is an exercise in elitism. In my experience, most people who do this are not elite in any way.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMy captcha code was spot-on.
"politically correct" it required, in the same sense that it is politically (and not scientifically) correct to say that the science is settled, here or in any other scientific field.
The proper rejoinder for these true believers is the one the (few) wise ones throw at the religious:
"Why do you believe what you can't understand? It must be that the conclusions suit you."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseKevin-- fantastic take down of these know nothings. Personally I'd go further than you. I've been a weather/climate hobbyist for 35 years, and I can flat out say that "Climate Science" to the extent it claims to project temperature and other climate indicia changes decades from now, is a much 'science' as is econometric models and risk algorithms -- we know how well those turned out regarding MBSs! I also guaranty that pin heads such as Chait know nothing -- and care not -- about the difference between reason based 'science' and climate models. Forget trying to talk to these guys, dopes such as Chait are not worth engaging. They revel in their ignorance.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou are exactly right. Climate change policy is a risk management effort--a policy effort. Knowledge about the risks is uncertain, and different people tolerate different levels of risk--standard corporate risk management. If the issue were approached that way, a consensus policy could be hammered out.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHow fun. The "settled science" of global warming......errr climate change, or whatever they've changed it to recently seems to still be "settling".
Liberals are a treat. They claim the science mantle with climate but don't find it odd that the only remedies they claim will resolve this "settled" issue are 100% liberal policies. How convenient.
Of course, ask the same liberals about the science of abortion and watch their heads spin. Talk about "settled" science!!
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