In 2009, President Obama promised that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act would “create or save” 3.5 million jobs over the next two years and that the unemployment rate would not rise above 8.5 percent. By the end of 2010, he promised, unemployment would have dropped to 7.25 percent. Furthermore, White House economists forecast that without ARRA spending, the unemployment rate would increase from 7 percent to 8.8 percent. Unfortunately, the administration’s estimates were wrong by a vast margin.
This week’s chart compares unemployment estimates from the president’s 2010 Budget — which contains the original proposed estimates for the impact of the stimulus on unemployment — with actual unemployment rates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The data show that since the enactment of ARRA in February 2009, unemployment has not approached previous unemployment levels again: it was 7.6 percent when Obama took office, it is 9.1 percent today. Unemployment peaked at 10.2 percent in October 2009, an amount significantly higher than the administration’s warning for what unemployment would be without the stimulus (8.8 percent).
The lesson: Beware of promises.
As the prospect of yet another increase in stimulus spending for the sake of job creation looms, we need to be reminded that sustainable job creation comes from the private sector. True “stimulus” legislation is that which creates a stable, low-regulatory regime that will enable businesses to hire workers in sustainable jobs — jobs that will last long after stimulus funds have run out.
Oh sure. Judge a man by his actual record.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThis lazy analysis again? We all know today what wasn't known in 2009 - the plunge in GDP at the end of 2008 was much deeper than was stated at the time the stimulus was proposed and approved. I'm sure Ms. de Rugy will share with us her analysis from 2009 showing what her projections were for unemployment numbers.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYes, the decline in 2008-9 was much deeper than people expected. But what you fail to acknowledge is that the recovery has been unusually slow. Employment peaked in March of 2007 and declined by 7.42% over the next 32 months. Twenty months later we still have not reached the previous employment peak--we have regained only about 22% of the jobs lost. Obama may not to blame for the decline (though other Democrats such as Dodd and Frank may be partially responsible), but why is he not responsible for the very slow recovery? If you ask businessmen what the problems are, they mention things like his disregard for the sanctity of contracts (the pay-to-play attitude of this administration) and the flood of regulations coming from Washington.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseBut the collapse of the financial system under Bush lost us almost 9 Million jobs. Compare that to previous recessions (2 to 3 Mill).
Thatsounds like a pretty big hole to climb out of.
And the GOP solution is more tax cuts for the rich? Like free Champagne in First Class on the Titanic.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnd of course we started losing those jobs when? In 2007, when Congress was taken over by Copperheads like you.
And of course, when Bush tried to reform Fannie and Freddie in 2001, 2003, and 2005, it was Copperhead filibusters that stopped it.
wv: shoot through. What facts do when they enter a Copperhead skull.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe people that will start the lead out of the Recession will be the rich. They are the ones that buy big ticket goods & services first. The middle class is squeezed and scared, so we're not spending much beyond necessities. Once the rich buy stuff/invest in goods/services, then that will spurn some job growth as the demand picks up. The middle class gets hired into the growing demand. Then the middle class start spending more because we're working again and things seem stable. That's when the economy takes off and get healthy again.
If the government takes away the rich people's money, who's going to start off the buying of goods & services to get us headed in the direction of real recovery.
It's prove. The government can not create wealth. They can only redistribute it or kill it completely. Either way that leaves no group of people with a chunk of cash able to jump start any recovery.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWhat can I buy to spurn some of that there job growth?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo you really think you can just throw numbers around and nobody is going to call you on them?? Sorry dude, that's reserved for the president, his staff and his enablers in the press. Your claim that 9 million jobs were lost under bush is just wishful thinking on your part so you can take the blame off your hero, the Big O. The decline of this country's economy has come at an unimaginable pace caused intentionally by the policies of Obama. He wanted to take down America a notch or 2 but has succeeded beyond even his wildest dreams. There is none so blind as he who will not see and bro, you're as blind as they come.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSomething to ponder,after Obamas' speach last night wanting to spend almost half trillion dollars, this morning and throughout the day the stock market drops over 300 points. Now what kind of confidence does the stock market have in this Presidents ideas? New idea, or the same'ole spit and polish and reinventing the word "stimulus package"?
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"The curious task of economics is to prove to men how little they know about what they imagine they can design". F.A. Hayek "The Fatal Conceit"
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYep, Obama didn't realize just how bad things where when he took over. I didn't either. We all knew Bush policies had done some real damage, but nobody realized just how far down he had drug the country.
I'm with you, Veronique. How DARE Obama be so blind to the havok Bush wrought?!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe liberal excuse: Obama didn't realize just how bad things where when he took over.
The reality: Obama didn't realize just how bad things would be as a result of his own decisions.
He still doesnt. He has been killing jobs left and right with Obamacare, drilling bans, regulation creep, NLRB gone wild, EPA CO2 threats.
Some of us knew Obama policies would do some real damage, but nobody realized just how far down Obama could take this country.
And his supporters STILL dont get it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseSo you're blaming ... faulty intelligence reports? How'd that work out for Republicans in 2006?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe economic tsunami was caused by the housing bubble that could not be sustained. A pet project of the left but aided by the right.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe economy was in OK shape through the first 6 years of W. Things only started to go bad when the Dems took over control of the House in Jan 2007. With the help of a few RINOs who decided to feast on pork, the folks who 'drove the car into the ditch' were the Dems.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf John McCain were president now and unemployment were only 8.5%, would you be willing to accept his excuse that it was all his predecessor's fault? Or would you be saying that he was a failed president? If unemployment surges to 10%, would you still absolve Obama of all responsibility? Once one believes that Republicans or conservatives (or Democrats or liberals) are the source of all problems, one can always find a way to blame them for whatever goes wrong.
People voted for Obama because they thought he would fix the problems he inherited from Bush, not perpetuate them and make them worse.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOMG, stop the pain. For heaven's sake, have an original thought instead of reading from the playbook. Blaming Bush is so 2009.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI know that government stimulus, Keynsian economics, and evil corporations are holy canon for some of you on the left, but I will ask again for an example where these policies have ever worked in the past. The claim was that we just never went big enough, but the ARRA was a big-government stimulus package on a scale never before imagined and guess what ... it still didn't work. It's time to go back to proven methods: lower the tax burden on those creating jobs, reduce onerus government regulation, and get the hell out of the way.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThats why my vote goes to Ron Paul in the primary
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs CEO of my own company I inherit problems all the time. It is my job to fix them or go out of business. I wont say what industry I work in but the regulations have demoralized and hurt my industry and it really makes it tough to be growth minded and hire. We are just trying to push on by and deal with all this red tape that the liberals have put on my industry. Obama is to blame pure and simple.
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