Job creation ground to a halt in August, and the U.S. is now clearly sputtering toward a recession. Downward revisions to prior months make this bad report worse than it seems.
It might be that this jobs report stimulates the Obama team to drop all the Keynesian nonsense, but I doubt it. Frankly, I expect Obama’s jobs speech to be the worst presidential speech in my lifetime. Their position throughout this recovery has been that the U.S. can have the highest corporate tax on earth, a big regulatory crackdown, and a vast expansion of labor-union power, and still expect a positive jobs story because of cash-for-clunkers and green jobs. This jobs report indicates how much damage that view has done.
— Kevin A. Hassett is director of economic-policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
Is anyone surprised that the economy is still in bad shape?
Hugh Hewitt said that the Carter administration cured a generation of liberalism, and that Obama would do the same for the current generation. I hope so, and I also hope the good Lord brings us the equivalent of a Reagan administration to follow!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI am with you on your prayer, Annie, but there is only one major difference between this era and the one that brought Reagan to power:
In the Obama era, the hostages are the American people here at home, not the embassy workers abroad. Indeed, even when setting the date for the sure-to-be-awful speech, Boehner and company are "negotiating with the hostage-takers" in the White House.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"It might be that this jobs report stimulates the Obama team to drop all the Keynesian nonsense, but I doubt it."
Absolutely zero chance. Obama is a radical ideologue who knows no other way. He is also surrounded people who are of like mind. There is not a single person in the administration who has any inkling of what to do.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAccording to Drudge (I wasn't able to follow the link as the server was busy.) Obama is backing off on the new clean air standards.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWould any of the angry bears around here like to apologize to Mr. Hassett? Six months or a year ago when the data was looking much better, he was accused of being polyannaish by the "there is NO recovery crowd." For 2 years since the recession's bottom in June of '09 the data was telling a different, more positive story, and the bears had little more than political and ideological certitude in making their case.
Now that the data warrant a negative outlook, Hasset's giving one. The data is what it is. Any takers?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBut, his read on the data turned out to be wrong then and it is wrong now. Why would those mythical angry bears apologize for being right?
It appears that Mr. Hassett is a lagging indicator, if your claims are correct. I don't follow his prognostications, so I don't know what he was saying last year.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOr it could be that the author is finally coming to realize what most of us knew all along.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThat being, there was no recovery. The numbers never justified that claim that we were in a recovery, and this view is becoming so glaringly obvious that even the pollyannas are being forced to recognize it.
Mark, flatly untrue. In 2010 some of the ISM readings and regional factory indexes were at levels not seen since early Reagan. I attribute precisely zip of that to stimulus or anything Obama, but they were there.
Many around here were unmoved, it was "I know what I know and don't confuse me with any facts." Big pet peeve of mine. And they based this on nothing other than the stubbornness that as long as Obama remained, nothing positve happens. Clearly the massive uncertainty was too much to bear for a normal recovery to take root. But that doesn't mean the readings weren't there.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI must add that the early Reagan years, the economy was in bad shape, but there was a big difference.
We had a president who was fighting tooth and nail for policies that would improve the economy. WHen he got those programs into place, the economy did start improving.
WHile there were glimmers of hope in 2008, anyone who was paying attention would have noticed Obama and the Democrats passing policies that were guarenteed to hurt the economy. That's why we poo-poo'd your declarations that recovery was on hand.
It had nothing to do with a desire to undercut Obama. None of us has that power anyway.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMark, flatly untrue. In 2010 some of the ISM readings and regional factory indexes were at levels not seen since early Reagan. I attribute precisely zip of that to stimulus or anything Obama, but they were there.
Many around here were unmoved, it was "I know what I know and don't confuse me with any facts." Big pet peeve of mine. And they based this on nothing other than the stubbornness that as long as Obama remained, nothing positve happens. Clearly the massive uncertainty was too much to bear for a normal recovery to take root. But that doesn't mean the readings weren't there.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe problem is that some people, look at one, maybe two numbers, and convince themselves that these numbers are the perfect predictors of the entire economy.
The rest of us look at the entire picture and could see that there was no strength in the economy and what little glimmers of hope that there were, wouldn't last.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo are you going to apologize to those of us who were right that there was no recovery and your predictions of such were wrong?
Actually, it is a better report than advertised. That's not to say it is *good* news; it's just not as bleak as those around here are claiming. August, after all, is never a great employment month. Additionally, the household survey is encouraging.
The problem is government interference in the economy has slowed the natural adjustments that come with a recession. Fearing a crash, government made unprecedented intrusions into the economy and the result is a slow motion recovery.
I said a long time ago that the historical analogue to Obama is Hoover. If you look at Hoover's administration, it was at this point that the economy lost steam and the public lost confidence. Sounds familiar, doesn't it.
When we're all dead, the historians will call the era that began with FDR the Liberal Era or something similar. The closing of that era will be the Obama administration. What comes next is anyone's guess.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseActually Bill, no guesswork is involved. It's as plain as the nose on your face.
If you want the detailed answer however, I suggest picking up a copy of Mark Steyn's excellent new book "After America."
It's all spelled out in words even you can understand.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI find Steyn very entertaining, but his previous book was tedious and full of logical fallacies. He could have boiled it down into a lengthy article and save himself some time.
I'm probably going to pass on his latest. This country has been through far worse than what we see now. Guys like Steyn cleverly see that most people are prisoners of the moment. When times are bad, doom sells.
A decade from now when boom times have returned and we are laughing at those who told us we needed to fear China, James Glassman will be penning books about the eternal prosperity that is upon us.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"When times are bad, doom sells."
You would have a point if Mark Steyn solely wrote this book in the times and you can find an instance in the past when Mark Steyn was positive about America's future. Mark Steyn has been gloomy about America since his first book, "America Alone" and every column he written has been in the same vein.
You have read the other book, right? I didn't but I don't need to. I'm even more pessimistic than Mark Steyn.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDId you consider that the report artificially added 87,000 jobs as an "adjustment" for jobs that were assumed to be created but missed getting reported? Or that all these numbers are "seasonally" adjusted?
It appears that August being a poor month for job creation has been backed into the number already.
I suspect the report is at least as bad as advertised.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhy, every cloud has a silver lining! In this case, look at the wonderful things Obama has done: Grant the administrative equivalent of amnesty to illegal immigrants; appoint socially radical activist judges; "evolved" his views on things he didn't dare say during the election...
Right now, I'm jumping for joy! Or was that a mosquito bite on my backside?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs Mr. Hassett lays out so clearly, the Obama economic program really comes down to three simple elements: Keynesian deficit spending, regulatory expansion, and increased labor union power. Surely at some point even liberals can see the results and realize this program doesn't work? Or can they continue clinging to the fantasy that somehow it would all be working out fine absent the Tea Party?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseCorrect on the Keynesian angle. When is the Dow going to hit 36000? I keep forgetting.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusethanks to impending inflation, I wouldn't count that out so quickly.
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