Howard Beach, Queens — While neither campaign, and no media outlets, are ready to declare a winner in tonight’s race, the overwhelming majority of evidence so far points to a victory for Republican Bob Turner in NY-09.
With 218 out of 512 precincts reporting, Turner leads Democrat David Weprin, 14,434 votes to 13,910, a 51-49 margin. More importantly, these results are based on returns from more than half of the precincts in Queens (178/342), compared to just 40 precincts reporting out of Brooklyn’s 170. Brooklyn is considered the more conservative slice of the district, and turnout there has been reported as particularly strong.
To win tonight, Turner needed to win Brooklyn convincingly and hold his own in the liberal parts of Queens. So far, he has accomplished this, and members of the Turner campaign staff say their internal numbers indicate that he will continue to do so. Barring any shocking developments, Bob Turner will be the Ninth district’s next congressman.
UPDATE: New numbers put Turner ahead 53-46, with over 19,000 total votes and 329 precincts reporting. Members of the Turner campaign say they think the Board of Elections are holding back the Brooklyn numbers and that’s why they’re reporting more slowly.
UPDATE II: The AP has just called the race for Turner.
UPDATE III: Turner has been on the phone with John Boehner and is about to take stage. Here’s one of the signs among the crowd:

It says “Mazel tov, Bob”.
AP just said Turner won. Amazing, my district just elected its first Republican to Congress since 1922.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNo matter how Obama's people try to spin this, it's a clear message that the nation is sick of him and wants new leadership. Now, if only we had a strong candidate, he'd clobber Obama, but so far they're all mediocre.
During Trner's victory speech, the crowd chanted USA, USA. See, Manhattan may be different from the rest of the country, but Brooklyn and Queens aren't.
Look, I'm not Johnny Advocate of the Laurel Resting Society but BIG FAT RED has been the color of the bulk of every statewide and federal election in America after Nov. 2008. If the (R) Presidentials can fully concentrate on this instead of behaving like the clowns they have been lately, Obama will make Mondale look like Reagan.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRush today said very much the same thing: "Avoid distractions, talk about jobs, the economy, overspending, and the national debt. Make it about Obama, and conservatives will win big."
I agree. But this win is particularly sweet, for it suggests the left's trashing of both Israel and the economy is beginning to have serious consequences with significant portions of their base.
If it were not for the slavishly one-sided media, the problem for President Obama would already be much worse.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe good news is that this is a direct result of the Obama media. They were WAAAAAY too soft on Obama from day one, and while they were doing cover for him, his base was eroding around him. They did him NO favors by being soft on him.
That's why these tough Republican debates are a good thing. We're going to end up with a tough, battle ready candidate, and that's exactly what we need.
The Democrats/media were STUPID to allow Obama to coast in unvetted, unprepared, and uncriticized. They have done lasting damage to their party. The country on the hand is much better off for it. We now see what liberal really are, and the people do NOT like it.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse@Drakes Fortune: I agree; in the elections before 2008, Americans were like the frog in the slow-boiling pot. But BHO got into office with the help of the complicit media, then moved so far left, so fast we became like the frog thrown into a boiling pot. We're jumping out now.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI wish that were true re: the Mondale-Obama comparison, but it's pretty amazing that Obama is still averaging about 44% approval on RCP. I just don't believe the Democrats are willing to abandon him. So if he drops under 45% nationally next year I will be surprised. A GOP win by 10% would be quite an impressive thing: their biggest margin by far since 1988.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseDemocrats are in an inherently stronger position now than in past decades, because of the growing percentages of minority voters and the continuing decline of white voters. And minorities vote much more Democratic than whites.
In 2008, the electorate looked like this: 74% white (lowest in history), 13% black, 9% Hispanic, and maybe 5% other (Asians, Native Americans, I don't know).
The latest Gallup poll has Obama's approval ratings as follows:
White 33%, Black 84%, Hispanic 48%
Do the math: 0.74 * 0.33 + 0.13 * 0.84 + 0.09 * 0.48 = 0.397
or about 40% approve of Obama. Plus those "others" (Asians?), from whom Obama gets another couple points of approval.
It's getting harder and harder for a Republican to win on the strength of the white vote.
If Reagan had to face an electorate that was only 74% white, with 13% black and 9% Hispanic, he might not even have won. In 1980, Reagan got 56% of the white vote, at a time when whites were 88% of the electorate. Today whites are only 74% of the electorate, a 14 point drop. 0.56 * 0.74 = 41.4%. That would have left Reagan 9 points short of a majority of the voters.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusewhoa. If ~NY-09~ goes Repub, in 2012, so will go the Nation.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt will be fascinating to watch the morning news shows tomorrow.
This has to be the lede, right? What tales will they tell to insulate Obama? It should be fun to watch, and by "fun" of course I mean infuriating.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe official line will be that this shows Obama needs to get tougher with the GOP.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseGREAT NEWS!
Take that Obama, Pelosi, Reid, Clinton, etc.
Wasn't Nancy just claiming she would return to the Speaker's position today, if the elections were held?
Another small step in the right direction. Of course, we didn't have time to see the fashion amongst debase Turner as a mere "RINO" pushing a stereotypical image offering which has enormous contradictions.
This is one positive, in the midst of a very difficult time for all Americans.
Time to put the Democrats on the dust heap, we have to do the job, and 2012 is essential.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAhh, good news. So does Weprin keep his assembly seat? If so, when is he up again for that, anyone know?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseEvery 2 years assembly is up. So we rid him in 2012, same as Obama
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse+1 colonel.
Just do a Romney/Perry or Perry/Romney unity ticket, give Newt a serious cabinet post and giant portfolio (OMB *and* OPM), and find spots for Bachman (IRS?) Cain (treasury?) Huntsman (commerce), even Palin (interior? How awesome would that be, Palin over EPA!)... Then focus on the real problem, not the petty infighting.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAccording to AP, the district is 40% Jewish. I'm used to seeing Lutherans having those numbers in much of North Dakota and Minnesota, but an entire district being that Jewish is interesting.
Jews will never become Tea Party activists in any noticable numbers, but perhaps this is a sign that if pushed too hard by the Democrats, they will vote for a Republican.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's gonna turn, albeit slowly. We will get our country back. As frustrating as it seems, it has to go slow or it won't stick. Fast radical change is never good.
The progressives are going to kick and scream at your faces every step of the way. They will accuse you of the most heinous acts we have not seen yet. They are just getting started, but do not let it scare you. It is evil, but evil is a huge coward when you can look it in the eye without fear and without anger. The truth shall prevail because the truth has no agenda.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIt's gonna turn, albeit slowly. We will get our country back. As frustrating as it seems, it has to go slow or it won't stick. Fast radical change is never good.
The progressives are going to kick and scream at your faces every step of the way. They will accuse you of the most heinous acts we have not seen yet. They are just getting started, but do not let it scare you. It is evil, but evil is a huge coward when you can look it in the eye without fear and without anger. The truth shall prevail because the truth has no agenda.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse"A 'Tea' Grows In Brooklyn"
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAs seen on the net elsewhere: SOBs 2 - Hoffa et al 0.
Great news.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe headline on Politico: "Voters rebuke Obama in special House elections."
Priceless.
Get the eviction notice ready.
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