The Obama administration needs money — a lot of money — to pay for past and future stimulus, particularly because its so-called stimulus proposals have failed to reduce unemployment and will continue to fail. That’s why it’s not surprising that the president is once again trying to get tax revenue from the people with the most money to spare, hence the new proposal for a tax meant to hit millionaires – in this case the so-called Buffett tax, named after billionaire Warren Buffett — which would prevent millionaires from paying lower tax rates than middle-class Americans.
First of all, let me note that there is something unseemly about the idea that a super-millionaire like Warren Buffett should be setting tax policy, no matter how talented and successful he is as a businessman. If Warren Buffett would like to pay more taxes, he should simply send a check to the federal government instead of imposing his love for high taxes on other successful Americans.
Buffett also wants to impose his vision for how big the government should be, since ultimately, the fight over how much the government collects in tax revenue isn’t just about tax burden, it’s also about how much the government intervenes in our lives. Obviously, Warren Buffett likes having spending at its current 25.3 percent level, which is why he is trying to find ways to pay for it. Yet not everyone shares Buffett’s views about the proper size of government. I certainly don’t, and I assume the millions of voters who took a stand on November 2010 and asked that government spending be reduced don’t either.
Second, there is usually a huge discrepancy between who is targeted by a given tax and who actually pays that tax (more on that at the end of the post), so anyone calling for increasing taxes should be careful. In this case, I would go further: It is incredibly irresponsible for these super-millionaires to be calling for more taxes, because no matter how willing they are to pay more taxes themselves, the burden will likely fall on many people making a lot less money than they do.
For one thing, if the tax discourages earning from higher income people or reduce their wealth it could hinder job creation, hence hurting non millionaire Americans. A few years ago when the idea of a millionaire tax was first floated, an acquaintance who manages a hedge fund told me:
Economically, the play will disincentive folks like me to work—the tax now puts me well over the 50% tax bracket, will give me an incentive to find better tax strategies to protect my wealth and earnings and ultimately lead to a DECREASE in jobs for the U.S.
Such policies could have dramatic effects in the current economic climate. For one thing, while the president is catering to its liberal base, these announcements of more taxes in the future are signaling to the American people that things are not about to get better. This new plan is just more of the same and it’s not going to help lift the current uncertainty and business paralysis.
Of course, the White House disputes that the president is seeking tax increases in the current weak economy because the new taxes won’t be collected until 2013. But that’s not helping. Why would anyone make long-term plans to invest and hire new employees today knowing that taxes will take more of your income and wealth in two years?
I am skeptical that this tax will increase revenue that much. With taxes like this one, dynamic effects really matter — bad incentives will discourage earning and cut into tax revenue, which defies the point, doesn’t it? James Pethokoukis reminds us:
Higher taxes on small business and entrepreneurs would slow growth and reduce tax revenue. It would also encourage greater efforts at tax avoidance. The 1993 Clinton tax hikes, for instance, only generated a third of the revenue that CBO forecasted. And those increases were instituted when the economy was growing at a steady 3% clip, not stuck in slow-growth mode like the U.S. economy currently is. From Obama’s speech, the it seems to me that the Buffett Rule is probably a special capital gains tax rate of 28 percent for people making $1 million a year.
The president spends a lot of time talking about the fairness of the tax code. The question here is, “Do the rich pay their fair share in taxes?” The top 1 percent of income earners pay 38 percent of income taxes and earn 20 percent of income, which is highly progressive (more here).
In addition, Harvard University’s Greg Mankiw has a good article on NBER where he explains why Buffett’s claims doesn’t hold water. For instance, when Buffett talks about how he only pays 17.7 percent of his income in tax, he is likely misleading his audience.
One might wonder how Mr. Buffett gets away with a tax rate of only 17.7 percent, while a typical millionaire is paying so much more. Most likely, part of the answer is that Mr. Buffett’s income is made up largely of dividends and capital gains, which are taxed at only 15 percent. Bycontrast, many other top earners pay the maximum ordinary income tax rate of 35 percent on their salaries, bonuses, and business income.The distinction is crucial for understanding how much the rich pay. Indeed, the share o top incomes coming from capital is much lower now than it has been historically. According to the Piketty and Saez data, for the very richest Americans — those in the top 0.01 percent of the distribution — the percentage of income derived from capital fell from 71 percent in 1929 to 33percent in 2007. If your image of the typical rich person is someone who collects interest and dividend checks and spends long afternoons relaxing on his yacht, you are decades out of date.The leisure class has been replaced by the working rich.
Another piece of the puzzle is that Mr. Buffett’s tax burden is larger than it first appears,because he is a major shareholder in Berkshire Hathaway. When the C.B.O. studies the tax burden, it includes all federal taxes, including individual income taxes, payroll taxes, and corporate income taxes. In its analysis, payroll taxes are borne by workers, and corporate taxes by the owners of capital. For the richest 1 percent of the population, 10.4 percentage points of their 31.2 percent tax rate comes from the taxes that corporations have paid on their behalf. The corporate tax would undoubtedly loom large if the C.B.O. were to calculate Mr. Buffett’ s effective tax rate.
So it is simply wrong to say we don’t have a progressive tax system. The best analysis shows that average federal tax rates rise steeply with income.
To conclude, it seems that at the very least Mr. Buffett should be careful of what he wishes for. That he has the president’s ear may lead to more taxes on others, and less fairness by important standards.
I wrote about the millionaire tax in Reason back in February 2010 during the health-care debate.
Among other things, the reason why Buffet pays less than his secretary, is because of his investment in non-taxable assets, and his ability to convert regular income into capital gains.
This proposal is to raise income tax rates, so it wouldn't impact how much taxes Buffet pays anyway.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseRemember during the nineties when all rich people stopped working because their taxes were too high and the economy tanked as a result?
Neither do I.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseUh, what's your point again? Clinton cut the capital gains tax rate (from 28% to 20%; revenue increased as a result). And the author was talking specifically about the bad effects of increased taxes on capital gains (not income taxes), which is what the Buffet rule is all about (the lower effective tax rate is from the fact that capital gains are taxed at a lower rate than straight-up income). Unlike a straight-up income tax, a capital gains tax-increase directly discourages investment, and investment fuels jobs. Rich people invest more, so investment would be disproportinately impacted by such a tax.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abusemy point is: isn't the capital gains tax now at 15% and the GOP wants it at zero?
And she was not specifically talking about JUST the capital gains tax.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseOr how about during the eighties, when Ronald Reagan raised taxes almost every year and had a top marginal rate of -- egad! -- 38.5%?
Rich people -- excuse me, I mean "job creators" -- must be a lot lazier than they used to be.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWe need less Buffet and more Jobs.
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Let's not forget that the current set of billionaires, like Buffet, have already made their billions. A new tax isn't retroactive, so, even if they take an income instead of living off investments, they will STILL have BILLIONS.
All this does is prevent other people from obtaining such lofty personal wealth levels, penalises success and discourages advancement.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseHas Buffett been asked yet how he squares this clamoring for higher taxes on individuals with the fact that Berkshire is in arrears on corporate taxes??
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAll of his life, Buffet has been singularly obsessed with creating wealth. In 2008, he discovered a new way to funnel wealth in his direction: suck money from the taxpayers by cozying up to politicians in Washington and affecting lawmaking that favors his companies.
This is a game that I'll bet Buffet found incredibly easy for him; easier than the other ways he has made money. Now that he has had a taste for this new venture, he can't get enough of it. So he wants all of us taxed more so he has a larger honey pot to draw from.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIn addition to liberal Democrats, all those folks who have not the ambition, the ingenuity or the inclination to be millionaires want to tax millionaires.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI still like a better plan - if you are billionaire you owe $1B dollars or 50% of all your earnings and investment income - all of it - which ever is higher. As a penalty for being successful as well as parroting dem talking points while you pay tax attorneys and lobbyists more money that you pay your secretary to keep your taxes low.
Let's call it the Bite that Hand that Feeds You Act.
The other advantage is that soon we won't have anymore billionaires! See how enlightenedly liberal and progressive I am?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIs this where we get to watch the GOP get grossly out of synch with the general public? It was pretty sweet watching that happen back in 2006 and 2008, and getting to watch the party's base rebrand itself as a non-GOP, anti-GW Bush grassroots movement after the fall out. Just like in 2006, the GOP is grossly out of step with the public on this and it's going to cost you the election. Too funny! After you get rejected at the polls (and yes, I'll be here on Nov 4 to say "I told you so"), what will you rebrand yourselves as? I suggest something with a pirate theme this next go-around.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseMme. De Rugy,
You made an important observation: "there is usually a huge discrepancy between who is targeted by a given tax and who actually pays that tax".
You're spot on there.
One simple appeal to observed history should be sufficient on this point: the AMT. Let's leave aside for a second the merits of trying to soak the rich. Let's just focus on the narrower question of whether you do actually soak the rich.
The AMT was created specifically to target 155 wealthy households.
155!
And now (partially thanks to the inflation that results from the moral hazard of having purely fiat money) it's a vampire on the middle class that has to be "patched" every year.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseYou know, of course, that Obama has spoken many times about how he wants to get rid of the AMT.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuseratgov,
I hate giving any standing to to troll posts by responding to them, but I feel the need to correct your egregious disengenuity and ignorance.
Herewith, some responses:
1. My comment about the AMT was to illustrate Mme. De Rugy's point that taxation is one of those screwy things that ends up being very different in implementation than it was in conception. Your post doesn't contest that, does it? And yet, it manages to be recklessly ignorant in defending more such social engineering with the tax system. Don't you get it? The point is that in practice it won't be what you thought it would be when you conceived it.
2. What relevance does it have to Mme. De Rugy's post, or to my post, that Obama has said he might want to get rid of the AMT?
3. Do you seriously expect us to take at his word Obama's supposed desire to eliminate the AMT? Really? The guy who goes off about millionaires -- and then defines that later as families making $250,000 per year. The guy who routinely hides the ball, misrepresents, and never misses a moment to make profoundly unserious, though disturbingly demagogic, tax proposals?
Sure, he might eliminate the AMT. By imposing enough new taxes on "the wealthy" to render the AMT utterly irrelevant!
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWarren already showed you his hand on what he thinks about how the federal government spends money. He's donated substantially all of his money to Bill Gate's charity. You would think if Buffet were so concerned about the lack of revenue the gov't has he would give the gov't his money when he dies. But no! If Warren won't give money to this entity when he's dead, why does he insist those still alive continue to feed the beast? He is inconsistent.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseWarren already showed his hand on his opinion of how the federal gov't spends your money. He's giving all of his money to Bill Gate's charity when he dies. So if Buffet won't give his billions to the gov't when he's dead and can't possibly use it, how can he ask people who are alive to feed the beast? He's being inconsistent.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseQuestion: "Who wants to tax a millionaire?"
Answer: A large majority of the public according to polls.
Question: Who will win in 2012?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseAnswer: Obama.
So you cherry pick the polls for one that agrees with your first "Question" but don't mention those same polls that indicate just how unpopular Obama has become with the public in response to your second "Question."
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseObama says his millionaire tax "Isn't class warfare, it's math."
Here's some other math for you, SCOAMF: $258,000 per job created or saved.
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